Wimbledon 2022 Free Picks and Odds Breakdown

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Serbia's Novak Djokovic returns the ball to Canada's Felix Auger-Aliassime during the Giorgio Armani Tennis Classic tournament. (Photo by Adrian DENNIS / AFP)

The tennis world was rocked when Rafael Nadal withdrew from his semifinal match against Nick Kyrgios.

Now on semifinal Friday, we will only have one match. Novak Djokovic and Cameron Norrie will vie for the opportunity to face Nick Kyrgios in the final of Wimbledon.

When these two excellent players match up, what is the winning tennis pick?

Cameron Norrie vs. Novak Djokovic

Friday, July 08, 2022 – 08:30 AM EDT at Center Court

One of the greatest players of all time takes on a first-time Grand Slam semifinalist. Novak Djokovic is heavily favored. Let's take a look and see if the best sportsbooks got it right.

Players Profile

Novak Djokovic

  • Novak Djokovic is a 35-year-old Serbian player ranked 3rd in the world.
  • Djokovic is playing with poise and has the opportunity to win another Grand Slam.
  • Djokovic has a strong chance to be the winningest player of all time in terms of Grand Slam titles.
  • Djokovic is 6-0 on grass so far this season.
  • Djokovic is coming off a 5 set battle against Jannik Sinner. He lost the first 2 sets but battled back for a 5 set win.
  • Djokovic is one of the best returners of serve in the history of the game.

Cameron Norrie

  • Cameron Norrie is a 26-year-old British player ranked 12th in the world.
  • Norrie is the #1 ranked British player.
  • Norrie is 6 ft. 2 and plays left-handed with a two-handed backhand.
  • Norrie has won four ATP titles in his career.
  • By making the semifinals, this is Norrie's best result at a Grand Slam.
  • Norrie has an excellent serve and is holding at an 80.0% rate this season.
  • Norrie is breaking at a 24.9% rate this season.
  • Norrie has had uninspiring results on grass, yet Norrie has improved this season. He is now 17-14.
  • Norrie has an 82.3% hold rate on grass but only has a 17.1% break rate.

Norrie vs. Djokovic: Matchup Analysis

Serve

Novak Djokovic will have an easier time holding serve. Cameron Norrie has an excellent serve but Djokovic's return is so solid that Novak will have the advantage.

Djokovic also has an excellent serve and will be able to take advantage of Norrie's average level return of serve.

Forehand and Backhand

Cameron Norrie likes to use his left-handed forehand to pick on his opponent's backhand, but against Djokovic he will find no advantage there. Novak's backhand is rock solid in consistency and powerful enough to avoid ceding court position.

Rallies

Novak will have the advantage of working his forehand to Norrie's backhand in crosscourt rallies. Novak will have a huge advantage in baseline rallies.

Strategies and Tactics

Cameron Norrie will need to play his most aggressive strategies and tactics so far in this tournament. He cannot expect to grind out a great player such as Novak Djokovic.

He will need to play to win, to take chances, play in the smaller margins, and hope for an elite performance to defeat the all-time great.

Crowd Support

Cameron Norrie will have the advantage of the British crowd. The Royal Box showed up to his last match which gave the crowd even more energy.

I would expect more royal support again, which seems to lift the crowd into a frenzy.

Norrie vs. Djokovic: Betting Pick and Prediction

Novak Djokovic will get the win here. However, at a moneyline of -1667, there is absolutely no value in attacking that match price. I think there is a slight value in the +7.5 for Cameron Norrie on the game spread. This opened at +8 and was set down to +7.5, where it stabilized.

However, the Over is much safer. Novak could get multiple breaks in one set and blow this game spread out the water. Even if Norrie were to win a set, a double break set win for Djokovic that ended in 6-2 or 6-1 would be disastrous for Norrie's game spread.

  • Novak Djokovic has the advantage in every conceivable way going into this matchup.
  • Djokovic has won 37 straight matches on Center Court.
  • Cameron Norrie will not be able to play to his opponent’s backhand for an advantage.
  • Norrie will not be able to achieve easy service holds.
  • Norrie will be at a disadvantage in extended rallies.

Other than playing completely out of his mind, it is hard for me to come up with a strategy where Cameron Norrie could defeat Novak Djokovic. Our bet for the Wimbledon semifinal event is Over 30.5 games.

ATP Pick: Over 30.5 Games (-115) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

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Over 30.5 Games (-115)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.