Hamburg European Open 2022 Odds, Preview and Picks

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Spain's Carlos Alcaraz chases down a ball from Germany's Alexander Zverev during the Roland-Garros Open tennis tournament. (Photo by Thomas SAMSON / AFP)

The top seed of the Hamburg Open is in action today when Carlos Alcaraz takes on Filip Krajinovic. Let’s take a look at this match to find another winning tennis pick.

Carlos Alcaraz vs. Filip Krajinovic

Thursday, July 21, 2022 – 12:00 PM EDT at Center Court

Filip Krajinovic

Player Profile

  • Filip Krajinovic is a 30-year-old Serbian player who is ranked 43 in the world.
  • Krajinovic plays right-handed with a two-handed backhand.
  • Krajinovic was not impressive during the clay season, going 1-3 during the European clay swing.
  • Krajinovic is 18-13 on the year.
  • Krajinovic is 5-5 overall on clay this year.
  • Krajinovic's hold percentage is 77.4% and his break percentage is 21.8%.

Player Analysis

Krajinovic won his first-round match over the in-form Sebastian Baez. He was able to pull out a tense victory in the 6-1, 4-6, 7-6 match.

He has made five finals in tournaments over his career but has never won a tournament. His most recent final was in June at the Queen's Club Championship.

Krajinovic was a finalist here in Hamburg last season.

Carlos Alcaraz

Player Profile

  • Carlos Alcaraz is a 19-year-old Spanish player ranked 6 in the world.
  • Alcaraz plays right-handed with a two-handed backhand.
  • Alcaraz is 36-5 on the year and has won 4 ATP titles in 2022, including two Masters 1000 tournaments.
  • Alcaraz's hold percentage is 86.1% and his break percentage is 30.5%.
  • Alcaraz is 20-2 on clay this season.

Player Analysis

Alcaraz struggled in his first-round match against Nicola Kuhn but was able to win in a third-set tiebreak. The final score was 3-6, 6-1, 7-6.

He is the number one seed here in Hamburg and is favored by ATP odds to win the tournament.

Players Matchup

Who Has the Better Serve?

It is tough to see where Filip Krajinovic has the advantage here. The area in which they are closest is the serve, but Carlos Alcaraz’s serve is already at the same level as Filip Krajinovic’s.

Krajinovic could hold serve if he has a high first serve percentage, but Alcaraz is already one of the best returners in the world.

Who Is Better From the Baseline?

Carlos Alcaraz will have a big advantage from the baseline. Alcaraz is able to generate power and offense from deeper in court than most players on the ATP tour.

Who Is Better at Point Construction?

Alcaraz has the advantage in point construction. For a 19-year-old, he already has the strategic wiles of a tour veteran.

Who Has the Better Backhand?

Krajinovic does have a solid backhand. He should be able to hang with Alcaraz in backhand to backhand cross-court rallies.

Who Has More Experience?

While Filip Krajinovic technically has played more matches, Carlos Alcaraz has more experience having success at the very highest levels. So yes, a 30-year-old player is playing a 19-year-old player, yet it's hard to say that Krajinovic has the experience edge.

Who Has the Better Hold/Break Percentage?

Alcaraz has the better hold/break percentage by an astounding 17.4%.

Who Has the Crowd Advantage?

Because he is destined for stardom, Carlos Alcaraz will most likely have the support of the crowd.

Alcaraz vs. Krajinovic: Betting Odds and Pick

The top-rated sportsbooks have properly-favored Carlos Alcaraz.

  • Alcaraz is -455 on the moneyline.
  • The game spread is -4.5.
  • The total games are set at 21.

Krajinovic has a strong serve, so it is plausible he could push this game total Over. However, I do think Alcaraz wins handily, especially after finding his form in his first match back on clay after the grass swing.

The Best Bet

Alcaraz will have the advantage in any extended rally. Both men have exceptional backhands, and those cross-court rallies should be spectacular. Krajinovic has the skills to make this an aesthetically pleasing and fun match for spectators, even if the scoreline isn't close.

That is why our bet for Hamburg Open's featured match is Carlos Alcaraz -4.5 games. Even if one set goes long, Alcaraz could have a set blowout in a 2-set victory. I was looking at the set handicap but it is priced at -159, which is not juice that I'm comfortable laying.

The game spread is the best way to approach this featured match. Alcaraz is back in form and I expect to see more genius from the young man who has shown his aptitude on clay this season. It's a tough draw for Krajinovic, who is defending finalist points, but that's the way these things work sometimes.

ATP Pick: Carlos Alcaraz -4.5 (-115) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

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Carlos Alcaraz -4.5 (-115)
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