UFC 285 First Look: Jones vs. Gane Betting Picks, Odds, and Prediction

profile image of David Manyun
ufc first look rectangle

Our Top Betting Pick for UFC 285 

UFC Pick: Ciryl Gane ML (+140) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

Bovada logo
Ciryl Gane ML (+140)
Visit Site

Jon Jones’s long-awaited return is less than a week away. Not only will he step up a weight class, but he’ll be competing for the vacated heavyweight championship against the formidable Ciryl Gane in the UFC 285 main event this weekend in Las Vegas. 

Read on for our complete betting guide with an early preview of the UFC Vegas 285 main event clash of the titans between Jones and Gane, including updated UFC odds and our free expert UFC betting picks, predictions, and analysis. 

Check out the best US betting sites available in order to make secure wagers in your own home state.

UFC 285 Best Bet 

Ciryl Gane Moneyline Reasoning    

Speed, power, movement, unpredictable offensive striking, and durability – Gane owns the tools to give Jon Jones a nightmare debut in the heavyweight division.

Skillset-for-skillset, Jones is unquestionably the superior martial artist. Still, given his lackluster performances over the past five years, a three-year layoff, and a weight division step-up straight into the top rankings, it could be a long night for Jonny “Bones” Jones.   

Confidence Rating: 3/5   

UFC 285 Information 

  • When: Saturday, March 4, 2023 – 05:30 PM EST   
  • Where: T-Mobile Arena
  • Main Event: Jon Jones vs. Ciryl Gane [UFC Heavyweight Championship Bout] 
  • Moneyline Probability: Jones – 61.5% (-160) Gane – 41.7% (+140)  
  • Totals Probability: Over 4.5 – 53.3% (-114) Under 4.5 – 46.3% (+116)    

UFC 285 Jones vs. Gane: Tale of the Tape 

Jon Jones 

  • Age: 35 
  • Height: 6’4” 
  • Reach: 84.5”  
  • Nationality: United States 
  • Affiliation: Jackson’s MMA Acoma/Fight Ready   
  • Current Streak: 4 wins   
  • Pro MMA Record: 26-1-0   
  • UFC Record: 20-1 [5 KO/TKO, 5 submissions, 10 decisions]  
  • Moneyline Betting History (Last 3): -500 (win), -550 (win), -800 (win) 

Ciryl Gane 

  • Age: 32 
  • Height: 6’4” 
  • Reach: 81”  
  • Nationality: France 
  • Affiliation: MMA Factory   
  • Current Streak: 1 win   
  • Pro MMA Record: 11-1-0   
  • UFC Record: 8-1 [3 KO/TKO, 2 submissions, 3 decisions]  
  • Moneyline Betting History (Last 3): -575 (win), -145 (loss), -320 (win)  

UFC 285 Main Event Profiles 

Jon “Bones” Jones     

When listing the combat sports accomplishments of Jon Jones, we could merely list just 25% of his overall achievements in professional mixed martial arts.

Highly regarded as the greatest fighter of all time, fans of the UFC have eagerly awaited his return to the octagon since last seeing him compete against Dominick Reyes in 2020; little did they know the return would be as a heavyweight competitor.  

Unlike most weight class switches between MMA fighters, Jones hasn’t rushed this process and has been building his new physique for the previous three years. We’ve seen the images, snippets of his training, and the former light heavyweight champion, the GOAT, and UFC Hall of Famer look jacked and primed to tackle the monstrous competitors of the 205-256lb division.   

There are countless questions surrounding the return of Jon Jones, but none bigger than unknown about transitioning his elite-level abilities across to a higher weight class. With an evitable drop in speed, extra muscle, and the hardest hitters in combat sports standing before him, can the former No.1 pound-for-pound greatest continue to build his legacy?  

Jon Jones Combat Sports Accomplishments  

  • UFC Light Heavyweight Champion (Two times, eleven overall defenses) 
  • Longest Light Heavyweight champion reign in UFC history (1501 days)  
  • Longest unbeaten streak in UFC history (18)  
  • Most wins in UFC title fights (14)  
  • Youngest fighter to win a UFC Championship (23 years old)  
  • UFC Fight of the Night (Four times)  
  • UFC Knockout of the Night (One time)  
  • UFC Submission of the Night (two times)  
  • UFC Performance of the Night (One time)  
  • UFC Hall of Fame (Fight Wing) vs. Alexander Gustafsson (UFC 165)  
  • Former amateur college wrestling champion  

Best Available Odds: Jon Jones ML (-160) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

Ciryl “Bon Gamin” Gane     

The fighting pride of France, Ciryl Gane, took the MMA world by storm when entering the UFC heavyweight division and winning seven consecutive bouts straight to a UFC championship bout. His light footwork, fast hands, and agile athleticism displayed a new generation of heavyweight fighters.

Aside from losing to former champion Francis Ngannou, Gane has steamrolled the competition without breaking a sweat.  

Gane steps into his second championship opportunity on Saturday evening due to the failed contract agreements between the UFC and Ngannou. He’s dealt with the pressure of a title bout, gone five rounds with the hardest hitter in the sport, and will now be faced with the opportunity of taking out one of the most notorious names in professional mixed martial arts.   

Ciryl Gane Combat Sports Accomplishments   

  • Interim UFC Heavyweight Championship (One time)  
  • UFC Performance of the Night (Two times)  
  • UFC Fight of the Night (One time)  
  • TKO World Heavyweight Champion (One time, two defenses)  

Best Available Odds: Ciryl Gane ML (+140) at Bovada

UFC 285 Main Event Fight Statistics:  

  • Ciryl Gane lands 5.11 sig strikes per minute  
  • Jon Jones lands 4.3 sig strikes per minute  
  • Jones’ striking defense is 64%, with the comeback on Gane at 62%  
  • Jones’ takedown average is 1.85 per 15 minutes with an accuracy of 44%  
  • Gane’s takedown defense is 55%   

UFC 285 Skillset Analysis: Styles Make Fights   

First of all, this isn’t a simple fight to break down or predict, primarily because Jon Jones has been absent from competition for three years, and more concerningly, he’s stepping up a weight class. Multiple variables surround his move to heavyweight, and the biggest red flag is the unknown.  

Jones has utilized a high level of grappling throughout his career, but his previous three fights at light heavyweight didn’t display these attributes. Whether or not he will decide to wrestle or clinch isn’t known, but the bigger question is, can he manhandle 250lbs+ of weight?  

The advantage for Ciryl Gane will undoubtedly be his striking offense. High kicks, "teep" kicks, smooth footwork, consistent lateral movement, and head movement aren’t something Jones’ has had to deal with in the past, let alone up a weight division.  

I can’t envision Jones controlling Gane on the ground or in clinched positions for 25 minutes. While he unquestionably owns a notable striking offense of his own, I don’t anticipate his skills making a huge impact in the heavyweight weight class as they once did at 205 lbs.  

Based on the unknown, picking Jones comes with a huge risk factor. Gane is one of the fastest heavyweights and knows how to carry 230-plus pounds in the octagon, and while Jones should own the fight IQ and durability to reach the scorecards, I believe it’ll be the Frenchman’s hand getting raised… and new!    

Gane Moneyline: The UFC 285 Best Bet Formula  

The available UFC odds at Bookmakers Review favor Jones, and this isn’t a surprise given his accolades in combat sports and MMA.

However, there are simply too many questions surrounding his weight class move. Gane owns the tools to take advantage of a fighter inexperienced at heavyweight returning from a three-year layoff.  

UFC Pick: Ciryl Gane ML (+140) [1u to win 1.40u] at Bovada

UFC 285 Main Card & Odds 

UFC 285 Preliminary Card & Odds 

*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.