UFC Fight Night Co-Main First Look: Michelle Waterson vs. Amanda Lemos, Betting Picks, Odds, and Predictions

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Michelle Waterson poses during a ceremonial weigh-in for UFC 229 at T-Mobile Arena. Ethan Miller/Getty Images/AFP.

The UFC returns to our screens for another talent-filled Fight Night event on ABC. Women’s flyweight contenders Michelle Waterson and Amanda Lemos will compete in the evening’s co-main event.

Read on for our complete betting guide taking a first look at Waterson and Lemos, including updated UFC odds and our free expert UFC picks, predictions, and analysis.

Michelle Waterson vs. Amanda Lemos

UFC Women’s Strawweight Co-Main Event Bout

Saturday, July 16, 2022 – 02:00 PM EDT at UBS Arena

Michelle Waterson

Fighter Profile

  • Pro MMA Record: 18-9-0 | 3 KOs, 9 submissions
  • Age: 36
  • Height: 5'3"
  • Reach: 62.0"
  • Trains With: Jackson Wink MMA
  • Origin Fighting Style: Karate

Fighter Analysis

For the previous seven years, Michelle Waterson has been competing at the highest level of professional MMA in the UFC women’s strawweight division. Her resume boasts some of the most notable names in women’s MMA, and aged 36, she returns to the octagon following a main event barn-burner with upcoming prospect Marina Rodriguez.

A lifelong practice in karate and a career in modeling is where the nickname “The Karate Hottie” stems from. Still, with the help of UFC legend Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone, Waterson stopped posing for the camera and began fighting in front of it on a full-time basis instead.

Waterson is now faced with another rising contender. Although I wouldn’t expect the Albuquerque, New Mexico, native to challenge for the title during this stage of her career, she’s undoubtedly the gatekeeper many challengers will need to go through.

Michelle Waterson Best Available Odds: +280 at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)


Amanda Lemos

Fighter Profile

  • Pro MMA Record: 11-2-1 | 7 KOs, 2 submissions
  • Age: 35
  • Height: 5'4"
  • Reach: 65.0"
  • Trains With: Marajo Brothers Team
  • Origin Fighting Style: Muay Thai

Fighter Analysis

Amanda Lemos is no spring chicken aged 35-year-sold. Still, the Brazilian-born is relatively young in her pro MMA career compared to her peers. After eight years of hard work, she’s finally reached the limelight of women’s competition.

A six-year unbeaten record obtained on the Brazilian regional scene earnt Lemos her position on the UFC rankings. Still, a debut loss to Leslie Smith was a serious wake-up call for the dangerous striker who tasted defeat for the first time. To make matters worse, a USADA suspension stunted her growth at the top even further. However, since her return to the octagon in 2019, she’s bulldozed through the competition to reach the top-10 rankings.

Lemos returns to the octagon following the first submission loss of her career versus the former champion, Jessica Andrade. Still, a victory over “The Karate Hottie” will put her back on track to make a claim at title contention.

Amanda Lemos Best Available Odds: -340 at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)


Waterson vs. Lemos: Fight Breakdown

Waterson’s Fight Style and How Can She Defeat Lemos

Waterson loves to utilize her kicks, where she often excels with the assistance of her karate background. Her opponent next week is lethal at range with a muay thai offense that has left damaged most opponents.

If Waterson wants to kick, she’ll be open for the jabs coming straight down the pipe.

I want to suggest a grappling approach for Waterson’s game plan, but she’ll need to be patient with her shots, and hopefully, she can wear down the power of Lemos and remove the knockout threat.

Lemos Fight Style and How Can She Defeat Waterson

Lemos is a low-volume power puncher. She regularly sets up her combinations with the push jab. She enjoys using the front kick and will headhunt most of her opponents from the opening bell.

Defeating Waterson won’t be a simple task as she’ll be faced with a talented at-range striker. Throwing kicks may not be as accessible with the takedown threat of Waterson also looming.

I believe the best game for Lemos would be to remain patient, utilize her significant reach advantage and carefully make her way to the inside.


Waterson vs. Lemos: Betting Pick and Odds

The available odds at the best sportsbooks and betting sites favor Lemos by a significant margin, and although I do believe she can put the damage on Waterson throughout three rounds, it’s the durability of Waterson that I’m willing to rely on.

Waterson has never been stopped via strikes during her UFC tenure, and she most recently survived five rounds with Marina Rodriguez. For a much greater price, take the Over 2 ½ rounds as there is no betting value in the favorite.

UFC Pick: Over 2 ½ Rounds (-230) [2.30u returns 1u profit] at Bovada

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Over 2 ½ Rounds (-230)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.