UFC 272: Colby Covington vs. Jorge Masvidal Lock on the Card

profile image of Matt Ryan
063_1328077623-aspect-ratio-16-9
Tai Tuivasa of Australia lands a punch on Greg Hardy in the first round in their heavyweight bout during UFC 264. Stacy Revere/Getty Images/AFP

Whelp, here we are… Jorge Masvidal and Colby Covington are finally facing off at UFC 272 and while I find Colby Covington’s gimmick and entire personality to be trite and a 7th rate Superstar Billy Graham impression, he’s one hell of a fighter and if you’re a Jorge Masvidal backer, you better have a santeria alter with photos of Masvidal’s knee.

And are you asking if that is my lock of the week for UFC 272, the entire reason you are reading my words right now (unless the metadata gods brought you here is that we both like the band Fountains of Wayne, if so… hello). In the meantime, let’s break down some UFC odds.

Sergey Spivac vs. Greg Hardy

Heavyweight Bout

Saturday, March 05, 2022 – 10:15 PM EST at T-Mobile Arena

Betting Preview

For our lock of the week, we look at a shockingly solid undercard that now includes Renato Moicano's return to the Octagon less than a month after he served Alexander Hernandez with a submission win at UFC 271.

The Brazillian takes on Rafael dos Anjos on the main card in a fight that as of now, per BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review), has RDA as the favorite over Moicano, even though I believe the South American has a shot at the late-notice win on Saturday night.

Video Picks: Watch BMR's Free Expert Sports Betting Picks of the Day

The lock of the night in fact comes from the heavyweight division, as noted Ex-NFL athlete and a man who likes to keep guns on his bed, Greg Hardy, fights against Sergey Spivak on the main card of the pay-per-view.

Losing three of his last five fights inside the Octagon, Hardy continues to be a featured attraction of the ESPN+ era, despite his inability to beat opponents like Marcin Tybura, Alexander Volkov, and the newest golden child of the thick boy division, Tai Tuivasa. 

Join Now: $1,000 BMR 12-Week All Sports Challenge

Hardy in the midst of a two-fight losing streak faces Spivak, a fighter also looking for a redemption win after he got stopped by Tom Aspinall in September of 2021, ending a three-fight winning streak.

Betting Analysis

In terms of common opponents, Spivak has the better record (1-1), to Hardy’s 0-2 run against the aforementioned Tybura and Tuivasa (the latter being defeated by Spivak in 2019 by submission), that plus Spivak’s experience as a pro-fighter serves him well against Hardy, who has 12 fights to Spivak’s 16, is catching up in training and seasoning as a fighter

The biggest issues with Hardy are his cardio and spirit. While Hardy proclaims himself the “Prince Of War,” following his controversial UFC debut, which was made even more controversial due to his illegal knee of a downed opponent, Allen Crowder.

More Picks: UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal First Look | Betting Picks, Odds and Predictions

At the post-fight press conference, which I attended, Hardy took it out on the media and did not attempt to take ownership of the fact he screwed up and cost himself a win and got frustrated during the fight as it deep into round two and pulled an Andrew Golota and got DQ’ed. 

The wind issue is due to Hardy’s use of an inhaler, which is what cost him his UFC Boston win over Ben Sosoli, as he used it illegally between rounds and forced the commission to call it a No-Contest.

Lock on the Card

If you’re looking for a lock on this card, take Spivak -215 per BetOnline. If you want something risky for your UFC picks, take the under 1 ½ rounds which are set at +130.

UFC 272 Lock: Sergey Spivac to Win ML (-215) at BetOnline

BetOnline logo
Sergey Spivac to Win ML (-215)
Visit Site

Also watch me call the fights live this Saturday night for Combat Culture starting 15 minutes before the main card on our YouTube Channel, follow me on Twitter (@MRyanConsulting) for more info!

*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.