UFC 269: Charles Oliveira vs. Dustin Poirier Lock on the Card

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General view of the Octagon during a UFC Fight Night. Douglas P. DeFelice/Getty Images/AFP.

Another week, another UFC event and another chance for me to give you a lock on this card. So let’s break down some UFC Odds!

If you’re a UFC fan of any level, you’ll know that, for the UFC 269: Charles Oliveira vs. Dustin Poirier Card this Saturday, Amanda Nunes is our lock of the week against Julianna Peña.

Amanda Nunes vs. Julianna Peña

UFC Women’s Bantamweight Championship Bout

Saturday, December 11, 2021 – 10:00 PM EST at T-Mobile Arena

Nunes vs. Peña Odds

This is not a slight on Peña, who is a world-class fighter and championship-caliber. But have you seen Amanda Nunes? Rousey, Cyborg, hell I think she may in fact be our only line of defense in an actual Mortal Kombat tournament. Yet, this is an article about gambling, and this is not much of a gamble.

Sure, you’d win the bet and prove to your friends and Noreen that girl you’ve been wanting to impress on Hinge with your MMA skillz (has to be with a z), but to make $100 of this bet, you’d have to bet $900… you know why dear reader?

BECAUSE AMANDA NUNES IS A -900 FAVORITE ACCORDING TO THE TOP SPORTSBOOKS.

Yup. You read that right!

So, if you wanna throw nearly a grand in just to make back $100 and feel good about yourself? Bless ya and may you be happy throughout your life on this planet.

Nunes vs. Peña Prediction

Now, for the rest of us garbage humans who need to feel alive and take a risk… A lock on this card can be found, but we have to dig into the weeds my dear children, as this card is fraught with matchups that make my wallet uncomfortable like wearing wet jeans at a hockey game (reminder to read my weekly hockey column at BMR, it is effective). Sure you could take the over 1½ rounds in Nunes-Peña, which is set at a very liveable -135.

While Nunes has death in her fists and anger in her soul, Peña has yet to be knocked out in the UFC, hell the last time she got knocked out was in 2012, that’s nine years ago back when I had a slimmer waistline and hope in my eyes… but you don’t need to hear about that.

Nunes is also fighting for the first time since contracting COVID-19 earlier this year, which is what canceled the first fight between the two this past summer.

It allows you to wonder whether or not Nunes will be able to get into that “IMMA KILL YOU” gear early in the fight, especially when it’s five rounds and fought her last two fights at featherweight as opposed to bantamweight, which is the title the Brazilian is defending on Saturday night.

This draws your eye to Nunes' last fight at Bantamweight against Germaine De Randamie in 2019 and the fight following that against Felicia Spencer at featherweight. Both of those fights went to a decision. It’s feast or famine with Nunes since winning titles, either 1st round devastation or a fifth-round decision. 

UFC 269 Lock on the Card

With COVID, the drop-down back to bantamweight, and Nunes (with notable exceptions) going to the distance with fighters “closer” in skill level, I think you take the over 1½ rounds for your UFC pick and keep an eye on BetOnline’s (visit our BetOnline Review) "Fight Goes the Distance" prop which is set at +325 and could be a very tasty pickup for this weekend.

Wanna watch the fights with me? I’ll be live calling the action on the Combat Culture YouTube Channel! Let me know you’re a reader and I’ll shout you out! We get started 15 minutes before the main card at 09:45 EST!

UFC Pick: Over 1½ Rounds (-135) at BetOnline

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Over 1½ Rounds (-135)
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"Tasty" UFC Pick Suggestion: Fight Goes the Distance (+325) at BetOnline

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Fight Goes the Distance (+325)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.