UFC 277 Prop Betting Picks: The Perfect Proposition

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Anthony Smith (L) of the United States speaks with Jim Crute of Australia after their fight at UFC 261. Alex Menendez/Getty Images/AFP.

The Ultimate Fighting Championship returns to the American Airlines Center for a highly stacked UFC pay-per-view event.

The UFC odds are now available for us to delve into some perfect prop betting picks for UFC 277 – headlined by two championship bouts involving Julianna Pena, Amanda Nunes, Brandon Moreno, and Kai Kara-France.

Anthony Smith vs. Magomed Ankalaev

UFC Light Heavyweight Main Card Bout

Saturday, July 30, 2022 – 10:00 PM EDT at American Airlines Center

Fighters Analysis

Anthony Smith

Anthony Smith (36-16-0) is often labeled as a ‘gatekeeper’ of the UFC’s light heavyweight division. However, he currently boasts a 3-fight win streak behind three submission stoppages.

It could be argued that Smith is one significant victory away from earning himself a second title opportunity after losing his first against Jon Jones in 2019, and he should never be underestimated.

Magomed Ankalaev

No. 4 ranked Magomed Ankalaev (17-1-0) has lived up to the hype since joining the UFC in 2018.

Following his debut loss to Paul Craig – a fight he was winning until a surprise submission caught him off-guard – Ankalaev has torn through the rankings and is now riding an 8-fight consecutive win streak with notable wins over the division's finest.


Smith vs. Ankalaev: Fight Breakdown

Two high-level strikers will face off in a contest that’s more difficult to predict than the betting odds suggest.

Outside of the stand-up war, should we assume that Ankalaev’s submission defense is suspect? Losing to Paul Craig via submission presents a viable path to victory for Smith, who boasts an impressive jiu-jitsu offense.

Smith has a great jab, but the lateral movement and defensive tendencies of Ankalaev are exceptional. Keeping Smith at range and playing the outside striking game is how Ankalaev walks out of UFC 277 as the victor.


Smith vs. Ankalaev: Betting Odds and Prediction

The available UFC odds at the top-rated sportsbooks expect Ankalaev to win this fight by a landslide, but as the odds climb deeper into -500 territory and beyond, a play on Smith becomes the tempting approach in this current betting market.

With that said, I believe Ankalaev should be the rightful favorite, and I expect a point-fighting approach as he’s taken in most of his professional bouts. Ankalaev doesn’t hunt for a finish, he’s an extremely patient fighter, and his stoppage victories are usually due to the mistakes and over-extension of his opponents.

Given the experience and confidence Smith is riding, in combination with Ankalaev’s most prominent path to victory, I predict this fight will play out through all three rounds.

UFC Pick: Fight Goes the Distance (-120) [1.20u returns 1u profit] at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Fight Goes the Distance (-120)
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Drew Dober vs. Rafael Alves

UFC Lightweight Preliminary Bout

Saturday, July 30, 2022 - 09:00 PM EDT at American Airlines Center

Fighters Analysis

Drew Dober

Drew Dober (24-11-0) has found most of his UFC success behind a well-skilled kickboxing output. Six years spent on the UFC roster, and the American-born power-puncher has ten wins, seven of which ended inside the distance.

The muay thai prowess of Dober is well assisted with a fight-ending level of power, as he’ll return to the octagon this weekend following an impressive round one stoppage over a top prospect in Terrance McKinney.

Rafael Alves

While Rafael Alves (22-10-0) doesn’t boast the elite-level UFC experience of his opponent this weekend, the Brazilian has notably competed as a professional for 15 years.

Alves is still untested with a 1-1 record since joining the promotion in 2021, but a round one guillotine choke over Marc Diakiese last time out gave him a stamp of approval.


Dober vs. Alves: Fight Breakdown

We’re going to witness a cliché striker versus grappler matchup, but the opposing qualities of each competitor do provide a common trend – fights ending inside the distance.

If Alves drags this contest to the ground, the likelihood of a submission finish raises significantly.

Likewise, if Dober keeps this fight standing, he possesses an unruly amount of punching power that could put the Brazilian’s lights out.

Dober vs. Alves: Fight Breakdown: Betting Odds and Prediction

The available UFC odds with Bookmakers Review favor Dober, but if you’re playing the moneyline, I’d be hesitant to blind-bet the favorite.

I don’t like my chances of predicting this fight outright. However, I believe we have a high probability of witnessing this fight end inside the distance.

UFC Pick: Under 2 ½ Rounds (-160) [1.60u returns 1u profit] at BetOnline

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Under 2 ½ Rounds (-160)
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UFC 277 Main Card

UFC 277 Preliminary Card

*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.