UFC on ABC 4 First Look: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida Betting Picks, Odds and Predictions

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Our Top Betting Pick for UFC on ABC 4

Rozenstruik vs. Almeida: Under 1 ½ Rounds (-205) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)


Rozenstruik vs. Almeida Key Facts

  • Almeida is riding a 13-fight win streak, with all four UFC bouts ending inside the distance.
  • Rozenstruik has 7 wins in the UFC, all by way of knockout.
  • Under 1.5 rounds has landed in 7 of Rozenstruik’s 11 UFC contests.
  • Under 1.5 rounds has landed in 3 of Almeida’s 4 UFC bouts.

The Spectrum Center in Charlotte, North Carolina, will host a highly stacked UFC on ABC card this weekend as heavyweight behemoths will slug it out in the main event.

Undefeated Brazilian standout Jailton Almeida will challenge top-ranked KO artist Jairzinho Rozenstruik. The betting lines heavily favor the former, but we’ve found some respectable betting value from this main event battle.

Read on for our complete betting guide with an early preview of the UFC on ABC 4 main event clash between Rozenstruik and Almeida, including updated UFC odds and our free expert UFC picks, predictions, and analysis.

UFC on ABC 4 Information

  • When: Saturday, May 13, 2023 – 10:05 PM EDT
  • Where: Spectrum Center, Charlotte, North Carolina
  • Scheduled Bouts: 12
  • Main Event: Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs. Jailton Almeida
  • Moneyline Probability: Rozenstruik – 20.4% (+390) / Almeida – 82.6% (-475)
  • Totals Probability: Over 1.5 – 37.7% (+165) / Under 1.5 – 67.2% (-205)

UFC on ABC 4 Rozenstruik vs. Almeida: Tale of the Tape

Jairzinho Rozenstruik

  • Age: 35
  • Height: 6’2”
  • Reach: 78”
  • Nationality: Suriname
  • Affiliation: American Top Team
  • Current Streak: 1 win
  • Pro MMA Record: 13-4-0
  • UFC Record: 7-4 [7 KO/TKO]
  • Moneyline Betting History (Last 3): -175 (win), +150 (lost), +280 (lost)

Jailton Almeida

  • Age: 31
  • Height: 6’3”
  • Reach: 79”
  • Nationality: Brazil
  • Affiliation: Galpao da Luta
  • Current Streak: 13 wins
  • Pro MMA Record: 18-2-0
  • UFC Record: 4-0 [2 KO/TKO, 2 submissions]
  • Moneyline Betting History (Last 3): -1100 (win), -700 (win), -575 (win)

Fighter Profile: Jairzinho “Bigi Boy” Rozenstruik

Two factors are guaranteed when ‘Bigi Boy’ steps into the cage. He’s going to enter with a striking offensive game plan, and he’ll be headhunting for a knockout from the opening bell.

The journey to UFC gold has faced stumbling blocks since his arrival to the top heavyweight rankings. But don’t be fooled; knockout wins over notable names such as Alistair Overeem and Junior dos Santos are evidence of his capabilities.

Derailing an up-and-coming prospect in Almeida is next on the agenda for Rozenstruik. And if anyone can achieve this feat, a man with scary one-punch KO power and a credible UFC resume is the perfect match.

Jairzinho Rozenstruik Accomplishments

  • UFC Performance of the Night (three times).
  • Kickboxing heavyweight champion in 6 promotions.

Rozenstruik Best Moneyline Odds: +390 at BetOnline

Fighter Profile: Jailton “Malhadinho” Almeida

Entering just his fifth UFC bout to date, the highly touted Jailton Almeida is already headlining as UFC main event and can now break the top-10 rankings with a significant win this weekend.

A 13-fight win streak and four consecutive wins inside the UFC octagon have led Almeida to this point. Not forgetting that his four UFC wins thus far have been obtained by either KO/TKO or submission. He’s a heavyweight highlight reel specialist but now must face the toughest challenge of his pro career in Jairzinho Rozenstruik.

Jailton Almeida Accomplishments

  • UFC Performance of the Night (two times).
  • FON Light Heavyweight Champion (one time).
  • Thunder Fight Light Heavyweight Champion (one time, former).

Almeida Best Moneyline Odds: -475 at BetOnline


UFC on ABC 4 Main Event Fight Statistics

  • Almeida has landed 4.19 significant strikes per minute (UFC).
  • Rozenstruik has landed 2.93 significant strikes per minute (UFC).
  • Rozenstruik has absorbed 3.23 significant strikes per minute (UFC).
  • Almeida has absorbed 0.34 significant strikes per minute (UFC).
  • Almeida owns a takedown average of 6.73 per 15 minutes (UFC).
  • Rozenstruik has a takedown defense of 75%.

UFC on ABC 4 Skillset Analysis: Styles Make Fights

We can analyze Almeida’s pro-MMA career to date and automatically assume it’ll be a grappling game plan in place for his meeting with Rozenstruik. After all, there won’t be many willing participants looking to trade strikes with the kickboxing background of ‘Bigi Boy’.

Keeping the breakdown simple, we must examine Rozenstruik’s takedown defense and ground ability. The numbers show a 75% takedown defense, but this doesn’t reveal the entire story. Unfortunately for him, these numbers are padded with half-hearted takedown attempts by Overeem and Ciryl Gane.

The problem with backing Almeida on the moneyline is that he hasn’t faced much resistance in octagon thus far, and more noticeably, the massively juiced line. He’s run through the competition, and they were notably a lower level of opposition.

Oppositely, Rozenstruik has fought a high level of competition and has proven to face and overcome adversity. That said, we can bank on this fight ending quickly.

Under 1 ½ Rounds: The UFC 288 Best Bet Formula

The available UFC odds at U.S. betting sites have juiced the under ½ rounds to -205. But in a fight where value is scarce for UFC picks, it’s one of the lone relatively reasonable prices with a highly probable outcome.

Almeida wastes no time and has finished 17 of his 20 pro fights under the 1.5-round mark. And with this under play, Rozenstruik’s KO power has paid dividends in 92% of his career wins – most of which arrived within one and a half rounds.

UFC Pick: Under 1 ½ Rounds (-205) [2.05u to win 1u] at BetOnline


UFC on ABC 4 Main Card & Odds

UFC on ABC 4 Preliminary Card & Odds

*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.