Only two men remain in the field in the ATP Stockholm. Which man will become victorious and lift the tournament trophy? Which wager presents the most value to make a winning ATP pick?
The WTA finals continue in Guadalajara. The world’s top eight women continue the prestigious year-end tournament. Which woman should you wager on to make a winning WTA pick? Let’s break down the tennis odds for these fixtures!
Tommy Paul vs. Denis Shapovalov
Saturday, November 13, 2021 – 10:00 AM EST at Center Court
Tommy Paul recorded the upset against fellow American Frances Tiafoe on Friday in Stockholm. Tiafoe was up 7-5, 6-5. He was serving for the set when Tommy Paul broke back to force a tiebreak. At this point, all the momentum in the match belonged to Tommy Paul and he was able to win in the third set 6-4.
Paul’s win was buoyed by his ability to get things done on his second serve. Paul won 65% of his second-serve points. This was quite impressive and was in stark contrast with Tiafoe’s 50% success rate on second serves. This put consistent pressure on Tiafoe. The pressure wore him down as the match ensued.
Denis Shapovalov was terrific in his straight-set win over Canadian Countryman Felix Auger-Aliassime. Shapovalov was able to convert an impressive 67% of breakpoints (4/6). This allowed him to get his first victory over Auger-Aliassime since 2019.
This is an interesting matchup. Shapovalov’s ceiling is much higher, but his floor is so much lower. Shapovalov enjoys playing here in Stockholm. He lifted the trophy as champion in 2019. This is Shapovalov’s last chance to win a title in 2021. His previous best result this season was to reach the final in Geneva.
Tommy Paul is playing the best tennis of his life but it’s hard to go against Shapovalov in this form. If Shapovalov continues his high level of play, he should be able to get the job done against a very tough opponent, Tommy Paul. Shapovalov’s technical brilliance was on display yesterday and I expect that once again he will be raising the Stockholm open trophy.
Aryna Sabalenka vs. Iga Swiatek
Saturday, November 13, 2021 - 08:30 PM EST at Center Court
Both women struggled in their opening matches here in Guadalajara. Iga Swiatek played an in-form Maria Sakkari. She fell to the talented Greek player 6-2,6-4. Swiatek struggled with her first serve, making only 48% and winning only 59% of the serves she landed.
Compared to Sakkari’s impressive 96% of first-serve points won, it was by far the difference in the match. Swiatek will need to win more of her first-serve points and be more accurate with her first serve if she wants to keep pace with the powerful Sabalenka.
Sabalenka’s power was on display as she jumped out to an early break against Paula Badosa, but she subsequently fell apart. After losing a closely-contested first set 6-4, Sabalenka fell in the second 6-0. As Sabalenka’s form disappeared, one had to wonder how much her recent bout with Covid affected her stamina and conditioning. Sabalenka did not appear to be the same player at all in the second set.
She looked listless and lifeless as Badosa raced to the victory. Covid has taken its toll on certain athletes, some players have required months to fully recover. Playing in the high altitude of Guadalajara at 5,500 FT elevation is definitely a detriment to Sabalenka’s chances here.
Swiatek is one of the most complete players in the world. She is by far her best on the slower European clay. Yet she has the game that will translate to hard-court success as she continues her development on tour. This tournament provides a great opportunity for Swiatek to display her maturation on the hard courts. I expect her to be a top contender on hard courts within the next two seasons. Tonight, however, she faces an easier challenge. She is not facing a full-strength Sabalenka.
I expect Swaitek’s strong groundstrokes, defensive ability, and smart point construction to allow her to overcome a Sabalenka that is still not at full strength. Sabalenka must be frustrated. This is her first opportunity in a major tournament as the number one seed. She is not physically capable of playing at her best level.
At a normal tournament, perhaps Sabalenka could play her way into form against players where she has the decided skill advantage. Yet here at the WTA Finals, where she will only face the world’s best, it is a tough task to ask for a player recovering from an illness that can hinder lung power and conditioning. Unfortunate circumstances for Sabalenka lead to value on Iga Swiatek for our second tennis pick.
WTA Pick: Iga Swiatek ML (+114) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.