UFC Pick: Figueiredo Wins (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
The UFC returns to Brazil for the first-time post-pandemic, as it’s been close to three years since the promotion hosted an event in the country that makes up a massive chunk of their roster pool.
UFC 283 will arrive at the Jeunesse Arena in Rio de Janeiro with two fighters competing for gold. However, as Deiveson Figueiredo and Brandon Moreno duke out for the flyweight strap in the co-main event, history will be made as these men compete in the company’s first-ever quadrilogy bout.
Read on for our complete betting guide taking a first look at this weekend’s co-main event clash between Figueiredo and Moreno, including the updated UFC odds and our free expert UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill betting picks, predictions, and analysis.
Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Brandon Moreno
UFC 283 Co-Main Event Flyweight Championship Bout
Saturday, January 21, 2023 – 06:00 PM EST at the Jeunesse Arena
Deiveson Figueiredo
- Pro MMA Record: 21-2-1 (9 KOs, 8 submissions, 4 decisions)
- UFC Record: 10-2 (4 KOs, 3 submissions, 3 decisions)
- Age: 35
- Height: 5'5"
- Reach: 68.0"
- Training Out Of: Team Figueiredo
- Origin Fighting Style: Wrestling
Six years on the UFC roster, two championship-winning fights, and just two promotional losses from twelve bouts, the tenure of Brazil’s Deiveson Figueiredo has been fruitful heading into his fourth—and likely the final—bout with Brandon Moreno.
It’s no coincidence that Figueiredo is meeting with Moreno in a quadrilogy bout. They’re the two best flyweight competitors on the planet with one draw, one loss, and one win each. This weekend’s bout will determine the successor, while Figueiredo will surrender or retain his coveted championship.
The Damage Factor Favors the Champion
With a background stemming from folk-style wrestling, Brazil’s champion is excellent in scrambling positions and keeping the fight standing. This will undoubtedly be crucial, as the second bout versus Moreno was a rear-naked choke loss—a grounded position he’ll want to avoid at all costs.
Despite his notable wrestling accolades, Figueiredo is most known for his punching power and jiu-jitsu offense. Since arriving on the UFC flyweight roster, he’s obtained four wins by knockout and three via submission. Furthermore, the damage factor of his offensive striking dictated the judges’ decision from his previous meeting with Moreno, which could very well be the deciding factor this weekend.
Deiveson Figueiredo Best Available Odds: -110 at BetOnline
Brandon “The Assassin Baby” Moreno
- Pro MMA Record: 20-6-2 (4 KO/TKO, 15 submissions, 3 decisions)
- UFC Record: 8-3-2 (2 KO/TKO, 3 submissions, 3 decisions)
- Age: 29
- Height: 5'7"
- Reach: 70.0"
- Training Out Of: Glory MMA and Fitness
- Origin Fighting Style: MMA
Regarding heart and determination, there’s potentially no other that provides more of these attributes than Brandon Moreno.
Everyone loves an underdog story, and when Moreno entered his first meeting with Figueiredo, he was priced at +280. The fight ended in a draw, but the Mexican-born fighter proved his worth, and in his championship-winning bout, the odds market gave him much more respect with a +150 price tag.
One More Shot?
Aged just 29 years old, we can’t guarantee that this will be Moreno’s final rodeo as a title challenger should he lose. However, as long as Figueiredo maintains the gold, it’s doubtful that the UFC will schedule a fifth contest between these two fighters.
With this in mind, Moreno does present a diverse skill set that has the potential to shock the world. And this weekend, the bookmakers have finally given up on picking a favorite, as most sportsbooks have placed a -110 set of odds on either side.
This proves how difficult the predictability of this bout will be and therefore making a UFC pick. Regarding skill-for-skill, they’re challenging to separate, specifically in the octagon where anything can happen, as Moreno proved back at UFC 263 when winning the championship.
Brandon Moreno Best Available Odds: -108 at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
Fight Analysis
Figueiredo Fight Style and How Can Figueiredo Beat Moreno?
Power and damage will be Figueiredo's best friends. Finding the kill shot on Moreno hasn’t surfaced from the previous three bouts, but he’s managed to deliver the more powerful strikes. And if we’re using the UFC judging criteria, the damage is vital, as it was in the previous bout between Moreno and Figueiredo.
Moreno will be the fresher fighter as he’s remained active since their last fight, stopping Kai Kara-France with a liver kick to ground strikes. However, the fight is in Brazil, and should the champ find the damaging blows he landed in the third bout, it’ll be a long night for the challenger.
Moreno Fight Style and How Can Moreno Beat Figueiredo?
Moreno is a cardio machine that can unquestionably deliver higher output and pose a threat in later rounds. Unfortunately for him, Brazil is renowned for favoring their fighters on the scorecards, so he should be gunning for a win inside the distance.
Locking up a rear-naked choke is a path to victory that Moreno knows he can achieve. But he is unlikely to catch the champ with this for a second time. He’ll pass guard and hold positions better on the ground than Figgy, but I believe his best chance of victory is to hunt a TKO/KO.
Of course, Figueiredo is the most expected fighter to win via KO/TKO of the two, but this is where Moreno can capitalize. He’s younger, faster, and more durable, and although his one-punch power isn’t a thing, a similar effort from his previous TKO stoppage over Kai Kara-France would be ideal for the Mexican.
Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Brandon Moreno Pick
The available odds at Bookmakers' Review have mixed prices, but most sportsbooks opened the odds with -110 on either side. They’re just as clueless as we are. And this is why the UFC has booked a fourth bout; Figgy and Moreno are at the peak of the flyweight division and have split the results from the previous three meetings.
Considering the fight is in Brazil, and the durability of both men is high, it’s challenging to ignore Figueiredo retaining the championship. His strikes deliver more damage, and this will be easy for the Brazilian judges to give him a decision on whether he wins. Furthermore, in the previous fight, he was able to deliver multiple strikes that came close to ending the contest but subsequently gave him a unanimous decision victory.
Any Americans interested in betting on the UFC 283 events can do so using any of these US betting sites.
UFC Pick: Figueiredo Wins (-110) at BetOnline [1.10u to return 1u]
UFC 283 Main Card & Odds
- Glover Teixeira vs. Jamahal Hill [UFC light heavyweight title bout]
- Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Brandon Moreno [UFC flyweight co-main title bout]
- Paul Craig vs. Johnny Walker [UFC light heavyweight bout]
- Jessica Andrade vs. Lauren Murphy [UFC women’s flyweight bout]
- Gilbert Burns vs. Neil Magny [UFC welterweight bout]
UFC 283 Preliminary Card & Odds
- Gabriel Bonfim vs. Mounir Lazzez [UFC welterweight bout]
- Josiane Nunes vs. Zarah Fairn Dos Santos [UFC women’s featherweight bout]
- Mauricio Rua vs. Ihor Potieria [UFC light heavyweight bout]
- Terrance McKinney vs. Ismael Bonfim [UFC lightweight bout]
- Jailton Almeida vs. Shamil Abdurakhimov [UFC heavyweight bout]
- Warlley Alves vs. Nicolas Dalby [UFC welterweight bout]
- Luan Luiz Lacerda vs. Cody Stamann [UFC bantamweight bout]
- Daniel Marcos vs. Saimon Oliveira [UFC bantamweight bout]
- Thiago Moises vs. Melquizael Costa [UFC lightweight bout]
- Gregory Rodrigues vs. Brunno Ferreira [UFC middleweight bout]
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
