Libema Open 2022 Picks and Odds Breakdown

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Belarus' Aryna Sabalenka returns the ball to Italy's Camila Giorgi during their women's singles match on day seven of the Roland-Garros Open tennis tournament. (Photo by Christophe ARCHAMBAULT / AFP)

Two accomplished power players face off with 250 ranking points on the line in the final here at the Libema Open in Hertogenbosch.

When Ekaterina Alexandrova and Aryna Sabalenka take the court, who will be the winning tennis pick?

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Ekaterina Alexandrova

Sunday, June 12, 2022 – 06:00 AM EDT at Centre Court

Ekaterina Alexandrova Player Profile

The Russian power player Ekaterina Alexandrova earned a trip to the final with her first win over compatriot Veronika Kudermetova.

Alexandrova had never beaten Kudermetova, but she was forceful and emphatic in her win in the semifinals.

Alexandrova took over the match from the start and never left the doubt who the superior player was in a 6-3, 6-1 victory.

Kudermetova's Serve

I had ranked Kudermetova's serve to be more powerful, but Alexandrova dispelled that myth early in the match. Alexandrova finished with six aces and won 80% (20-25) of her first-serve points.

This was in stark contrast to Kudermetova, who was only able to win 50% of her first-serve points. Sometimes, being able to dial up the faster serve on the radar gun does not translate to tennis success.

Ekaterina Alexandrova now has a chance for another successful win against the world's 6th best player.

This would be her second career title. She is 1-2 in finals in her career. She won the Shenzhen Open in January of 2020. She lost in the final of the Linz Open in 2018 and lost in the final of the Kremlin Cup in 2021. This will be Alexandrova's first final on grass.

Aryna Sabalenka Player Profile

Aryna Sabalenka has tantalized tennis fans with her dazzling displays of power throughout her career.

Sabalenka has struggled with consistency, but when she is on, there are very few players who can match her ability to blast the ball.

Sabalenka has definitely not lived up to expectations so far this season. She fell in the second round of the Australian Open, failed to win multiple matches in Dubai or Doha, and then lost in the first round of both tournaments in the Sunshine Double.

She appeared to be getting back on track in the clay season with good performances in Stuttgart and Rome before falling to Iga Swiatek, who is, without a doubt, currently the best player in the world.

Sabalenka is a Winner at Hertogenbosch

Now, here at Hertogenbosch, Sabalenka has her longest winning streak of the season with four consecutive wins.

Aryna Sabalenka has only lost one set en route to today's final. She dropped a set to Alison Van Uytvanck in the quarterfinals before dominating Shelby Rogers 7-6, 6-0 in the semifinals.

Sabalenka comes into this match in fine form and is rightfully the favorite to win the match by WTA odds.

Sabalenka Beating the Odds

Aryna Sabalenka has made the finals in her tournaments 15 times and won 10 times. She has won 4 WTA 1000/Premier 5 titles, but she's still looking for her first Grand Slam victory.

Unfortunately, she will not get an opportunity to win Wimbledon this season due to the British ban on Russian and Belarusian players.

Previous Matches

Ekaterina Alexandrova and Aryna Sabalenka have played each other four times, with each woman winning two times.

Their most recent meeting was in Moscow last October, where Alexandrova was able to prevail in straight sets. Sabalenka won the two previous meetings in 2019.

Alexandrova won their first-ever match in 2017. The women have never played a three-set match.

Player Matchup

Let's take a look at how these two players will match up when they take the court:

  • In what is a rare event for her, Ekaterina Alexandrova will once again not be the most powerful player on the court. Aryna Sabalenka does have the ability to hit with more pace on her serve and on her groundstrokes
  • Aryna Sabalenka has a huge experience advantage. This will be Sabalenka’s 16th final. Alexandrova has only played in 4 finals.
  • Ekaterina Alexandrova has better court coverage. She has much quicker lateral movement and will be able to keep more balls in play than her opponent.
  • Ekaterina Alexandrova has more consistency. Aryna Sabalenka's level play can highly fluctuate, and it is not uncommon for her to have periods in a match where she struggles with unforced errors and double faults.

WTA Pick for Today

Aryna Sabalenka is rightfully favored, but the betting odds are too high to make this a viable wager. Therefore, we will count on these two women to do their best in their serves. We will play the Over.

Both women have an excellent track record when it comes to holding serve, and the quick courts here at Hertogenbosch will accommodate their efforts. I expect to see a very close match that will feature a tiebreak.

Our best bet for today's final at the Libema Open is Over 21.5 games available at BMR's top-rated books.

Tennis Pick: Over 21.5 games (-120) with Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

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Over 21.5 games (-120)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.