2023 Australian Semifinals Best Bets: Stefanos Tsitsipas Will Advance to the Final Tonight

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Greece's Stefanos Tsitsipas reacts during his round-robin match against Russia's Daniil Medvedev on November 16, 2022 at the ATP Finals tennis tournament in Turin. (Photo by Marco BERTORELLO / AFP)

Tennis Pick: Stefanos Tsitsipas -4.5 games (-105) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)

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The men’s semifinals are this evening in the Australian Open. Four men remain, vying for one of the most prestigious titles in the sport. Let’s take a look at tonight’s matches to find more winning tennis picks

American fans of tennis looking to make some bets on the AO can do it at any of these top US betting sites.

Karen Khachanov vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas

Thursday, January 26, 2023 – 10:30 PM EST at Rod Laver Arena

Player Matchup

Stefanos Tsitsipas comes into this match playing some of the best tennis of his career. He has yet to lose a quarterfinal match in a Grand Slam after his win over Jiri Lehecka 6-3, 7-6, 6-4. Tsitsipas is one win away from Pat Rafter as the most quarterfinal wins in a Grand Slam without a defeat in his career. 

After a subpar season last year, Tsitsipas is finally healthy. We can see the difference on the court as he is now looking like a top player once again. He has yet to lose a match this year and is 9-0 in 2023. This will be his third consecutive semifinal here at the Australian Open. He is now the youngest player to have six semifinals in Grand Slams since Andy Murray in 2011. 

Tsitsipas has been excellent in the quarterfinals but has yet to find success in the semifinals. He is 0-3 in the semifinals at the Australian Open. This will be the first time, however, that he has played against a player outside of the top 10 in a semifinal. 

Karen Khachanov is playing excellent tennis as well. He has only lost two sets so far in this tournament. The world's number 20 player will be moving up in the rankings after this excellent showing. Khachanov has been excelling at Grand Slams, going 15-3 since the beginning of the 2022 season. The three losses were all to high-level players, Rafael Nadal, Carlos Alcaraz, and Casper Ruud. 

Karen Khachanov has struggled against the world's top players. He has lost his last 22 matches against the top 10 players. His last win against a top-10 player was in the Montreal Masters in 2019. With a win today, he would become a top-10 player, however. 

What Can We Expect Tonight?

Stefanos Tsitsipas and Karen Khachanov have played each other six times. Tsitsipas has the better of the matchup winning five of those matches. Their most recent encounter was in Rome in 2022 where the Greek was able to get the win. They have played on hard courts 4 times and Tsitsipas won all 4 matches. 

I like Stefanos Tsitsipas to get another win here. He's playing the best tennis of his career and his style matches up really well against Khachanov. Tsitsipas can match him for the serve and his ability to put pressure on his opponent's serve will be the difference in the match today.

He has also improved his return of serve and the results are showing as he is finally a threat to take down a Grand Slam title. Our first bet for the Australian Open semifinals is Stefanos Tsitsipas -4.5 games.

Tennis Pick: Stefanos Tsitsipas -4.5 games (-105) at Bookmaker 

Novak Djokovic vs. Tommy Paul 

Friday, January 27, 2023 - 03:30 AM EST at Rod Laver Arena

Player Matchup

Tommy Paul defeated up-and-coming American Ben Shelton in the quarterfinal. Tommy Paul got the win 7-6, 6-3, 5-7, 6-4. The draw opened up well for Tommy Paul and he is taking advantage of it. 

Paul is somewhat of a late bloomer. He finally won his first ATP title in Stockholm at the end of 2021. Since then, he has moved up to be one of the top players on the tour and is a threat to defeat anybody. Last season, he defeated the top five players Rafael Nadal and Carlos Alcaraz. Paul has blossomed under the coaching of Brad Stine. Stine worked with Jim Courier and was his coach when Courier won the Australian Open 30 years ago. 

Novak Djokovic's list of accomplishments is unparalleled in the men's game today. He has won the Australian Open nine times and won in the last three seasons that he played. A hamstring injury led people to question his ability to take down this year's title. After dominant wins against Alex de Minaur and Andrey Rublev to move into today's match, he looks fully healthy. 

What Can We Expect Tonight?

Paul is a great story but he will have problems defeating the all-time great Novak today. However, the ATP odds reflect that and there's no value in betting on Djokovic who currently sits at -2500 on the money line.

If you are to play the game spread, you have to lay an exorbitant eight games, which is once again too high to take Djokovic. Still, it is not enough to entice me to take Paul, making this a correct line. 

The way to approach this game is by playing the Over 30.5 games. The reason that we will play the Over and not the game spread is that as Djokovic settles in, he could throttle Tommy Paul in the later sets, ruining our cover. However, if Paul gets off to a strong start, the Over will be safe.

I do expect Paul to play well, especially early in the match before Djokovic figures him out. So while Novak will likely win the match, Tommy Paul will acquit himself well. Our best bet for the second semifinal match tonight is Novak Djokovic vs. Tommy Paul Over 30.5 games. 

Tennis Pick: Novak Djokovic vs. Tommy Paul over 30.5 games (-106) at Bookmaker 

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.