ATP Pick: Novak Djokovic -5.5 Games (-120) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
The winner of the Australian Open will be determined tonight when Stefanos Tsitsipas and Novak Djokovic take the court. Both players come into the match in excellent form. When these two men square off, who will be the winning tennis pick?
Novak Djokovic vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas
Sunday, January 29, 2023 – 03:30 AM EST at Rod Laver Arena
The Australian Open title and the world's number-one ranking will be on the line in Melbourne tonight. The winner of tonight's match will have enough points to move into the number one slot in the ATP ranking system.
This is a crucial match for both men. Novak Djokovic is trying to add to his all-time legacy, and Stefanos Tsitsipas is trying to win his first Grand Slam title. Who will prevail? The grizzled veteran or the up-and-coming star?
Novak Djokovic looked to be nursing a hamstring injury over his first week here at the Australian Open. However, his play in the last three matches has dispelled this notion as he has looked absolutely dominating en route to the final. Novak Djokovic looks to be back to his dominating self, the man who is already won nine Australian Open titles.
Djokovic only dropped 20 combined games in the round of 16, quarterfinals, and semifinals. Only three players in the Open Era have conceded 20 or fewer games in these rounds. Ivan Lendl in 1990 and Andre Agassi in 2003. Both men won the tournament.
His over Tommy Paul made him the all-time leader at the Australian Open for most consecutive wins. He passed Andre Agassi with his 27th straight win. His last loss at the Australian Open was against Hyeong Chung in 2018.
He has never lost an Australian Open final and has beaten a top 10 player in eight of his Australian Open finals. Four of those wins were in straight sets.
Stefanos Tsitsipas comes into this match with concerns about his ability to close out in big moments. His match against Jannik Sinner was a lot closer than it should have been. Tsitsipas also blew match points against Karen Khachanov in the semifinals.
This is a big part of tonight's match because Stefanos Tsitsipas has blown a lead against Novak Djokovic in a Grand Slam final before. In 2021 he had a two-set lead against Djokovic in the French Open final but fell in five sets.
He has shown mental fortitude against the world's top players in the past, however. He defeated Roger Federer at the Australian Open in 2019 and came back from two sets down here at the Australian Open against Rafael Nadal in 2021. So looking at his past results, you can make a case for or against his ability to raise his level to that of the all-time great today.
Novak Djokovic has played Stefanos Tsitsipas 13 times and has a 10-3 head-to-head advantage. Novak Djokovic has won their last nine official matches and has won all five times the two have met in finals. The two men met four times in 2022 and Djokovic won all four matches. Both players come into the year undefeated on the season.
For Stefanos Tsitsipas to have a chance, he will have to start strong. Novak Djokovic is 294-8 in Grand Slam matches where he won the first set. On hard courts in Grand Slams, Novak Djokovic is 146-3 after winning the first set.
Stefanos Tsitsipas can keep this match close to start, but in the end, Novak Djokovic's excellent level of play will be too much. It is challenging for these young players to have to go against an all-time great.
There are referendums against their mental toughness when to be expected to beat a player of Djokovic's caliber is unfair. These young players are all great, but the shadow of players such as Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal has dulled our perception of them. However, their greatness does exist and cannot be denied.
Stefanos Tsitsipas will keep this match close but Novak Djokovic will prevail in the end. We have two bets for you to take advantage of at US betting sites.
The first one is the Over 9.5 games in the first set. This match should be close at the start before Djokovic eventually wears down his younger opponent.
The second bet is Novak Djokovic by the game spread established at the ATP odds. By the end, I expect Djokovic to be fully dominating and to pull away.
ATP Pick: Novak Djokovic -5.5 Games (-120) at Bookmaker
ATP Pick: 1st Set Over 9.5 games (-125) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.