The US Open semifinals are here. Four women will compete for a chance to play in the final on Saturday.
When these four talented players take the court, who will be the winning WTA pick?
Caroline Garcia vs. Ons Jabeur
Thursday, September 8, 2022 – 07:00 PM EDT at Arthur Ashe Stadium
Caroline Garcia continues her hot streak after mowing down American sensation Coco Gauff in a quarterfinal match.
Ons Jabeur had a straightforward quarterfinal win over Ajla Tomljanovic. When these two stars face off, who will be the winning WTA pick?
Caroline Garcia Analysis
We have to start this section talking about form. Caroline Garcia is in the best form of her life and has been playing the best tennis I've ever seen her play; she is a versatile player who prefers to play with power.
The French currently has the highest hold rate of any player in the WTA. She uses blistering, accurate serves to get easy service points and uses placement to make sure she is always in control on her service points.
Caroline Garcia has the better serve. She should be able to hold at a higher rate than Jabeur, and will win many of the short points. Garcia will do her best to make sure the points are over quickly.
Ons Jabeur Analysis
Ons Jabeur is a crafty player who employs strategy and guile in order to get the win. She is capable of hitting with power and will put away shots when given the opportunity, but her defense can be very tricky and deceptive.
Jabeur will constantly mix the pace to avoid letting power players continuously blast the ball against her. The Tunisian has more variety from the baseline, and she should have an advantage in extended rallies.
Jabeur technically has the experience edge. However, most of her experience has been negative, and at this point, we have to wonder if she is facing issues with nerves in the big time events. Today will mark an opportunity for her to dispel those ideas.
Jabeur is fairly popular and will probably have the slight support of the home crowd.
WTA Best Pick
Although I love WTA for its upsets, at this point of the tournament with these high level players, the field becomes more chalky like an ATP event. It's hard to go against a player of Garcia's form in the WTA odds right now. She played an excellent match against Coco Gauff, and her accuracy and precision were on full display.
Unfortunately for Ons Jabeur, this could be another big time disappointment. She is coming against the wrong player at the wrong time.
Jabeur will have more opportunities, though. Our bet for today's WTA US Open semifinal is Caroline Garcia -2.5 games.
Iga Swiatek vs. Aryna Sabalenka
Thursday, September 8, 2022 - 08:15 PM EDT at Arthur Ashe Stadium
Both players should have even crowd support to start. As we know about Arthur Ashe, one player could emerge as the crowd favorite as the match progresses.
Iga Swiatek Analysis
Swiatek has much more defensive ability. She is by far the more consistent player of the two. The Polish has consistency as a strength, while consistency has constantly plagued Sabalenka.
Swiatek has an experience advantage. Like Ons Jabeur, she consistently comes up short in big Grand Slam matches. Meanwhile, Swiatek has won Grand Slams before.
Aryna Sabalenka Analysis
Sabalenka has the bigger, more flashy serve. However, they hold at the same rate and even though Sabalenka might put up more breathtaking aces, the serving category is even.
The Belarusian can hit with more power. She has a lot of power as well, this will be the rare time where her opponent is hitting the ball much heavier than she is.
WTA Best Pick
You guys know I love Swiatek as a player. It's going to be very hard for me to pick against her.
Maybe if Sabalenka was in elite form the way that Garcia is, you can make an argument, but this version of Sabalenka, while good, has not been unstoppable.
Swiatek has the tools and mental fortitude to solve any problem that her opponent presents her with. She will do this once again with Sabalenka's blistering pace that she delivers from her groundstrokes and serves. Swiatek will not be intimidated.
The slow courts of Arthur Ashe Stadium will give Swiatek time to set up and deliver the ball back where she wants. Another match, another favorite, we're taking Iga Swiatek -3 games.
WTA Pick: Iga Swiatek -3 Games (-111) at Bookmaker
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.