How to Bet the 2021 Rolex Paris Masters Semifinals

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Daniil Medvedev chases down a forehand reply to Grigor Dimitrov on October 13, 2021. Frederic J. Brown/AFP

We are down to the final four in the Rolex ATP Paris Masters. Which of these top players should we back to make a winning ATP pick? Let’s get into the ATP odds for today.

Alexander Zverev vs. Daniil Medvedev

Saturday, November 6, 2021 – 11:30 AM EDT at AccorHotels Arena (Central Court)

Alexander Zverev had an excellent performance against the hard-charging Norwegian Casper Ruud on Friday in Paris. Zverev was able to overcome the consistent Norwegian at a score of 7-5, 6-4. Zverev's game fits the court so well with his big serve and consistent groundstrokes.

Paris has one of the slower indoor surfaces. Zverev has time to play comfortably behind the baseline, as is his wont.

Daniil Medvedev took a more circuitous route to his straight-set victory. Medvedev was down a break in the first set before rallying back to win in a tiebreaker. He eventually was able to overcome Hugo Gaston 7-6 6-4. Medvedev is the reigning US Open champion and hits a much flatter ball than Zverev's opponent yesterday, Casper Ruud.

Medvedev and Zverev have played five times with Medvedev coming out on top in four of them. Their most recent encounter was also on an indoor hard court at the ATP Cup in Australia in February. Medvedev was able to overcome Zverev in three sets, winning 3-6, 6-3, 7-5. They also met in the final of this event last season.

Once again Medvedev was able to win in three sets 5-7, 6-4, 6-1. While both players are immensely talented, Medvedev has a little more confidence and mental edge at this point in their careers. Medvedev has a fiery belief in himself while sometimes Zverev can doubt himself. This could be to prove to be the difference once again in this matchup.

I like Daniil Medvedev to get the job done once again on the indoor hard courts of Paris; reminiscent of last year's victory in the Final. Yes, it's true Zverev has improved and gained some confidence, especially in his win at the Olympics where he became a gold medalist.

However, Medvedev is still one step ahead of him in the mental game. I think it will be a close match and another three-set affair, so I will bet on Daniil Medvedev and the match games over 23.

ATP Pick: Daniil Medvedev ML (-132) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)

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Daniil Medvedev ML (-132)
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ATP Pick: Over 23 Games (-104) at Bookmaker

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Over 23 Games (-104)
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Novak Djokovic returns the ball during the ATP Paris Masters at The AccorHotels Arena. Christophe Archambault/AFP)

Novak Djokovic vs Hubert Hurkacz

Saturday, November 6, 2021 - 09:00 AM EDT at AccorHotels Arena (Central Court)

Herbert Hurcacz clinched the 8th spot in the ATP tournament with his performance here in Paris this week. With his place at the ATP final secured, Hurkacz has less pressure and can relish the role of the underdog with fewer expectations. The man with all the expectations will be his opponent tonight, Novak Djokovic.

Hurkacz earned his spot at the ATP finals in Turin with a hard-fought three-set win over Australian James Duckworth. Hurkacz won the first set 6-2, but Duckworth came back and won a tiebreak to finish the second set. Hurkacz was able to win the third and clinched his place in the ATP Finals with a final scoreline of 6-2, 6-7, 7-5. Hurkacz and his team have to be pleased with the win.

He was able to perform under pressure with all the expectations that come with being a player in the top 10. Hurkacz plays better on the bigger stage. 22 of his 36 wins this season have come in Grand Slams and Masters 1000 events. His best performances this season were winning the title in Miami and making the semifinals at Wimbledon.

Novak Djokovic would like to win this tournament in order to secure the world's number 1 title at the year's end. A win here would cement his lead over world #2 Daniil Medvedev. After a strong start to the season, Novak fell short of his dreams of the Olympic gold, Golden Slam, and then the calendar Grand Slam. Djokovic lost in the semifinals at the Olympics and in the Finals to Daniil Medvedev at the US Open.

Djokovic went three sets in the second round here in Paris against Marton Fucsovics 6-2 4-6 6-3. He looked stronger in his quarterfinal victory over Taylor Fritz winning 6-4 6-3. Djokovic has won an unprecedented 36 Masters titles in his career. He has never lost in the semifinals here in Paris, with a record of 6-0.

Novak has a 2-0 head-to-head record over Hurkacz but those were in 2019 and on different surfaces. Therefore, they do not have very much bearing, relevance, or predictive value to determine the outcome of this match.

I like Novak to get the job done here today and get it done quickly. Hurkacz will naturally feel a bit of relaxation after competing so hard to earn his spot in Turin. The business-like Djokovic will take advantage of it and win quickly. I like Novak Djokovic at the game spread of -4.5 for our last ATP pick.

ATP Pick: Novak Djokovic -4.5 games (-106) at Bookmaker

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Novak Djokovic -4.5 Games (-106)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.