UFC Pick: Neal vs. Rakhmonov – Over 1½ Rounds (-145) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
We’re back covering another weekend of fights, and our set of carefully selected UFC prop betting picks is primed as we dive into the betting analysis for the UFC 285 fight card from the T-Mobile Arena this Saturday.
The UFC 285 prop betting markets are now available at U.S. betting sites; continue reading for our perfect proposition wagers.
Picks Summary
- Geoff Neal vs. Shavkat Rakhmonov: Over 1½ Rounds (-145)
- Viviane Araujo vs. Amanda Ribas: Araujo on Points (+185)
UFC 285 Information
- Date & Time: Saturday, March 4, 2023 – 05:30 PM EST
- Location: T-Mobile Arena
- Scheduled Fights: 14
- Main Event: Jon Jones vs. Ciryl Gane (UFC Heavyweight Championship Bout)
Our UFC 285 Prop Bets
Neal/Rakhmonov Over 1 ½ Rounds (-145) Reasoning
Rakhmonov is a proven finisher, and Neal’s punching power is scary. However, the durability of both fighters is exceptional, and neither man has displayed cardio issues in the past.
Rakhmonov has a lot of stoppages on his record, but they aren’t limited to round one, and if Magny can drag him into the end of round two, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Neal – a fighter who’s never been finished in the UFC – achieve the same.
UFC Pick: Over 1½ Rounds (-145) at Bookmaker
Viviane Araujo on Points (+185) Reasoning
Araujo has won 4 of her last 7 fights by decision, and Amanda Ribas has gone the distance in 4 of her previous 6. Ribas is no slouch, but she’ll need a grappling advantage to find success, and I don’t expect her to have the strength to overpower and ground Araujo continuously.
This will lead to a standing war, and Araujo is undoubtedly the more skilled striker of the two.
UFC Pick: Araujo on Points (+185) at Bookmaker
Geoff Neal vs. Shavkat Rakhmonov
UFC 285 Welterweight Bout
Saturday, March 5, 2023 – 05:30 PM EST at T-Mobile Arena
Geoff Neal
Geoff Neal (15-4-0) is among the most overlooked and underrated 175 lb fighters in the top 15 rankings. The Texas native has compiled a 7-2 record since joining the roster in 2018, including back-to-back success over top-tier strikers Vicente Luque and Santiago Ponzinibbio.
Neal brings a fierce striking offense inside the cage and a level of power that owns the potential to drop anybody before the 15-minute time limit is reached.
Shavkat Rakhmonov
Shavkat Rakhmonov (16-0-0) has rapidly evolved from a UFC welterweight prospect into a top 10-ranked fighter two or three wins away from title contention. He’s displayed dominance in the octagon that’s provided four consecutive stoppages inside the distance, as many critics believe he’s the next big after Khamzat Chimaev.
However, can his overbearing skillset continue stopping top-ranked fighters inside the distance? He isn’t fighting the likes of Alex Oliveira or Carlston Harris anymore. Although his well-rounded game is legit, his true finishing ability cannot be confirmed until he displays it versus the elite.
UFC 285: The Prop Bet Breakdown
Without question, Rakhmonov has the tools and fight IQ to overcome the likes of Geoff Neal. The latter has tended to be weaker in grappling situations in past fights, and a striker who can utilize leg kicks and range management has also overcome the power puncher in Neal.
However, with such a discrepancy in the moneyline price, there’s no viable betting position on Rakhmonov, which leads us to the Over/Under totals market.
The Pick
Neal has been stopped inside the distance on two occasions from 19 professional bouts, and nobody has defeated him via KO/TKO or submission during his UFC tenure. His striking defense is primed to deal with power punchers, just ask Niko Price, Mike Perry, Ponzinibbio, and Luque – four powerful strikers who failed at testing the chin of Neal.
Yes, Rakhmonov has displayed a BJJ offense that could hinder the over. But, with the line set at over 1.5 rounds for a respected -145, expecting Neal to ride out at least 50% of the three scheduled rounds isn’t a big ask for a competitor with notable defense and cardio.
The available UFC odds favor Rakhmonov by a landslide. In my opinion, the moneyline is untouchable, but as previously mentioned, the Over 1½ is delivering some excellent value based on the factors we’ve already discussed.
UFC Pick: Over 1½ Rounds (-145) at Bookmaker
Viviane Araujo vs. Amanda Ribas
UFC 285 Women’s Flyweight Bout
Saturday, March 5, 2023 – 05:30 PM EST at T-Mobile Arena
Viviane Araujo
Viviane Araujo (11-4-0) will return to the octagon following a decision loss to this weekend’s flyweight title challenger, Alexa Grasso. She’s an excellent all-rounder with skills on the feet and in grappling exchanges.
Still, with her previous bout coming against a notable boxer, she did display a noteworthy ability to unleash her fists on a technical level.
Amanda Ribas
Brazilian Amanda Ribas (10-3-0) owns a similar record and recent win/loss record to Araujo. Although she’s displayed serviceable striking, she’s found more success in her takedown and BJJ skillset – specifically when utilizing the head and arm throw, which we’ve witnessed countless times.
UFC 285: The Prop Bet Analysis
Both women are tough as nails, and outside of Ribas’ throws, I don’t envision this fight spending much time on the ground.
For this reason, we must respect Araujo’s boxing. Araujo is the cleaner, more technical striker of the two, and she’ll likely enter this bout as the stronger fighter, thus allowing her to keep this fight standing.
In the expectation of a 3-round striking war, Araujo is the side based on her shot selection, power, and overall boxing fundamentals.
The Pick
The available UFC odds slightly favor Ribas on the moneyline. That’s good news for Araujo prop bettors because we’re receiving plus money from all angles for our UFC picks.
Araujo to win by decision is holding too much value at +185. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Ribas snatch a takedown or two, but she doesn’t own the top game to keep it there. Araujo commonly reaches the judges’ scorecards, and for a near 2/1 price for her to achieve victory, it’s a betting price that cannot be overlooked.
UFC Pick: Araujo on Points (+185) at Bookmaker
UFC 285 Main Card & Odds
- Jon Jones vs. Ciryl Gane [UFC Heavyweight Championship Bout]
- Valentina Shevchenko vs. Alexa Grasso [UFC Women’s Flyweight Title Bout]
- Geoff Neal vs. Shavkat Rakhmonov [UFC Welterweight Bout]
- Mateusz Gamrot vs. Jalin Turner [UFC Lightweight Bout]
- Bo Nickal vs. Jamie Pickett [UFC Middleweight Bout]
UFC 285 Preliminary Card & Odds
- Cody Garbrandt vs. Trevin Jones [UFC Bantamweight Bout]
- Derek Brunson vs. Dricus Du Plessis [UFC Middleweight Bout]
- Viviane Araujo vs. Amanda Ribas [UFC Women’s Flyweight Bout]
- Julian Marquez vs. Marc-Andre Barriault [UFC Middleweight Bout]
- Ian Machado Garry vs. Kenan Song [UFC Welterweight Bout]
- Mana Martinez vs. Cameron Saaiman [UFC Bantamweight Bout]
- Jessica Penne vs. Tabatha Ricci [UFC Women’s Strawweight Bout]
- Da’Mon Blackshear vs. Farid Basharat [UFC Bantamweight Bout]
- Loik Radzhabov vs. Esteban Ribovics [UFC Lightweight Bout]
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
