UFC 281 Perfect Prop Bets: Let’s Go Over and Under at MSG

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UFC fighter Dustin Poirier attends UFC 271 at Toyota Center. Carmen Mandato/Getty Images/AFP.

The UFC returns to the world-famous Madison Square Garden on November 12, 2022, and here at Bookmakers Review, our expert analysts have prepared some of the best prop betting picks for UFC 281.

UFC 281 presents a wide selection of tempting odds, but we’ll focus on the under/overs of two incredibly matched bouts this weekend.

The event is headlined by a middleweight championship bout between Israel Adesanya and Alex Pereira. UFC 281 betting odds are now available, so let’s dive into some perfect prop betting picks.

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Dustin Poirier vs. Michael Chandler

UFC 281 Lightweight Bout

Saturday, November 12, 2022 – 06:00 PM EST at Madison Square Garden

Former UFC lightweight champion Dustin Poirier (28-7-0) returns to the octagon following a heartbreaking loss to Charles Oliveira at UFC 269 in 2021.

It’s been close to a year since we’ve seen “The Diamond” in action, but it’s always worth the wait to see the man who defeated Conor McGregor in back-to-back fights take his rightful place back in the UFC octagon.

Fan favorite Michael Chandler (23-7-0) hasn’t touched UFC gold thus far, but he’s become synonymous with being involved in some of the most entertaining lightweight bouts in UFC history.

Matching his round two front kick knockout over Tony Ferguson won’t be easy, but if anybody can deliver unforgettable fight moments, it’s “Iron” Chandler.

Poirier vs. Chandler: Fight Breakdown

There’s a smart, and some would say boring, path to victory for Michael Chandler this weekend. He’s a former standout NCAA Div I wrestler with the skillset to compromise his opponents when engaging in a grappling war.

That said, this man loves to punch while putting on a show for the crowd. For this reason, I wouldn’t expect spammed takedowns from the former Bellator champion, as he knows that the audience wants, and that’s a barn burner on the feet with Dustin Poirier.

Poirier can also hold his own in the grappling realm, but “The Diamond” has shined during his MMA career when utilizing the boxing fundamentals he owns when strapping on the 4oz gloves.

Punching Power

Despite the multiple round-one stoppages both fighters have been involved in and the considerable punching power they both possess.

The importance of this fight could be significant, as the recently crowned lightweight champion, Islam Makhachev, has gone on record to state the winner of this fight could be next in line.

With so much at stake, and the current odds supporting this fight to end quickly, I wouldn’t be surprised if Poirier and Chandler spend the first round feeling each other out and testing the waters.

In addition, should Chandler decide to wrestle, this would severely drain the cardio of both fighters while simultaneously draining the clock.

Poirier vs. Chandler: Odds Analysis and Prediction

The UFC odds with Bookmakers Review show value on the over 1 ½ rounds. Do I believe this fight will end in the distance? Yes, I do.

However, with a plus-money price on the over, and the surrounding factors leading up to this bout, I’m willing to take my chances on seven and a half minutes.

UFC Pick: Over 1 ½ Rounds (+100) [1u returns 1u profit] at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Andre Petroski vs. Wellington Turman

UFC 281 Middleweight Bout

Saturday, November 12, 2022 - 06:00 PM EST at Madison Square Garden

Andre Petroski (8-1-0) has had a delightful beginning to his UFC career, winning three consecutive bouts, each ending via submission.

It was undeniable that the level of competition he faced was going to rise, and now he’ll have the opportunity to let his jiu-jitsu skills shine on the big stage inside Madison Square Garden.

26-year-old Wellington Turman (18-5-0) is walking down the path of many Brazilians before him by gaining a significant amount of MMA experience before reaching his prime.

In his mid-twenties, he’s already competed in 23 professional MMA bouts, and although he’s split his UFC win/loss appearances 3-3, he’s riding the first win streak for the promotion.

Petroski vs. Turman: Fight Breakdown

Two experienced grapplers will collide this weekend, and I can’t help but think another submission finish is on the cards. Turman has finished eight of his career wins by submission, while Petroski has four knockouts and five submission wins to his name.

Notably, Petroski doesn’t like the judges very much. In professional MMA competitions, the product of Renzo Gracie Philly has never fought to a decision, win or lose.

He’s shown an eagerness to finish fights through the high-level grappling offense he owns, and the reasonable odds for this fight to end inside the distance cannot be ignored.

Petroski vs. Turman: Odds Analysis and Prediction

The UFC odds at top-rated sportsbooks show value on the under 2 ½ rounds at -166. Whether the two grapplers exchange strikes or a ground battle ensues, I believe one of these fighters will wilt under pressure, most likely Turman.

UFC Pick: Under 2 ½ Rounds (-166) [1u returns 1.05u profit] at BetOnline

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UFC 281 Main Card and Odds

UFC 281 Preliminary Card and Odds

*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.