The final set of UCL round 16 matches is upon us, and we’re back with another helping of best bets and game predictions. The stats have been analyzed, and we’ve studied the current form of each squad to provide you with an informed collection of Champions League predictions for Tuesday and Wednesday’s fixtures.
It’s the Round of 16 leg two meetings this week, as the Premier League champions, Manchester City, will hope to keep their lead over Leipzig. However, all isn’t well for English squads, as Liverpool needs to fight back from a 5-2 deficit on Spanish soil versus Real Madrid. Continue reading for our top soccer picks and free predictions.
Our Top Betting Picks for UCL Round of 16 Leg 2
Manchester City vs. Leipzig: Both Teams to Score – Yes (-111) at Everygame
Man City is unbeaten in their previous 23 Champions League home games – winning 21 of those meetings. While another home win is highly probable, backing both teams to score is where the betting value lies. Leipzig has scored in 10 of their 11 games and should capitalize on a City defense that’s been inconsistent this season.
- Confidence Rating: 3/5
Real Madrid vs. Liverpool: Over 3 Goals (-112) at BetOnline
Liverpool must attack from the opening whistle until the 90th minute to give themselves a chance to recover a three-goal deficit Real Madrid obtained in the first leg. The home side has been formidable at the Bernabeu this term and will return to Liverpool’s attacking style with a dangerous counter-attack. All of this will lead to a high-scoring game.
- Confidence Rating: 3/5
Manchester City vs. RB Leipzig Information
- When: Tuesday, March 14, 2023 – 04:00 PM EDT
- Where: Etihad Stadium
- Moneyline Probability: Man City 73.3% (-275) vs. Leipzig 12.5% (+700)
- Win/Loss (Last 5, All competitions): Man City W/W/W/W/W – Leipzig L/W/D/W/W
UCL Trends, Odds, & Picks
- Man City is unbeaten in 23 Champions League home games
- Man City has won 5 consecutive UCL home meetings
- RB Leipzig concedes an average of 2.00 goals in UCL fixtures
- Leipzig have lost their previous three games when playing in England
Achieving the Treble
Gaining a slight edge over Crystal Palace for a 1-0 final score wasn’t the prolific display most critics expected Manchester City to deliver this past weekend. Still, Pep Guardiola will be laser-focused on two crucial fixtures ahead of his team this week.
Before a reunion with Vincent Kompany and his Burnley squad in the FA Cup quarter-finals, Man City welcomes RB Leipzig to the Etihad and will hope to build on a 1-1 tie we witnessed in Germany during the first leg.
We must note City was the dominant side in the first leg meeting, owning the possession and shots-on-target statistics. They were unfortunate not to walk away with the victory but have notably won four consecutive games since returning from Germany.
The Germans Can Find the Net
Leipzig has allowed 13 goals in their previous three visits to English grounds, and this doesn’t bode well when faced with a side like City, who’s been dominant in front of goal this term. Furthermore, the blue side of Manchester has won their previous nine UCL home meetings with German clubs, and Leipzig was one of those teams – losing at the Etihad 6-3 in 2021.
While Leipzig is unquestionably the outsiders heading into Tuesday’s meeting, they’ve found the net in 12 of their last 13 UCL appearances. They’ve also scored in 10 of their 11 games in 2023, and both teams have scored in all their head-to-head meetings with City.
Both Teams to Score: The Betting Pick Formula
With an FA Cup tie on the weekend’s schedule, City won’t have the chance to gain pace on Arsenal in the Premier League standings. However, with a record of 23 unbeaten Champions League home games, avoiding defeat against Leipzig would see the Citizens rival Arsenal’s unbeaten home streak in this competition of 24 home games.
The Champion Leagues odds favor Manchester, and rightfully so, but the juiced moneyline price doesn’t do us, bettors, any favors. For an excellent price of -111, both teams finding the net is an ideal proposition, and although we expect City to dominate, Leipzig is good for at least one goal.
We Predict: Man City 3 – RB Leipzig 1
Soccer Pick: Both Teams to Score – Yes (-111) at Everygame
Real Madrid vs. Liverpool Information
- When: Wednesday, March 15, 2023 – 04:00 PM EDT
- Where: Santiago Bernabeu
- Moneyline Probability: Real Madrid 43.5% (+130) vs. Liverpool – 34.5% (+190)
- Win/Loss (Last 5, All competitions): R Madrid W/D/L/D/W – Liverpool L/W/W/D/L
UCL Trends, Odds, & Picks
- Liverpool lost the first leg at Anfield 5-2
- Over 3.5 goals have landed in 3 of Real Madrid’s last 5 games
- Real Madrid has won 4 consecutive UCL home meeting
An All-Out Attack From Jurgen Klopps Side
Third-placed Premier League side Manchester United suffered a 7-0 hammering at the hands of Liverpool. And then, in their domestic return, Liverpool lost 1-0 to EPL basement dwellers Bournemouth. The unpredictability of Jurgen Klopp’s side this term makes them a huge red flag as a bettor, and despite losing to Real Madrid 5-2 in the first leg, it wouldn’t be surprising if they won Wednesday’s meeting.
Entering the second leg with such a huge deficit, the five away goals for Los Blancos will need a huge response from Liverpool, forcing them into an all-out attack for 90 minutes. Playing it safe or defensively won’t work, and this could lead to a high-scoring affair.
A Comfortable Lead for Madrid
The counter-attacking opportunities for Real Madrid will arrive in bunches this Wednesday. As the Reds are forced to attack, Los Blancos will fight on the break, and with the return of Karim Benzema – who netted two in the first meeting – it’s likely the home side will find the net on multiple occasions.
Barcelona is the only squad to defeat Real at the Bernabeu this season. While we should expect a Liverpool team with an attacking mindset, overcoming Los Blancos in the Spanish capital won’t be a simple task.
Over 3 Goals (-114): The Betting Pick Formula
Liverpool’s unpredictability will continue, and despite losing 5-2 at Anfield, the bookmakers still aren’t confident in the Spanish side, as the current Champions League odds reflect this with plus-money for either side.
However, if there’s one outcome, we can bank on, its goals. Liverpool is forced to attack if they are to rebound from a three-goal deficit, and Madrid will undoubtedly take advantage of a high backline.
We Predict: Real Madrid 3 – Liverpool 3
Soccer Pick: Over 3 Goals (-112) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
