US Open 2022 Final Prediction and Betting Pick: Carlos Alcaraz vs. Casper Ruud

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Spain's Carlos Alcaraz serves to USA's Frances Tiafoe during their 2022 US Open Tennis tournament semi-final match. Corey Sipkin/AFP

The US Open will crown a new Grand Slam champion today. Casper Ruud and Carlos Alcaraz take the court both looking for their first Grand Slam title.

When these two elite players face off, who will lift the trophy and be the winning tennis pick

Carlos Alcaraz vs. Casper Ruud

Sunday, September 11, 2022 – 04:00 PM EDT at Arthur Ashe Stadium

Two players with brilliant groundstrokes will meet with everything on the line. Let's take a look at these two fantastic players and see how they match up. 

Casper Ruud Player Profile and Analysis  

  • Casper Ruud is a 23-year-old Norwegian player ranked number 7 in the world.
  • Ruud plays right handed with a two-handed backhand. 
  • Ruud has won 9 titles in his career but all of them are at the ATP 250 level
  • Ruud is the fourth youngest player in ATP history to reach multiple slam finals in a season. He is the 7th active player to achieve this feat. 
  • Ruud was a finalist at this year's French Open, making him a two-time Grand Slam finalist in the 2022 season. 

Casper Ruud is excellent from the baseline. However, his forehand is much stronger than his backhand, which is currently his biggest weakness as a player. Ruud is coming off a four-set win over Karen Khachanov in the semifinals where he was able to prevail 7-6, 6-2, 5-7, 6-2. 

Ruud is 50-10 on the year. His hold percentage is 86% and his break percentage is 22.6%. The Norwegian has been labeled a clay courter but has dispelled that notion with hard-court success this season. 

Carlos Alcaraz Player Profile and Analysis 

  • Carlos Alcaraz is a 19-year-old Spanish player who's ranked #4 in the world.  
  • Alcaraz plays right-handed with a two-handed backhand. 
  • Alcaraz is 50-10 on the year and has won 4 ATP titles in 2022, including two Masters 1000 tournaments. His hold percentage is 85.1% and his break percentage is 30.2%
  • Alcaraz has excellent use of topspin, allowing him to pin his opponents deep behind the baseline.

Carlos Alcaraz is an elite defensive player but switches to offense fluidly as soon as his opponent makes a mistake. The Spaniard already has the point construction acumen of a 10-year veteran on the ATP tour. He mixes in screaming forehands with deft drop shots with the touch of an artist

Alcaraz already has a formidable serve. When he combines that with his brilliance from the baseline, he has an advantage in any extended rally. 

Player Matchup 

  • Carlos Alcaraz spent much more time on court during this tournament. He is coming off three consecutive five-set battles en route to the final. 
  • Both players serve fairly well with their baseline-oriented game. Neither man has a particularly big edge on serve
  • Both men have excellent forehands. Ruud will try to keep the battle on this side of the court. 
  • Alcaraz has an 8% better break percentage
  • Alcaraz will have the support of the crowd here in New York. 

Carlos Alcaraz is 2-0 against Ruud in official matches. In March, he won the prestigious Miami Masters 1000 event over Ruud in the final 7-5, 6-4. Ruud will need to serve better than his 59% serve percentage in that match in order to find a different result. Alcaraz has a much better backhand.

In their previous meetings, Alcaraz has looked to exploit this strength over Ruud, however, the Norweigian has already played a Grand Slam final this season. He faced Rafael Nadal in the final of the French Open, so he has the slight experience edge. 

US Open 2022 Final Betting Analysis

If it were not for the fatigue factor, Carlos Alcaraz would be a much bigger favorite than the current ATP odds seem to indicate. So it is up to us to decide whether or not the adjustment in the moneyline and game spread is worth the actual fatigue.  

Much will be made of the fact that Alcaraz is only 19 years old. I pointed out in my earlier column and my write-up of Alcaraz over Frances Tiafoe that 19-year-olds have a faster recovery. This is true but augmented by the fact that Alcaraz keeps himself in elite personal shape and spent the off-season committed to his fitness and endurance training.  

Alcaraz packed on muscle and maintained his cardiovascular strength to make himself a player who can endure for long stretches of time. 

US Open 2022 Final Pick and Prediction

I believe the downgrade, (which is something that tennis handicappers effectively use) is overrated here. Fatigue can make a player look much worse. This will be overrated in this instance with a young player who has dedicated himself to elite-level endurance training. If we take away that downgrade and focus on the tennis, Alcaraz has the huge edge

From watching their match in the Miami Open, Alcaraz was keen to target Casper Ruud's backhand, and rightfully so. Alcaraz has a huge advantage against a fellow baseliner in extended rallies. That was the difference in Miami and will be the difference again here today. My prediction is a 7-6, 6-3, 6-7, 6-4 victory. 

Casper Ruud is a great player and I think that we will see him continue to ascend to the top of the tour, especially if he uses the offseason to really hone in on that backhand. It has gotten better as the season progressed, but he still needs more work, while Alcaraz is already the finished product.

The young prodigy will finally be crowned Grand Slam champion. Our best bet for today for the US Open Men’s Final is Carlos Alcaraz -3.5 games. 

ATP Pick: Carlos Alcaraz -3.5 Games (-114) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review

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Carlos Alcaraz -3.5 Games (-114)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.