UFC 285 Co-Main Event: Shevchenko vs. Grasso Best Bets, Odds, and Analysis

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Valentina Shevchenko of Kyrgystan celebrates after beating Jessica Andrade of Brazil. Alex Menendez/Getty Images/AFP

Our Top Betting Pick for UFC 285 Co-Main Event

UFC Pick: Valentina Shevchenko Inside the Distance (-160) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

  • Suggested Bet: 1.75u to win 1 unit
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Valentina Shevchenko Inside the Distance (-160)
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A women’s flyweight championship bout will co-headline this Saturday’s pay-per-view event. As “The Bullet” Valentina Shevchenko attempts to build on her already-impressive and record-breaking legacy during this weekend’s UFC 285 co-main event in Las Vegas.

Read on for our complete betting guide with an early preview of the UFC 285 co-main championship bout between Shevchenko and Alexa Grasso, including updated UFC odds and our free expert UFC betting picks, analysis, and predictions.

UFC 285 Co-Main Event Information

  • When: Saturday, March 4, 2023 – 05:30 PM ET
  • Where: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas
  • Main Event: Jon Jones vs. Ciryl Gane [Heavyweight Championship Bout]
  • Co-Main Event: V Shevchenko vs. Alexa Grasso [Women’s Flyweight Title Bout]
  • Co-Main Moneyline Probability: Shevchenko – 86.2% (-625) Grasso – 17.9% (+460)
  • Co-Main Totals Probability: Over 4½ – 45.5% (+120) Under 4½ – 53.5% (-115)

UFC 285 Best Bet

Shevchenko Wins Inside the Distance Reasoning

  • Confidence Rating: 4/5

Shevchenko is the most successful flyweight champion in UFC history and owns more title defenses than any woman… ever! Five of her previous eight bouts were won via submission or TKO/KO, and four stoppages were achieved while she was defending the title. Her skill set is elite in all facets; from grappling to striking, she boasts notable attributes from multiple MMA disciplines. Alexa Grasso will struggle to contend with style variations Shevchenko can adapt to and implement.

UFC 285 Co-Main Event: Tale of the Tape

UFC 285 Co-Main Event: Fighter Profiles

Valentina “Bullet” Shevchenko

Valentina Shevchenko is a mixed martial arts purist, one of the most notable on the UFC roster, in fact - man or woman. With over twenty years of combat sports experience, the current flyweight champion has used her countless MMA abilities to become the most successful UFC women’s flyweight titleholder in the company’s history.

Behind Muay Thai, kickboxing, judo, boxing, and taekwondo experience, is a woman possessed in the octagon that’s dismantled almost every opponent she’s faced to date. Losses up a weight class versus Amanda Nunes and a recent split decision to Taila Santos have been the lone moments in time where we’ve witnessed the “Bullet” face adversity.

Shevchenko has cleared out the flyweight division, so much so the UFC has to match her opponents ranked outside of the top five at 125 lbs. Will Alexa Grasso be the difference maker? According to the 86.2% implied betting probability at the sportsbooks, she won’t.

Valentina Shevchenko Combat Sports Accomplishments

  • UFC Women’s Flyweight Champion (One time, current, seven defenses)
  • Most wins in UFC Women’s Flyweight division history (9)
  • Most title defenses by any woman in UFC history (7)
  • UFC Performance of the Night (Three times)
  • Multi-time Muay Thai World Champion
  • Taekwondo European Championship winner
  • Russian Women’s National Amateur Boxing Champion
  • Kyrgyzstan National Judo Champion
  • Former Kickboxing World Champion

Valentina Shevchenko Best Available Moneyline Odds: -625 at BetOnline

Alexa Grasso

Flying the flag for women’s MMA in central America, Alexa Grasso hopes to emulate the journey of Brandon Moreno and become the second UFC champion born and raised in Mexico.

Since making her UFC debut in 2016, championships and main event fights have eluded Grasso, for the most part. However, following seven years of grinding the strawweight and flyweight rankings, notable wins over names such as Maycee Barber, Joanne Wood, and Viviane Araujo - including assistance from Shevchenko’s success over the top-five ranked – have gifted her the opportunity of a lifetime.

Alexa Grasso Combat Sports Accomplishments

  • UFC Fight of the Night (One time)
  • Invicta FC Fight of the Night (One time)
  • Invicta FC Performance of the Night (One time)

Alexa Grasso Best Available Moneyline Odds: +460 at BetOnline

UFC 285 Co-Main Event Skillset Analysis

Crisp hand combinations and offensive boxing fundamentals have been the story of Grasso’s professional fighting career. She’s excellent at working her opposition from the outside while racking up points on the judges’ scorecards with a significantly high output.

Grasso is nobody's fool on the ground and displayed her jiu-jitsu ability when sinking in a rear-naked choke on top-ranked competitor Joanne Wood. However, her level of grappling doesn’t compare to that of Valentina Shevchenko, and it’s one crucial area of the fight that’s previously been exposed by the likes of Carla Esparza, Tatiana Suarez, and Felice Herrig.

Shevchenko is a complete fighter; she’s comfortable in all areas of the fight game and has dominated opponents with her varied striking offense and takedown/BJJ skillset.

That said, the one game plan that should sail the champ to victory this weekend is her kicking game. Grasso hasn’t faced a kicking machine like Shevchenko, and with a boxing-heavy approach, we could witness her lead leg being chopped up all night long.

Alternatively, Shevchenko will own a grappling advantage. A judo trip or two later, we could be watching Grasso struggling to squirm herself out of a difficult grounded position where the champ is unleashing a barrage of strikes or locking up submissions.

Shevchenko Wins Inside Distance (-160): The UFC 285 Best Bet Formula

The available UFC odds at BetOnline favor Shevchenko heavily, so the moneyline price is out of reach. Unless, of course, you want to wager 6.25u to win 1u, but this is an unadvisable betting position for long-term bettors building a bankroll.

Instead, we’re forced to look at the UFC 285 prop betting market. Even then, bookmakers are savvy to Shevchenko’s dominance and are only offering a -160 on the champ to win the fight inside the distance. However, we believe this is the best betting approach.

Shevchenko has stopped five of her previous eight opponents, and in four of these contests, she was defending the flyweight strap. Furthermore, her skillset is levels above Grasso, and although the Mexican has shown great durability, Shevchenko possesses the fight IQ and attributes to compromise an unsuspecting challenger.

UFC 285 Pick: Over 1.5 Rounds (+125) at BetOnline [1u to win 1.25u]

UFC 285 Main Card & Odds

UFC 285 Preliminary Card & Odds

*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.