Today marks the last day of the round-robin portion of the WTA finals for Group B.
Maria Sakkari is in first place and Aryna Sabalenka is in second. Ons Jabeur still has a chance if she can get a win, but Jessica Pegula is virtually eliminated. These players all take the court today but only 2 can make the semifinals of the WTA Finals event in Fort Worth, Texas.
Let’s take a look at these matches to find winning tennis picks.
Jessica Pegula vs. Aryna Sabalenka
Friday, November 4, 2022 – 06:30 PM EDT at Dickies Arena
Jessica Pegula has had 2 hard-fought matches but, unfortunately, she has come up short. She lost in 2 tiebreaks and her first match against Maria Sakkari and fell in a three-set battle to Ons Jabeur in her second match. Still, I would not be surprised to see her get a good effort today even though she can most likely not advance.
Aryna Sabalenka has not looked 100% physically going to this tournament, but she's still put forth a good effort. In her first match, she overcame a deficit to get a hard-fought, three-set win over Ons Jabeur. She fell in her second match to Maria Sakkari where her movement did appear to be a bit hampered. Yet Sabalenka is a fighter and she will take every opportunity she can to put forth her best effort.
- Aryna Sabalenka has the more impressive serve in terms of pace and ace potential, but Jessica Pegula holds at a higher rate. Pegula has a more consistent second serve and also takes advantage of weak returns with more consistency.
- Sabalenka hits with more power from her groundstrokes. This will be one of the rare times for Pegula in which she is overpowered in all aspects of the game. Pegula is used to being the aggressor in the match but she will have to call upon some of her defensive skills against Sabalenka's ability to hit with pace.
- Pegula can be a tad bit more consistent, but both players want to play aggressively and end points quickly.
- Pegula has the greater defensive ability and slightly better court coverage, yet Sabalenka hits with so much power, this edge will be negligible.
- Sabalenka has the experience edge. Pegula is still getting used to being at the top of the tour.
- Pegula will have the support of the American crowd.
I'm worried about Sabalenka's physical condition coming into this match. She didn't look 100% healthy against Sakkari and if she's not 100%, Pegula will take advantage. Pegula is never a player to back down and even though the tournament hasn't gone well for her so far I think she will get her first win today.
If Sabalenka was 100% it would be hard to pick against her, but due to the fact that she's laboring on a leg that is limiting her movement, it gives Pegula an excellent opportunity to leave the tournament with a win. Following the WTA odds, our first bet for today's WTA Finals event is Jessica Pegula ML.
Ons Jabeur vs. Maria Sakkari
Friday, November 4, 2022 - 08:00 PM EDT at Dickies Arena
Although Maria Sakkari has won her first 2 matches, if she were to lose by a margin and Sabalenka were to win she could still be eliminated; so she still needs his match in order to make sure she advances. Although by the time they play, if Sabalenka loses, Sakkari will know her spot is secure.
I would think that both women will try their hardest but it's an interesting situation that we don't have much experience handicapping if Maria knows that she has qualified will affect Sakkari's effort.
Ons Jabeur got off to a hot start against Sabalenka but fell in 3 sets. She followed that up with a three-set win over Jessica Pegula. Jabeur has been in 2 hard-fought matches so far in this tournament. I expect today could be the same.
- Ons Jabeur has a better serve. Maria Sakkari has improved her serve lately but is not on the level of Jabeur yet. Ons Jabeur holds at a higher percentage.
- Ons Jabeur has more variety with her groundstrokes. Sakkari prefers to use depth with power and pace, while Jabeur mixes her pace, mixes her court depth, and also the type of spin that her opponent has to play.
- Maria Sakkari is quicker and has greater court coverage. Sakkari’s ability to play defense gives her an edge here.
- Both women have had problems in big matches. This tournament represents an excellent opportunity for each woman to break through and shed some of the demons that they have had performing on the big stage.
- Both players are extremely popular with WTA fans and the crowd support should be mixed today.
Even though she could come and do this match without needing the match to win, I still think this will be a close hard-fought affair, like Ons Jabeur's first 2 matches. Both Sakkari and Jabeur are known for their competitive spirit and I don't expect Sakkari to give in, even if her spot in the semifinals is secure.
Also, if she needs this match, it is very likely that this match will go into 3 sets. I expect the third three-set battle for Ons Jabeur here and we should see another long, drawn-out affair. According to the best sportsbooks, our second bet for today's WTA finals event is Ons Jabeur/ Maria Sakkari Over 21.5 games.
Tennis Pick: Ons Jabeur/ Maria Sakkari Over 21.5 Games (-108) at Bookmaker
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.