Well, hello there my fellow bettors! If UFC 274 was brutal for the BMR gang, then we’ll have to come up with a new adjective to describe UFC Vegas 54.
O.k you caught me. I might be exaggerating a bit but that’s how serious we take our record around here…and not just for the banter! So let’s focus on UFC Vegas 55 and let’s improve that 2-4 record from last week.
This Saturday, the event is headlined by the Holly Holm vs. Ketlen Vieira bantamweight bout and three of the editors have taken a special interest in this fight but we’re also looking at the preliminary card, so let’s break down some UFC odds!
Omar Morales vs. Uros Medic
UFC Lightweight Preliminary Card Bout
Saturday, May 21, 2022 – 05:25 PM EDT at UFC Apex
Morales vs. Medic Betting Preview
As always we start off with the preliminary bouts and boy, do we have an interesting matchup in the lightweight division, as the Venezuelan fighter, Omar Morales, is facing off against his counterpart from the US, Uros Medic.
I took notice of Morales during his fight against Giga “Ninja” Chikadze back in October 2020. Despite losing, Morales put up a pretty good fight and showed why he is among the UFC elite, as my colleague David mentioned this week in one of his columns.
It’s easy to understand why the public is backing Medic as he is younger and is known as a striker. On top of that, the 36-year-old Venezuelan made his UFC debut in 2019 and did lose his last fight against Jonathan Pearce, despite having a significant advantage over him.
How to Bet Morales vs. Medic?
The best way to bet this fight is to play it safe and take Morales to win, as we are getting a favorable price from the oddsmakers. I'm taking into account the fact that Morales can be very quick and powerful when he pressures his opponents and with this fight taking place in the lightweight division, I do expect a more explosive version of him.
Also, Medic is known for running out of gas early in his bouts when he’s not able to finish them with a knockout (don’t count on a submission) in the first round. I can see Morales surviving Round 1 and taking control of the fight therefore probably winning by decision.
Jailton Almeida vs. Parker Porter
UFC Heavyweight Preliminary Card Bout
Saturday, May 21, 2022 - 05:50 PM EDT at UFC Apex
Almeida vs. Porter Betting Preview
We stay in the “prelims” but we move from light to heavy, as Dave is taking an interest in the Almeida vs. Porter heavyweight bout, which serves as a great transition into the main card of the event.
I’m glad that he went with this fight as it features one of the most intriguing prospects in the UFC. Despite only having one UFC fight so far, Jailton Almeida is commanding a lot of attention and respect. Almeida is the new contender in the light heavyweight division, but this weekend he’ll fight in the 205 lb class, where he feels as comfortable.
What is Jailton Almeida Trying to Accomplish?
“Jailton Almeida (15-2-0) is looking to become the UFC poster boy for Brazilian fighters at light heavyweight, and he certainly owns the attributes to achieve this goal.
“Almeida made his UFC debut earlier this year and dismantled Danilo Marques inside of three minutes. He possesses some of the most potent BJJ skills in the heavier weight classes, and his punching power isn’t too far behind.
"Almeida is one of the rare BJJ black belts who possesses the wrestling offense to put his opponents in submissive positions with ease. Porter could give Almeida a run for his money early on, but Almeida's agility, speed, and sheer talents will eventually end this fight via submission.” Dave Manyun
UFC Pick: Jailton Almeida to Win ITD (-265) [2.65u returns 1u profit] at BetOnline
Holly Holm vs. Ketlen Vieira
UFC Women’s Bantamweight Main Event Bout
Saturday, May 21, 2022 – 10:00 PM EDT at the UFC Apex
Everyone is pumped up for the main event of the night as we get to see Holly Holm after almost two years since she last stepped into the octagon. We have three of our editors going for this fight so let’s hear them! And yes, Ed and Le went with the same pick so think of that as some sort of super booster.
When Was the Last Time Vieira Won Inside the Distance?
“The last time Vieira won a fight inside the distance was on September 9, 2017, when she submitted Sara McMann in the second round at UFC 215. Look for a technical battle on Saturday, which will lead to a judge’s decision.
“Neither fighter has been a dangerous finisher in recent years; four of Holm’s last five fights have gone the distance. She hasn’t stopped anyone since her KO win in the third round against Bethe Correia at UFC Fight Night 111 on June 17, 2017, and four of Vieira’s last five fights have gone the distance as well." Ed Solano
Ed's UFC Vegas 55 Pick: Holly Holm by Points (-125) at BetOnline [1.25u returns 1u profit] at BetOnline
What Are the Odds For Holm?
"Currently, Holm is juiced at -250 at your top-rated sportsbooks. This will be a wonderful bout for Holly Holm, and the bookmakers agree that this is her fight to lose.
"Vieira's path to victory will simply be on the ground as I do not see her out striking a boxing champion like Holm. Vieira should be successful in some of her takedown attempts, however, she will not be able to do much damage.
"Both women also have a common opponent in Irene Aldana. Vieira was outstruck by Aldana and lost by KO in the first round. Meanwhile, Holm stayed sharp and defeated Aldana via unanimous decision. Vieira has never fought against a fighter with a pace like Holm, so, the deeper into the rounds this fight goes, the more Holm will take over with her striking.
"Holm has had plenty of experience fighting in the championship rounds. Yes, they were losses, but against some of the toughest women in the division:
- Valentina Shevchenko (2016)
- Germaine de Randamie (2017)
- Cris Cyborg (2017)
- Amanda Nunes (2019)
"Both women have shown it will take a lot to finish them, so I expect a decision to take place with Holly Holm outstriking Vieira. And since Holm has juiced odds, I will grab the MMA Prop for Holm to win by points" Le Martin
Le's UFC Vegas 55 Pick: Holly Holm by Points (-125) [1.25u returns 1u profit] at BetOnline
Lock On This Card
"Walking into the main event on Saturday night at the UFC Apex, Holm is the favorite, and Viera is the underdog, which could be former champion bias or name bias, but it certainly is not recency bias, as Holm has not fought since late 2020 and Viera fought in late 2021.
"The lock on this card is that we will see the fifth round, which is not a sext pick, we get that. But with the last five fights combined between both fighters going to the scorecard, it just makes sense to the over 4 ½ rounds." Matt Ryan
Matt's UFC Vegas 55 Pick: Over 4 ½ Rounds (-220) [2.2u returns 1u profit] at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.