We are in the round of 16 at the Hamburg Open in Germany.
Let’s take a look at today’s featured match to find another winning tennis pick.
Lorenzo Musetti vs. Emil Ruusuvuori
Wednesday, July 20, 2022 – 12:00 PM EDT at Center Court
Two up-and-coming players face off in the Round of 16 when Lorenzo Musetti meets Emil Ruusuvuori.
Both players are coming into their form, and this match will represent an excellent test for both men. Let's take a look at each player and how they match up.
- Lorenzo Musetti is a 20-year-old Italian player ranked 62 in the world.
- Musetti plays right-handed with a one-handed backhand.
- Musetti has a picturesque one-handed backhand and mixes topspin and slice quite well.
- He also has a solid forehand that he uses as a weapon.
Musetti debuted on the ATP Tour in 2020, though he has yet to win a title at the ATP level. He has proved his high-level play on the Challenger circuit, however, winning four titles.
Musetti is at his best on clay. After a forgettable grass season where he failed to win a match, he'll be happy to be back on his preferred surface.
Musetti won his opening match at Hamburg in a three-set victory over Dusan Lajovic, who is also best on clay. Musetti was clutch when it counted, saving two match points on the way to the victory.
- Musetti is 14-17 in the 2022 season.
- His hold percentage is 76.4% and his break percentage is 22.2%.
- Emil Ruusuvuori is a 23-year-old player from Finland ranked 42 in the world.
- Ruusuvuori plays right-handed with a two-handed backhand.
- Ruusuvuori hits with power from the baseline, and he is quite comfortable in long rallies.
Ruusuvuori had an impressive opening-round win against Diego Schwartzman, the 14th-ranked player in the world. Ruusuvuori won 7-5, 6-4 in one of his most high-profile wins of the season.
Ruusuvuori has yet to win an ATP Tour title in his career, but he has won 10 titles at the Challenger level.
Ruusuvuori uses a heavy topspin serve which allows him to pin his opponent into a deep defensive position on his service games.
- Ruusuvuori is 22-19 on the season. He is 8-7 on clay this season.
- His hold percentage is 80% and his break percentage is 25%.
Both players are comfortable from the baseline, so this should be a long match with plenty of long rallies.
Musetti has a faster serve, but Ruusuvuori can pin his opponents just as deep. While Ruusuvuori's serve is not as flashy and he will not get the same ace statistics, his serve is just as helpful at helping him get into a dominant position to win service games.
Musetti and Ruusuvuori have never played against each other, and neither player comes into the match in their top form, so both will be looking to build momentum.
Musetti has the flashier game, but Ruusuvuori is more consistent. Ruusuvuori has the better hold/break percentage by 6.4%.
This is a tough match to handicap for sure. Both players aren't in their best form, but both had inspiring wins in their first-round match here. Both wins could point to each player being on the upswing. They both beat accomplished clay-court players.
Consistency Will Be an Issue for Musetti
I think Musetti has the higher ceiling as a player, but he is also less consistent. If Musetti plays his best, he will win, but as I said, consistency is an issue. His level of play fluctuates greatly.
Both players like to grind. This will be a long drawn-out battle, both in the number of minutes played and in the total number of games.
Ruusuvuori has value on the moneyline. He has a better record this season and his hold/break percentage is much better. I prefer his consistent play to Musetti’s flashiness. Musetti will be a good player eventually, but at only 20 years old, he has a lot of room to grow. At plus money, Ruusuvuori is a good bet.
We will also take the Over. I would not be surprised to see a three set battle between two clay court grinders. I think both players will put on a show, and this will be an ideal match to have on the feature court, with two players fighting for every point.
In what should be a fun match between two up and coming players, the ATP odds for today's Hamburg Open featured match sway us to the Over 22.5 games and Emil Ruusuvuori ML.
ATP Pick: Over 22.5 games (-103) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.