UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier Lock on the Card

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Alex Pereira celebrates after his TKO victory against Andreas Michailidis in their middleweight bout during the UFC 268. Mike Stobe/Getty Images/AFP

It is International Fight Week, which means it is international violence wagering week as well! Right away, I’m telling you, don’t bet on the Israel Adesanya and Jared Cannonier fight unless you have an Izzy voodoo doll or looking to pull an LT in the 80s.

If you’re looking at that fight, our friends at BetOnline have both the over and the under of this main event for the UFC middleweight title set at -115, so putting some coin on either (I prefer the over) may be your most sensible bet on Saturday night.

Below, we’ll go break down Sean Strickland vs. Alex Pereira’s middleweight fight to share a winning UFC pick!

Sean Strickland vs. Alex Pereira

UFC Middleweight Main Card Bout

Saturday, July 02, 2022 – 10:35 PM EDT at T-Mobile Arena

UFC 276 Main Event

With Izzy going the distance in his last four fights and Cannonier in his first real title opportunity in the UFC and going the distance against both Robert Whittaker and Kelvin Gastelum prior to his cracking one on Derek Brunson, you can really see the over as the best possible scenario for plus money on Saturday night’s main event.

But, we’re not here for could be, should be, or would be… we’re here for locks or their non-union equivalent, which is why we need to look deeper into the weeds for the latest Pay Per View offering from the Endeavor-owned purveyor of violence.

Strickland vs. Pereira Fight Breakdown

One fight you may be able to make some solid money without going too crazy on what you lay down in return for a win is the middleweight battle between Alex Pereira and Sean Strickland, as Pereira is a modest -120 favorite against the +100 Strickland available at BMR's best online books and betting sites.

While this is the ex-kickboxer’s third UFC fight in a six-fight career that has spanned seven years, Pereira has become a force in the middleweight division, especially drawing the ire of Adesanya, who claims he can cook the Brazilian if they were ever to meet inside the Octagon.

Alex Pereira Betting Odds Breakdown

Why is Pereira just a -120 favorite for this Saturday night in Vegas? Aside from the fact that he’s only had six fights dating back to the Obama Administration, his truest test came in a fight against Bruno Silva, where Pereira had to go the distance with Silva to win his fifth.

And when you’re facing off against a certified vet like Strickland, who walking into Saturday night has won the same amount of fights Pereira has had in a career in a row… You start looking across the Octagon and thinking “oooh. He can pop this dude one.”

Also in terms of quality opponents, the last six dudes Strickland faced are way more decorated than the opponents Pereira has had in his career, especially Jack Hermansson and Uriah Hall, the last two dudes to face and lose to Strickland.

While Hermansson was only a split decision win for Strickland, QOV (Quality of Victory, a stat I just made up), looks way better for the underdog than it does for Pereira.

Strickland vs. Pereira Betting Analysis

  • Alex Pereira is cooking Strickland with a decimating shot early and knocking the latter out for the first time in four years, the only time he’s been knocked out in his pro career.
  • Strickland is grinding Pereira and getting him into deep water for 15 minutes and not letting him breathe for a second until it is a 30-27scorecard with Strickland getting his seventh win. 
  • Pereira is finding holes in Strickland’s game, keeping distance and waiting until he can tag Strickland and get the win by decision.

I don’t see Strickland getting a stoppage, especially a submission since it’s been 11 years since Strickland stopped Bubba Jenkins with a submission, but I do feel that Pereira is walking into a shark tank.

Take the underdog if you want to, it’s solid money and you’ll get a very decent payday, but take the over 1 ½ at -165 and ensure yourself some extra cash to bring you into the weekend.

UFC Pick: Over 1 ½ (-165) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Over 1 ½ (-165)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.