2021 Rolex Paris Masters Final Preview

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Daniil Medvedev returns the ball to Alexander Zverev during their their semi-final match of the ATP Paris Masters. Christophe Archambault /AFP

The final of the ATP Rolex Paris Masters is set. World’s #2 Daniil Medvedev will face off against the world’s #1 Novak Djokovic.

Which top player should you wager on to make the winning ATP pick? Let’s break down the ATP odds for this great final.

Daniil Medvedev vs. Novak Djokovic

Sunday, November 7, 2021 – 09:00 AM EST at AccorHotels Arena (Central Court)

Daniil Medvedev absolutely rolled in a 6-2, 6-2 victory over the world's #4 Alexander Zverev in the semis. Zverev came into the match playing great tennis so one must rate this victory by Medvedev very highly.

After Medvedev saved two break points at 1-2, he won 10 of the next 11 games. This dominant stretch allowed Medvedev to close the match in 80 minutes. In the semifinal victory, Medvedev had 14 winners and eight unforced errors. Medvedev was an astonishingly efficient 4/5 on breakpoints.

This will be the sixth time in his career that Medvedev has made an ATP Masters 1000 final. His first Masters' final was in Toronto in 2019. He fell short to Rafael Nadal in that match. Since then he has won at Cincinnati, Shanghai, Toronto, and here in Paris. He is still making consistent growth as a tennis player, even at the top level of play. Medvedev remains the biggest threat to a member of the "Big Three" in an ATP event.

Medvedev is at an excellent level of tennis right now. He is 22-2 in his last 24. He has been the only person to give Djokovic trouble as of late. Medvedev has gone 4-2 in his last six against Djokovic.

He is the only player to really be able to solve Djokovic's game over the elite run that the Serbian number one has had in the past two years. Their most recent match was at the US Open where Medvedev was able to prevail and win his first Grand Slam title.

Shortening Gap

Novak Djokovic had a tougher match to reach the Final as he needed a third-set tiebreak to overcome Hubert Hurkacz. I thought Novak would prevail and cover the 4.5 games spread that I had given out in an article play here at Bookmakers Review.

Novak Djokovic returns the ball to Hubert Hurkacz during their semi-final match of the ATP Paris Masters. Christophe Archambault/AFP

Novak dropped the first set 6-3 but came back with a vengeance. He won the second set 6-0. He was up a break in the third but Hurkacz broke back and sent the match to a deciding tiebreaker. That tiebreaker was incredibly close as well. The score was 5-5 in the tiebreak when Novak reeled off two brilliant points in a row to take the victory. Djokovic was able to overcome adversity in a dramatic match in order to set up this final between the world's number one and two.

Novak Djokovic is 34 years old. He is at the “a little past my Prime but still so elite I will beat most players” stage of his career. The signs of slippage are there. But as his rivals Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal have shown, their level of play was so much higher than the rest of the field that, even with a little slippage, they are better than everyone except the best of the current players. Novak is showing inconsistency lately and cannot rely on winning his service games as often as he could over the past couple of years.

He is still the best player in the world, but we can see the rest of the field catching up to him. Novak is still the cream of the crop but the gap is shortening between him and the rest of the top 10. Two years ago Djokovic would have never allowed a player at Hurkacz’s current level of play to get so close to victory against him. One can see the ATP will be more competitive in the next two years than it was in the last two.

The Pick

I like Daniil Medvedev to get the victory here over Djokovic. Medvedev is in much better form and seems to have found the secret to beating the world number one. Medvedev's flat groundstrokes and aggressive play seem to rattle Djokovic. Novak is not able to break serve as easily as he is against the other ATP players. Medvedev was able to win in straight sets in the US Open while only serving 57%.

This was because he was able to win 41/51 first service points. Medvedev had the advantage in 2nd serve points won at 58% to 40%. It is very rare for Djokovic to have the less successful win percentage against second services.

Medvedev is able to somewhat neutralize Djokovic's elite return game. This gives him a fantastic opportunity to get the victory. I believe that Medvedev will successfully defend his title and is the winning ATP pick.

ATP Pick: Daniil Medvedev ML (-120) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

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Daniil Medvedev ML (-120)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.