Iga Swiatek vs. Ons Jabeur at the US Open WTA Final – Odds and Prediction

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Iga Swiatek of Poland in action against Jule Niemeier of Germany during their Women's Singles Fourth Round match on Day Eight of the 2022 US Open. Julian Finney/Getty Images/AFP

Iga Swiatek and Ons Jabeur take the court today with the US Open trophy on the line.

The first Polish player and the first African player to ever make the US Open final will be featured in an exciting match today.

Let’s take a look at what the WTA odds tell us about these two great players, and find another winning tennis pick.

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Iga Swiatek vs. Ons Jabeur

Saturday, September 10, 2022 – 04:00 PM EDT at Arthur Ashe Stadium

It is fitting that the women with the most impressive seasons are facing off at the last Grand Slam of the year.

For Iga Swiatek it is an opportunity to win her third Grand Slam, for Ons Jabeur it would be her maiden Grand Slam title.

Let's take a look at these two players' strengths and weaknesses and how they match up. 

Iga Swiatek Player Profile and Analysis 

  • Iga Swiatek is a 21-year-old Polish player ranked #1 in the world.
  • Swiatek plays right-handed with a two-handed backhand.
  • Swiatek uses a kick serve, which is highly effective on clay and should play well here at Arthur Ashe today.
  • Swiatek is 9-0 in finals and has never lost a set in a finals match
  • Swiatek is a prototypical all-court player. She is dominant from the baseline, uses heavy topspin, and can mix up pace and angles using slice from both wings.
  • Swiatek has a powerful forehand on short balls to put away mistakes by opponents, yet she is also elite defensively from the baseline. 

Swiatek once again showed she has the heart and tenacity of a champion when she was able to overcome a third-set deficit against Aryna Sabalenka to make the final. She gets better under pressure. 

With a win today, Swiatek would become the youngest three-time Grand Slam champion since Maria Sharapova in 2008. 

A Swiatek win today would make her the first number-one seed to win the US Open title on the women's side since Serena Williams in 2014. 

Ons Jabeur Player Profile and Analysis

  • Ons Jabeur is a 27-year-old Tunisian player ranked number five in the world. 
  • Jabeur plays right-handed with a two-handed backhand 
  • Jabeur has been to 9 WTA finals and has won three titles in her career.  
  • Jabeur is one of the most complete players on tour. She uses more variety than the average player. Her ability to hit slice and vary pace makes her a unique challenge for opponents to figure out. 
  • Jabeur is 42-14 on the year. She has a hold percentage of 72.3% and a break percentage of 40.2% in 2022. 
  • Jabeur is 3-6 in finals in her career. She is 0-2 in hard court finals.  

Ons Jabeur ended the 13 match winning streak of Caroline Garcia in her straightforward 6-3, 6-1 semifinal win. 

Jabeur is just the sixth woman in the last 30 years to make two Grand Slam finals back to back

Player Matchup 

Tennis fans will love this matchup. Both women play with excellent variety and blend power and touch on their shots. 

Both of them have strong service games. Iga Swiatek holds at 75.5%. Ons Jabeur holds at 72.3%.  

Both women can hit the power but will use slice to change the pace. In their previous matches, Swiatek has chosen to be aggressive. It'll be interesting to see if Jabeur uses that experience to force her to change tactics. 

Both players should have enjoyed support from the New York crowd so far in this tournament. It is hard to see who the crowd will end up choosing to support today. 

Iga Swiatek

Swiatek is one of the best returners of all time, breaking at a 52.5% rate this year. That is one of the best season-long numbers we have seen. 

Swiatek has more lateral quickness and court coverage. She is the better defensive player

She also has the experience edge. Her past success in finals cannot be understated. 

Ons Jabeur

Ons Jabeur has an excellent return of serve, breaking at a 40.2% this year.

Jabeur and Swiatek are 2-2 head-to-head. Their most recent meeting was in the Rome final where Swiatek won 6-2, 6-2.  

Best Bet 

I like Iga Swiatek to get her 3rd Grand Slam title today. She has been an absolute steamroller in finals and raises her level of play the bigger the moment. She also will not get discouraged or flustered if things are not going her way, as shown in her semifinal match. 

Ons Jabeur is a great story and will probably make more finals soon given her capability on all surfaces. Unfortunately, she runs into the undisputed best player in the game.

Swiatek has a level that is above every other player in the WTA right now. We will enjoy the greatness and make some money off the dominant Polish superstar.

Our tennis pick for today's US Open final is Iga Swiatek -3 games 

Tennis Pick: Iga Swiatek -3 Games (-115) at Bookmaker (visit our BookMaker Review)

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