Well, hello there my fellow bettors! This week the action is heading back to the Apex Center with UFC Vegas 57 and boy, it should be a good one. This main card is headlined by the lightweight bout between Arman Tsarukyan and Mateusz Gamrot.
After a great evening of fights, including a couple of upsets last week in Austin, the BMR gang is ready for another great Saturday of entertainment… and hopefully profit as well. As for me, I’m just trying to break my losing streak. It’s gone on for so long that I lost count!
Without further ado, let’s break down some UFC odds and share some betting picks for this weekend!
Carlos Ulberg vs. Tafon Nchukwi
UFC Light Heavyweight Main Card Bout
Saturday, June 25, 2022 – 09:15 PM EDT UFC Apex
Tafon Nchukwi Fighter Profile
"Tafon Nchukwi earned a contract with the UFC after a vicious head kick in the second round against Al Matavao at Dana White’s Contender Series on September 8, 2020.
"Nchukwi then cruised to a unanimous decision win against Jamie Pickett in his debut with the promotion at UFC Fight Night 183 on December 19, 2020, but he is just 1-2 in his last three fights.
"The 27-year-old from Cameroon is a good wrestler, he has four takedowns in his five fights in the UFC and he can exploit this against Carlos Ulberg, who will have his fourth fight in the promotion. Ulberg made his UFC debut on March 6, 2021, when he was knocked out in the second round against Kennedy Nzechukwu at UFC 259.
Ulberg vs. Nchukwi Betting Pick
"The former Dana White’s Contender Series participant took almost a year off after that loss but he got back on track by beating Fabio Cherant via unanimous decision at UFC 271 on February 12.
"Nobody has tested Ulberg’s takedown defense so far. Only Kennedy Nzechukwu attempted a takedown against him in the UFC and Ulberg successfully defended it. Nonetheless, Nchukwi has a significant wrestling advantage and I anticipate him to successfully get some takedowns, leading to more control time for him and the win." Ed Solano
Chris Curtis vs. Rodolfo Vieira
UFC Middleweight Main Card Bout
Saturday, June 25, 2022 – 10:10 PM EDT at UFC Apex
Curtis vs. Viera: Betting Analysis
"As a natural southpaw, Curtis already possesses an advantage over the majority of orthodox opponents. When we evaluate his technical striking ability, there aren't many fighters in the UFC who would find success in outboxing him.
"Rodolfo Viera (8-1-0) entered the UFC as one of the most feared Brazilian jiu-jitsu specialists on the planet, and he sure lived up to the hype. However, when Anthony Hernandez submitted Viera, the glaring holes in his MMA game were exposed.
Curtis vs. Viera: Betting Pick
"The oddsmakers opened with Curtis as a -180 favorite, and I believe their judgment was almost perfect. However, the line is now sitting at -125, and I love this value as the public continues doubting Curtis's ability to win this bout.
"Viera isn't the type of grappler that will hold his opponents in position, so I believe the majority of this fight will take place on the feet. This is Curtis's fight to lose versus a fighter in Viera who'll stand no chance exchanging shots with the Ohio native." Dave Manyun
Nate Maness vs. Umar Nurmagomedov
UFC Bantamweight Main Card Bout
Saturday, June 25, 2022 – 10:35 PM EDT UFC Apex
Maness vs. Nurmagomedov Betting Preview
There are some great fights on the main card of UFC Vegas 57 and the Maness vs. Nurmagomedov is the one I'm looking forward to the most. And no, I'm not talking about Khabibm but rather his cousin Umar, who's undefeated in his career (14-0) and is looking for his third UFC win in a row.
Despite Umar's impressive numbers and lopsided odds, his rival Nate Maness is not exactly an opponent you would consider "a stroll in the park". The American fighter also has 14 victories to his name and just one defeat (prior to joining the UFC). If he pulls the biggest upset of the night, he'll also earn his fourth win in a row.
Both fighters have exploded onto the UFC scene in the last two years. Having said that, "Cousin Umar" should have a better fight rhythm as he last stepped into the octagon less than four months ago, when he beat Brian Kelleher in the first round with a rear-naked choke. Meanwhile, Maness hasn't fought in almost a year.
Maness vs. Nurmagomedov Betting
Although Maness is two inches taller and has an advantage in his reach (both arms and legs), the Russian prospect lands more significant strikes and has a better defense percentage.
Not that it matters much as his true strength is in his grappling. Nurmagedov averages an impressive 7.56 takedowns per minute, against a 1.52 average for Maness. Also, keep in mind that Maness hasn't really been tested in a couple of his UFC fights.
Nurmagomedov has the pedigree and the stamina and I think he would show why he is a serious contender in the bantamweight division. Now, am I going to tell you to bet his -1200 moneyline? Hell no! That's why we are going with him in the three-way line at a more affordable price.
Ricky's UFC Vegas 57 Pick: Umar Nurmagomedov to Win Inside the Distance (-170) [1.70u returns 1u] at BetOnline
Neil Magny vs. Shavkat Rakhmonov
UFC Welterweight Main Card Bout
Saturday, June 25, 2022 – 11:50 PM EDT at UFC Apex
Magny vs. Rakhmonov Betting Analysis
"Who doesn’t love Neil Magny if you’re a diehard MMA head? He’s won three of his last four fights within the Octagon, but walks into this fight a +300 underdog against Shavkat Rakhmonov who is at -400 at BMR’s top-rated books and betting sites and I get it.
"Rakhmonov is undefeated and has never seen a scorecard in his professional career. If I were in the UFC marketing department, I’d build a social campaign around this blur of TKOs and submissions coming on to take a certified name with MMA fans and try to cultivate some undercard interest in this show.
Magny vs. Rakhmonov Betting Pick
"It would help as Magny’s last six fights went to a decision (winning all but one against Michael Chiesa), with all but his win over Max Griffin in March of this year being unanimous decisions for or against Magny.
"If you’re looking at the lock on the card, I would take the over for this fight, and may you be blessed with a solid gold boat!" Matt Ryan
Matt's UFC Vegas 57 Pick: Over 2 ½ Rounds (+110) [1u returns 1.1u] at BetOnline
Arman Tsarukyan vs. Mateusz Gamrot
UFC Lightweight Main Event Bout
Saturday, June 25, 2022 – 11:59PM EDT at UFC Apex
Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot Betting Preview
"The current odds hold Arman Tsarukyan as the heavy juiced -280 favorite and Mateusz Gamrot as the +240 underdog. This is going to be the main event you do not want to miss. Not only are both of these contenders similar in their fight style, but they are durable finishers.
"For me, I am siding with Tsarukyan to win this by points. Ever since his loss to Islam Makhachev, Tsarukyan has been hot. He is 5-0 in his last five bouts with three victories by unanimous decision and two victories by T/KO.
"Gamrot is the former KSW featherweight and lightweight champion, so he has those championship rounds experience. He is 4-1 in his last five bouts with three victories inside the distance and won by unanimous decision. His loss was by split decision.
Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot Betting Pick
"I still give Tsarukyan the overall edge. His fight IQ is sharp and he should be able to gauge his range and striking while also mixing in his superb wrestling skills. Gamrot will aim to bring this fight to the ground, but he will be as successful as in his previous matches.
"For my UFC pick, I think Tsarukyan will hold the pace and will win this one at the scorecards." Le Martin
Le's UFC Vegas 57 Pick: Arman Tsarukyan by Points (+170) [1u returns 1.7u] at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.