UFC 270: Francis Ngannou vs. Ciryl Gane Lock on the Card

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Brandon Moreno of Mexico throws a left on Deiveson Figueiredo of Brazil during their UFC 263 match. Christian Petersen/Getty Images via AFP

It is UFC time and ya boy is ready for the face-punching and the financial withholdings thereof! But seriously gang, the UFC returns to Pay Per View (at a higher cost cause bing bong, f*** ya wallet) this Saturday night as they present UFC 270. 

At the top of the card, we have the unification fight of all unification fights, as Ciryl Gane and Francis Ngannou battle to prove they are the true UFC Heavyweight Champion.

But that’s not the only title fight that is giving me strength on a Tuesday morning when I write this, as Deiveson Figueiredo and Brandon Moreno have their trilogy fight for the UFC Flyweight title as they look to put on their third straight banger in as many years.

So let’s break down the betting odds for this fight.

Brandon Moreno vs. Deiveson Figueiredo

UFC Flyweight Championship Bout Co-Main Event 

Saturday, January 22, 2022 –  10: 05 PM EST at Honda Center

Picking a lock in any of these fights is a fool’s errand. With Gane and Ngannou, you have two dudes who will shut the door on the very idea of your existence with one punch, and with Figueiredo and Moreno being the salvation of an entire division following Henry Cejudo dipping to troll people on Twitter or whatever the hell else he is doing. 

There is something to their first two fights that draw me in. Outside of the allure of a title fight, the trilogy fight has all the potential to be an all-time classic built off the two other meetings and for me, that is the true "Lock on the Card" on Saturday.

Now, that does NOT help you in terms of wagering on this card, but there is something to this fight that we can exploit. 

Betting Analysis

According to our friends at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review), the total is 4½ rounds with the over being a very fun +115. And if you’re asking “Matt, why the hell are you taking the over?” History… History is the answer.

When looking at Moreno’s last few fights, five of his last seven fights have gone the distance, including his first fight with Figueiredo in 2020 in an all-time classic.

Even though Moreno got the win in the third round of their 2021 rematch, one would think the former champion turned challenger will be ready for anything that the current champion has for him. 

MORE PICKS: UFC 270: Moreno vs. Figueiredo | First Look, Picks, Odds and Prediction

In the seven months between fights, one has to assume that Figueiredo has watched the tape of that third round more times than anyone else could stomach to ensure he does not get trapped again by Moreno nor get out volumed by him.

That was the case in fights one and two, despite Figueiredo being the more proficient striker in their first matchup. 

You can take those numbers with a grain of salt, but you also have to remember that the former champion has had his longest time to prepare since he first won the title in 2020, as the first fight with Moreno came less than a month after his first defense and then a less than six-month layoff between fights one and two.

Betting Pick

Will that extra month of rest and preparation be the key? I am (and hopefully you) hedging on that for my "Lock on the Card", so let's call it: Moreno and Figueiredo going over 4½ rounds on Saturday night for our UFC pick in this bout.

Think this fight ends early? Think I’m a nobody who never stepped into a cage so how dare I handicap fights? Let me know on Twitter @Mryanconsulting.

UFC 270 Pick: Total Rounds Over 4½ (+115) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Total Rounds Over 4½ (+115)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.