Citi Open 2022 Semifinals Preview and Best Bets

profile image of Spread.Astaire
Andrey Rublev returns a shot against J.J. Wolf of the United States during Day 7 of the Citi Open. Patrick Smith/Getty Images/AFP

Four men remain at the Citi Open in Washington DC. Andrey Rublev and Yoshihito Nishioka will meet for a chance at participating in the finals.

Which player should we back to make another winning tennis pick

Andrey Rublev vs. Yoshihito Nishioka

Saturday, August 06, 2022 – 09:00 PM EDT at Stadium

Andrey Rublev is the number one seed and was expected to be playing in the semifinals. Yoshihito Nishioka has secured a number of upsets in order to continue advancing. Will the Cinderella story end here? Let's take a look at these two players and how they match up. 

Andrey Rublev Player Profile and Analysis 

  • Andrey Rublev is a 24-year-old Russian player ranked 8 in the world.  
  • Rublev plays right-handed with a two-handed backhand that is solid.
  • Rublev has won 11 ATP titles in his career.  
  • Rublev is an aggressive player. Rublev relies on his forehand and will attack at any opportunity he gets.
  • Rublev rarely makes errors off the backhand side, preferring to be more aggressive from the forehand side
  • Rublev has spent the least time on the court of all the four players remaining here in Washington. He has yet to lose a set this tournament. 

Yoshihito Nishioka Player Profile and Analysis 

  • Yoshihito Nishioka is a 26-year-old Japanese player ranked 96 in the world. 
  • Nishioka plays left-handed with a two-handed backhand.  
  • Nishioka was an underdog in all four of his wins here in Washington. 
  • Nishioka has won one ATP title in his career. He has also won six Challenger titles.
  • Nishioka jumps up and down between Challenger and ATP level events and won a Challenger event in Columbus in January. 
  • This tournament marks the first time that Nishioka has won four matches in a row against top 40 players
  • Nishioka’s quarterfinal win was a grind. He defeated Dan Evans 7-6, 4-6, 7-5 in a grueling match that took 3 hours and 35 minutes

Player Matchup  

Andrey Rublev plays a much more aggressive game. He should have an advantage from the baseline. Rublev's powerful forehand will be the main weapon he will use to attack Nishioka's backhand during cross-court rallies.  Rublev also has the better serve. He does, however, drop his pace quite significantly on the second serve, and his second serve can be attacked. 

Yoshihito Nishioka is a grinder who likes to put his opponents to the test through consistency and forcing them to play long, drawn-out matches. The match will be on Rublev's racket. If Rublev plays well, he should get the victory. 

Tired Legs

Nishioka could be more susceptible to fatigue. He has spent much more time on the court so far this tournament. Rublev has much more experience playing in these late stages of the tournament. 

Nishioka and Rublev are 1-1 against each other. Nishioka won in Sydney in 2019 and Rublev avenged the defeat at the ATP Cup in Australia in 2021. 

Rublev vs. Nishioka Best Bets

This is an interesting handicap for sure. Andrey Rublev is head and shoulders above Yoshihito Nishioka when it comes to talent, and even quality of victories so far. Nishioka has consistently beat players that are more talented than he is this week, through a combination of effort and strategy.

Nishioka has spent an inordinate amount of time on the court, he does not seem to be suffering from fatigue, even though he has played multiple matches through humidity and multiple stoppages in play due to the rain. 

When you have a player like Nishioka “redlining” or playing at their top level, it is always an interesting handicap. We know that this level of play is unsustainable, but it is not uncommon for it to last 1 week, even 2 (see Francisco Cerundolo 2 weeks ago).  

The Betting Picks

The ATP odds show Rublev to be a huge favorite. He is -500 on the moneyline. The game spread is set at -4.5 games. The total is set at 21.5 games. I was debating going between the game spread and the Under, and I've decided the game spread is the best option due to Nishioka's potential fatigue.

PLAY NOW: $25,000 Free-To-Play NFL Contest: BMR’s 2022 Pick’Em Pool Opens for Registration

If he does force the third set, the amount of time that he's had on the court this week could end up finally rearing its ugly head. Rublev is in fine form and I don't think that Nishioka can pull off another upset against this caliber of player in top form.

ATP Pick: Andrey Rublev -1.5 Games (-165) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

ATP Pick: Rublev/Nishioka Under 21.5 (-117) at GTbets (visit our GTbets Review)

*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.