Carlos Alcaraz vs. Lorenzo Musetti Hamburg European Open 2022 Final Preview and Pick

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Spain's Carlos Alcaraz reacts as he plays against Germany's Alexander Zverev. (Photo by Anne-Christine POUJOULAT / AFP)

The finals of the Hamburg Open are here. Carlos Alcaraz will take on Lorenzo Musetti for 500 ranking points and the chance to lift the Hamburg Open trophy. Let’s take a look at this match to find another winning tennis pick.

Carlos Alcaraz vs. Lorenzo Musetti

Sunday, July 23, 2022 – 9:00 AM EDT at Center Court

Carlos Alcaraz vs. Lorenzo Musetti 

Carlos Alcaraz was expected to be at this point, he was the number one seed coming into this tournament. Lorenzo Musetti has found his form coming off of four straight losses going into this tournament. Let's take a look at each player and how they match up.

Carlos Alcaraz Player Profile and Analysis

Carlos Alcaraz and Alex Molcan played even for the first 12 games of the set in their semifinal encounter. Alcaraz would jump ahead with a break, but Molcan would break right back. These players were nose to nose going into the tie break. 

However, in the tie break, Alcaraz showed why he is one of the best players in the world and completely obliterated Molcan. This success carried over to the second set and Molcan wilted while Alcaraz was able to raise his game. This shows the brilliance of Alcaraz. Under pressure, Alcaraz gets better, while that pressure can often melt younger, less experienced opponents. This definitely could come into play today with Lorenzo Musetti having that same level of experience as Alex Molcan.

  • Alcaraz is a 19-year-old Spanish player ranked 6 in the world. 
  • Alcaraz plays right-handed with a two-handed backhand.
  • Alcaraz is 38-5 on the year and has won four ATP titles in 2022, including two Masters 1000 tournaments. His hold percentage is 86.1% and his break percentage is 31.6%.
  • Alcaraz is 22-2 on clay this season.

Lorenzo Musetti Player Profile and Analysis

In yesterday's column, I asked the proverbial question if Lorenzo Musetti could make a "Cerundolo-like" rise at this tournament. Francisco Cerundolo had overcome a slew of mediocre results to win last week's tournament in Bastad. Musetti has that same opportunity in the final. Regardless of the results against Carlos Alcaraz, it is fair to say that he has proven the point that he is on the rise. His success here will catapult his ranking into the top 40.

Cerundolo did look fatigued in the match, but credit to Musetti for finding a way to shine through. However, there were certain periods in which it felt that he let the weary Cerundolo off the hook. He will not be afforded such luxuries against Alcaraz today.

  • Lorenzo Musetti is a 20-year-old Italian player ranked 62 in the world.
  • Musetti plays right-handed with a one-handed backhand.
  • Musetti is at his best on clay. After a forgettable grass season where he failed to win a match, he'll be happy to be back on his preferred surface.
  • Musetti debuted on the ATP Tour in 2020. He has yet to win a title at the ATP level.
  • Musetti has proved his high-level play on the Challenger circuit, however, winning four titles.
  • Musetti has a picturesque one-handed backhand and mixes topspin and slice quite well. He has a solid forehand that he uses as a weapon.
  • Musetti is 17-17 in the 2022 season. His hold percentage is 76.3% and his break percentage is 24%.

Player Matchup

  • Lorenzo Musetti has a brilliant forehand and it will play well in forehand to forehand rallies.
  • Carlos Alcaraz has the better backhand. He will have an advantage in these rallies.
  • Alcaraz has a slightly better serve, but it is at the baseline where he will find his large edge.
  • Alcaraz plays with more variety. He is superior in point construction.
  • Alcaraz is more consistent. He will be the better defender. He has superior quickness and court coverage.
  • Alcaraz has the experience advantage. He has been on this level and higher many times to perform well. Musetti has yet to win an ATP tournament.
  • Alcaraz has played Musetti once. He was able to win 7-5, 2-6, 6-3. The match was played on clay.
  • The crowd will most likely be on Carlos Alcaraz's side. Tennis is a weird fanbase in the fact that the underdog isn't as favored by the crowd in neutral settings as often as it is in other sports.

Best Bet

Carlos Alcaraz is 6-0 in finals matches. He has only faced a player outside of the top 50 in a final once, and he only lost four games in that match. I think this is too much for Lorenzo Musetti in the first ATP final of his career.

Lorenzo Musetti has shown an inability to maintain his top level play over the course of a match. This inconsistency reared its ugly head against the fatigued Francisco Cerundolo in their semifinal match. 

Musetti had the match easily in hand yet he let the pressure lower his level of play. Although he was able to pull off the win against the tired Cerundolo, Carlos Alcaraz will exploit this with ease. Alcaraz will swiftly take advantage of any drop in level of play.

Carlos Alcaraz has been dominant in finals so far in his career and there's no reason to not expect that to continue. Before the tournament, I predicted Carlos Alcaraz to win the title. I'm not going to switch this now. Our bet for today's Hamburg Open Final is Carlos Alcaraz -5 games.

ATP Pick: Carlos Alcaraz -5 games (-110) at BookMaker (visit our BookMaker Review)

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Carlos Alcaraz -5 games (-110)
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