WTA 2022 Finals Betting Preview: Why Iga Swiatek Is Still the World’s Best

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Iga Swiatek of Poland celebrates after defeating Donna Vekic of Croatia in the women's singles final during Day 7 of the San Diego Open. Michael Owens/Getty Images/AFP.

Day two of the WTA finals will be exciting with two premier matchups. In the first match on the schedule, world #1 Iga Swiatek takes the court to face Daria Kasatkina.

Let’s take a look at this exciting match to find another winning tennis pick.

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Iga Swiatek vs. Daria Kasatkina

Tuesday, November 1, 2022 – 06:00 PM EDT at Dickies Arena

Iga Swiatek

This will be Iga Swiatek's second time in the WTA Finals. Last year she made her first appearance and lost in the round-robin stage, falling to Maria Sakkari and Aryna Sabalenka, but defeating Paula Badosa.

Iga Swiatek has currently won 11 straight matches in the United States. She won the US Open and then lifted the trophy in San Diego. In fact, her only loss in the United States this year was falling to Madison Keys in Cincinnati.

Iga Swiatek has had an excellent season. She is the current world number one. She played in 16 tournaments and won 8 of them. She has won a WTA high 64 matches this season. She has 44 wins on hard courts, and is 16-4 and three set matches.

The courts in Fort Worth are playing slowly, but that should be good for Iga Swiatek. However, they bounce low as well which is something that Swiatek did not handle well at Wimbledon. The courts and the high level of competition will give a stern challenge to the world number one.

Daria Kasatkina

Daria Kasatkina is making her WTA finals debut at 25 years of age. Kasatkina had an excellent start to the year but ended with a dud. She lost in the first round of the US Open to Harriet Dart. She also lost in the third round of the WTA 1000 Guadalajara event to Anna Kalinskaya.

She comes into the match in lesser form than her opponent today. Kasatkina’s last tournament in which she played well was in Granby, Canada, where she won the title the week before the US Open.

Kasatkina is an ultra-quick defensive player who uses topspin to create a high bounce that pins her opponent deep behind the baseline. Her quickness will play well on the low bouncing courts, but her topspin could be ineffective.

She faces a tough test today against a player who defeated her on hard courts three times this season.

International and Personal Issues

Kasatkina has had a rough season. As a Russian player, she was not allowed to participate in events in England. She was one of the few players to speak out against the war in Ukraine, which earned her the ire and scorn of her country, and threatened her ability to live and own property in her home country.

She also came out as gay, which while widely accepted in the west, is still taboo in Russia, and caused her more problems at home. It has been a tumultuous year, but no one can say that Kasatkina is not brave in the face of adversity.

Iga Swiatek defeated Daria Kasatkina at the Australian Open, in Doha, and in Dubai. In each of these matches, Swiatek was dominant. Kasatkina won 5, 3, and 3 games total in the three matches. Kasatkina has struggled against Swiatek and would like to turn things around today.

Players Matchup

  • Iga Swiatek has a much stronger serve. Swiatek is more aggressive with her serve and can hit it much higher pace. Kasatkina struggles with her second serve, and high-level WTA opponents take advantage of the weak offering she provides on a second serve.
  • Kasatkina is usually the quicker, better defensive player on the court but against Swiatek this is very close. One of her significant advantages is neutralized playing against another quick, defensive master
  • Swiatek has more experience to be in big matches. Swiatek has risen to the top of the WTA and is the clear-cut number-one player in the world.
  • Swiatek comes into the match in good form while Kasatkina has been struggling lately.

Best Bet

Because of the results against each other this year, Iga Swiatek is heavily favored by the top-rated sportsbooks, and rightfully so. Kasatkina is a fighter and a fun player to root for, but this is an absolutely terrible matchup for Kasatkina.

It will be tough for Kasatkina to go against a player like Swiatek, who can match her defensive brilliance, but is a much better offensive player.

Because Swiatek will not allow Kasatkina to sit in long rallies to coax errors, it becomes a very tough match for her. Swiatek breaks her opponents at over 50% on the WTA level and she can feast on a weak second serve such as the one used by Kasatkina.

Even though this number seems outlandish, this should be a quick match. Following the WTA odds, our bet for today is Iga Swiatek -5.5 games.

Tennis Pick: Iga Swiatek -5.5 Games (-125) at Bookmaker

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Iga Swiatek -5.5 Games (-125)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.