The round-robin portion of the WTA finals concludes today. Iga Swiatek has qualified while Caroline Garcia and Daria Kasatkina vie for the last spot today.
Coco Gauff has been eliminated, but she still has a chance to end her season with a win. Let’s take a look at today’s featured match to find another winning tennis pick.
Caroline Garcia vs. Daria Kasatkina
Saturday, November 5, 2022 – 04:30 PM EDT at Dickies Arena
How Have the Players Been Doing?
Carolina Garcia opened her tournament here at the WTA Finals by defeating Coco Gauff in straight sets. Garcia got the routine 6-4, 6-3 win over the young American to start her tournament. In the second round, she was dispatched handily by Iga Swiatek. After an opening break, she never recovered and fell to Swiatek 6-3, 6-2.
This is Garcia's second trip to the WTA Finals; her first was in 2017. Garcia came into the tournament struggling to find her form, losing five of her last seven matches. However, that came off a streak where she was one of the hottest players on the WTA tour. Since the start of June, she has had 33 main draw wins, which is the most in the WTA.
Garcia is a versatile player and is the only player to have titles on all surfaces this year when she won Bad Homburg, Warsaw, and Cincinnati.
Daria Kasatkina opened her tournament with a loss to Iga Swiatek. She fell 6-2, 6-3 to Swiatek. She followed that up with a win over Coco Gauff. She was able to prevail 7-6, 6-3. Because of their identical wins and losses, this match is essentially a quarterfinal match. The winner will advance to the semifinal; the loser will be eliminated from the tournament.
Daria Kasatkina has won 25 hard-court matches this year. It is the highest amount of hard-court matches she has won in a single season. If Kasatkina were to advance today, it would be her seventh semifinal this season. Right now, Daria Kasatkina has a strong run going. She has not lost a match when she has a set advantage since 2021, a 32-match streak.
Both players who played the same amount of tennis so far so there's no edge in fatigue. They are also both fairly popular, and it's hard to tell who will have the edge in crowd support today.
Caroline Garcia has a much better serve. At one point Garcia was leading the WTA in hold percentage and she finished the year with the third-highest hold percentage. Garcia's ability to use her serve to give her an advantage has been the difference in her resurgence to the top of the WTA tour.
Garcia also has the experience edge. She was at the top of the tour 5 years ago, fell and struggled, and has reworked her way back to the top of the tour. Garcia's journey gives her an edge when playing in big matches.
Garcia has the more powerful groundstrokes. Kasatkina prefers to use a heavy topspin to pin her opponents back deep behind the baseline. Garcia can hit flatter through the ball, create more pace, and hit more winners.
Daria Kasatkina has a defensive advantage. Kasatkina is incredibly quick and plays tactically smart against aggressive players.
The slower courts should favor Kasatkina. It will neutralize the advantage that Garcia will hold on serve and accentuate Kasatkina's defensive abilities.
The Betting Pick
In a match that is pretty close to even, it is hard not to take the plus money with Daria Kasatkina. Kasatkina comes in the tournament playing better tennis, and even though they've had similar results so far, she probably carries a little better form and confidence coming into this tournament. Her game is also helped the most by the surface here in Fort Worth, Texas. The slow surface helps the defensive player like Kasatkina extend points, and makes it harder to hit winners against this tenacious, defensive genius.
After a tumultuous year for the Russian player with all the geopolitical infusion into the tennis world, Kasatkina has done a good job to persevere and still put forth her best effort as a tennis player. As a fan, it has been fun to watch the growth of the young Russian who has risen to the occasion rather than crumble under pressure.
Kasatkina has been outspoken in her objection to the war, even if it is caused her problems in her home country. This type of bravery pales to what is expected of a player on the tennis court, but it shows that she has the character and resolve to fight, traits which are of the utmost importance to a tennis player.
This match is close, which is why the WTA odds are so close. However, we do have an edge with the defensive player, in better form, who has continued to exceed expectations all year. Our bet for today's WTA final match is Daria Kasatkina ML.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.