Hamburg European Open 2022 Free Betting Preview and Picks

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Argentina's Francisco Cerundolo reacts during his men's single tennis match round of 16 against Britain's Ryan Peniston. Daniel Leal / AFP

The semifinals are here at the Hamburg Open. We have featured all the remaining players in articles at Bookmakers Review this week, so this is a fun exercise regarding players with whom we have already taken a deep dive.

Let’s take a look at the last four standing and find more winning tennis picks.

Lorenzo Musetti vs. Francisco Cerundolo

Saturday, July 23, 2022 – 09:30 AM EDT at Center Court

Lorenzo Musetti won a battle between two players who had suddenly found their form here in Hamburg. Francisco Cerundolo is continuing his high level of play that led him to win the tournament in Bastad last week.

Let's take a look at these two players and how they match up.

Player Matchup

Lorenzo Musetti

Lorenzo Musetti displayed many of the traits that led him to be one of the top prospects on the ATP Tour in his 6-4, 6-3 win over Alejandro Davidovich Fokina.

His ability to generate pace from behind the baseline shone through. He used brilliant shot-making from all over the court en route to the easy win.

Musetti has the slightly better serve, though it is not big enough to make the serve much of an advantage when it comes to handicapping this match.

Francisco Cerundolo

Francisco Cerundolo is showing why tennis betting can be so much fun. At any given time players like this can enter a hot streak like Cerundolo is currently experiencing right now. This can lead to some fun, unexpected results.

Is the fatigue finally catching up to Francisco Cerundolo? He struggled against Aslan Aratsev but raised his level at the end of the match to grab the victory. After accruing many hours on the court last week, it is fair to ask: how long Cerundolo can maintain this level before fatigue sets in?

Although Musetti can dial up more power from the baseline, Cerundolo has more variety. Cerundolo is also more skilled at point construction and he has more experience in high-profile matches this season.

He has shown an ability to find weaknesses in his opponent's game and then exploit them, while Musetti prefers to use his superior ball striking to simply bludgeon his opponents into defeat.

Best Bet

Will Lorenzo Musetti make a “Cerundolo-like” emergence this week? Francisco Cerundolo had been pretty quiet in terms of results since Miami, but completely raised his level of play in this last week. Will Musetti experience a similar renaissance?

To be fair, I think it is quite possible. However, one of the main arguments to be made against Cerendulo right now is fatigue. Although he did show signs of fatigue against Karatsev, I hate using that as the sole basis of the handicap unless it involves extreme travel or time zone change. If we are to look at it from a tennis perspective, I feel that Cerundolo has the matchup advantage here.

Two Powerful Players Face Off

Cerundolo has shown that he can absorb power from bigger hitters. While Musetti can make brilliant shots, Cerundolo should be able to thwart some of them and use his rally tolerance to really put Musetti to the test.

Cerundolo's variety will also ensure that Musetti is not able to tee off on every single ball. Cerundolo will not try to simply outhit Musetti, which a couple of Musetti’s opponents did this week to no avail.

Francisco Cerundolo will continue his improbable run and get the win over the upstart Italian today. Fatigue would be the major culprit in a letdown here, and while that is quite possible, we will handicap this match based on that tennis matchup and not possible fatigue.

ATP Pick: Francisco Cerundolo ML (-120) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

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Carlos Alcaraz vs. Alex Molcan

Saturday, July 23, 2022 - 10:50 AM EDT at Center Court

Carlos Alcaraz completely dominated Karen Khachanov in the quarterfinals. Alcaraz posted an impressive 6-0, 6-2 scoreline.

Alex Molcan continued his run of good play in a tight first set against Borna Coric. Molcan jumped out to an early 2-0 lead in the second set and the fragile Croatian retired with injury. Molcan played well. This was a match that was a nice test for Molcan, and Molcan passed with flying colors.

Let's take a look at these two players and how they match up.

Player Matchup

Both players have impressive serves, and on the clay court which dulls the effectiveness of the serve, I don't think that this will be too much of a factor in the match. Both players will use the serve to gain an advantage on their groundstrokes, but we are seeing far fewer free service points than we would on a hard court.

Let's look into other factors that could determine the outcome of this match.

Carlos Alcaraz

Alex Molcan usually has the advantage in power, but Carlos Alcaraz could match him or even exceed him, especially on the forehand side.

Alcaraz is quicker and more consistent. He gets more depth on his groundstrokes, which will allow him to be aggressive earlier in points.

He also has the advantage in court coverage and defense, and he has the experience advantage as well. He has gone up against and defeated the best players in the world. He is used to playing at this stage of the tournament.

This tournament represents an absolutely excellent, and so far rare, opportunity for Molcan to win his first ATP title

  • Carlos Alcaraz is 22-2 on clay this season.

Alex Molcan

Molcan is left-handed, meaning his formidable forehand plays to his opponent's backhand, though Alcaraz has a solid backhand and this shouldn't be the advantage that it is against most players.

  • Molcan is 13-5 this season on clay.

Best Bet

I think that Carlos Alcaraz will get the win. Unfortunately, the ATP odds reflect that, and I don't believe this is the best way to approach betting on this match. Alcaraz has the advantage in many different categories but the ATP odds already account for that, and then some.

Molcan Will Put up a Good Fight

I believe that Alex Molcan can keep this match close. His ability to hit with power off both sides helps him win his service games on clay. If Molcan gets a slight advantage in court position, he can hammer his opponent into a spot where he can get an easy winner.

He also has a nice mixture of drop shots that he employs when his opponents give him short balls, giving him multiple ways to attack and keep his opponent on his toes.

Rather than take the game spread with Molcan, which is always vulnerable to a third-set blowout by the better player, I believe the better bet for this match is the Over. Molcan can hold serve and will be able to put some pressure on Carlos' serve as well.

One tiebreak or a 3-set match are both completely plausible given the way these two players match up.

ATP Pick: Over 20 Games (+100) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.