UEFA Champions League Round of 16 Leg 2 Best Bets: Two German Giants Expected to Advance to the Quarter-Finals

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Bayern Munich's goalkeeper Yann Sommer makes a save as Paris Saint-Germain's forward Lionel Messi reacts on February 14, 2023. Photo by FRANCK FIFE / AFP

Our Top Betting Pick for UCL Round of 16 Leg 2

Soccer Pick: Borussia Dortmund +½ Goal Line (-106) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

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Borussia Dortmund +½ Goal Line (-106)
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Picks Summary:

  • Borussia Dortmund +½ Goal Line (-106)
  • Bayern Munich vs. Paris Saint-Germain – Under 3.5 Goals

We’re back with another set of UCL best bets and game predictions. The stats have been analyzed, and we’ve studied the current form of each squad to provide you with an informed collection of Champions League soccer picks for Tuesday and Wednesday’s fixtures.

It’s the second Round of 16 leg 2 meetings this week, and two German giants, Bayern Munich, and Borussia Dortmund will return with a first leg advantage over their foes Chelsea and PSG. Continue reading for our top betting picks and free predictions.

European soccer fans looking to wager on this weekend’s fixtures can do so at any of the best US betting sites available.

Champions League Round of 16 Leg 2 Best Bets  

Chelsea vs. Borussia – Borussia Dortmund Goal Line Reasoning    

  • Confidence Rating: 3/5   

Dortmund has won 10 consecutive games and the first leg of this UCL fixture 1-0.

Given the contrasting forms between the German outfit and Chelsea, receiving a +½ handicap for (-106) on a team capable of winning this game is excellent betting value.

Chelsea has won just 2 of their 12 games this term and hasn’t looked capable of stringing together a positive result versus mid-tier teams, let alone the elite-level ones.  

Soccer Pick: Borussia Dortmund +½ Goal Line (-106) at Heritage Sports 

Bayern Munich vs. Paris Saint-Germain – Under 3.5 Goals Reasoning 

  • Confidence Rating: 3/5   

We don’t expect a 1-0 scoreline as we witnessed in the first leg, but Bayern can hold PSG to limited goal-scoring moments behind the home crowd’s support.

In addition, under 3.5 goals have landed in 5 of Bayern’s last 6 games in all competitions, and the German giants have conceded just 22 goals from 23 Bundesliga appearances this term.   

Soccer Pick: Under 3.5 Goals (-133) at Everygame 

Chelsea FC vs. Borussia Dortmund Information  

  • When: Tuesday, March 7, 2023 – 03:00 PM EST 
  • Where: Stamford Bridge  
  • Moneyline Probability: Chelsea 51.9% (-108) vs. B Dortmund 23.8% (+320)  
  • Win/Loss (Last 5, All competitions): Chelsea W/L/L/L/D – B Dortmund W/W/W/W/W   

UCL Trends, Odds, & Picks  

  • Dortmund are unbeaten in 7 of their last 8 Champions League appearances.  
  • Chelsea concedes an average of 0.71 goals in the UCL games.  
  • Dortmund has won 10 consecutive games in all competitions.  
  • Chelsea has scored 5 goals in 2023 thus far - winning just 2 of 12 games in all competitions.  
  • Dortmund won the first leg meeting 1-0. 

Will Graham Potter Ever Settle in as Chelsea Boss?  

Taking a 1-0 domestic victory over Leeds United this past weekend was a well-needed win for Graham Potter and his Chelsea squad, as 2023 has provided nothing but lackluster results and just two winning games from twelve appearances.  

Despite their weekend success, Chelsea looked timid and instantly parked the bus when taking the lead. It's understandable, as Potter desperately needed the three points.

However, with a must-win Champions League fixture ahead, relying on defense won't be enough as they'll welcome Borussia Dortmund with a 1-0 deficit from leg 1.  

Unstoppable Dortmund  

Borussia Dortmund are Europe's biggest spenders, and after losing the most prolific striker in professional football to the Premier League last summer, they've been hunting for glimpses of hope in other areas. The good news is they've found it following the World Cup break.  

Three months into 2023, Dortmund is riding a 10-game win streak across three competitions.

They're level with Bayern Munich in the Bundesliga standings and shouldn't be overlooked in the UCL tournament.   

Borussia Dortmund +½ Goal Line (-106): The Betting Pick Formula  

The Champion Leagues odds favor Chelsea, but the (+300) moneyline price on the visitors doesn't make much sense from a betting standpoint. This 3/1 value on Dortmund seems like a gift as they visit a team sitting tenth in the EPL standings without a win versus a top-tier team in 2023.  

Dortmund not only holds the advantage from the first leg but when you look at the bigger picture, there's no reason to fear this year's version of Chelsea.

The blues could be outplayed once again if the Bundesliga outfit continues its current form, and there's no reason to back Potter's men in their current state.  

With only five goals netted in 2023 and such a price discrepancy, we can find incredible value on the Dortmund +½  spread. 

Score Prediction: Chelsea 0 – B Dortmund 1  

Soccer Pick: Borussia Dortmund +½ Goal Line (-106) at Heritage Sports 

Bayern Munich vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC Information  

  • When: Wednesday, March 8, 2023 - 03:00 PM EST 
  • Where: Allianz Arena  
  • Moneyline Probability: B Munich 54.5% (-120) vs. PGS - 26.2% (+282)  
  • Win/Loss (Last 5, All competitions): B Munich W/W/L/W/W – PSG W/W/W/L/L  

UCL Trends, Odds, & Picks  

  • Bayern Munich are undefeated in 16 of their last 17 Champions League meetings.  
  • Bayern Munich has won 7 consecutive UCL games.  
  • PSG are unbeaten in 6 of their last 7 UCL fixtures.  
  • Under 3.5 goals has landed in 5 of Bayern's previous 6 games in all competitions.  
  • Bayern won the reverse fixture 1-0.  

Another Cagey Affair Expected in Munich      

Memories of the 2019-20 UCL final arose during the first leg meeting between Bayern and PSG, who lost football's most coveted trophy to a Kingsley Coman strike, and it was an exact replication when the German giants arrived in the French capital for the first leg of the last-16 meeting.  

Hearts were beating on Valentine's Day, but no love was lost between Coman and PSG.

A 53rd-minute winner from their former academy alum sealed the deal as Julian Nagelsmann's squad advanced to the second leg with one foot firmly positioned in the UCL quarter-finals.  

Bayern is now halfway to avenging their 2020-21 UCL quarter-final exit at the hands of PSG. They should feel confident with a historical record that's seen them eliminated from the last 16 on just one occasion from twelve previous UCL campaigns.

In addition, Bayern has won 15 of their last 17 elite-level European games on home turf, including three consecutive wins at the Allianz in their group-stage meetings with Barca, Inter Milan, and Viktoria Plzen.  

Five for Seven in Paris 

PSG have been eliminated from the Champions League round of 16 in four of their past six seasons, as manager Galtier will be worried about his job if the pride of Paris goes five for seven in UCL-R16 eliminations.

More worryingly, PSG has only advanced in 1 of their last 6 UCL knockout ties after losing the first leg.   

Under 3.5 Goals (-133): The Betting Pick Formula  

The previous twelve meetings between these two sides have delivered a 50/50 set of results - as each team has collected half a dozen wins, and the current Champions League odds reflect this, as the home favorites are only in this position because of the game's location.  

However, Bayern's impeccable defense on home soil this term is a reason to back the under 3.5 goals.

I wouldn't expect such a small scoreline as the 1-0 result we witnessed in the first leg, but at the same time, gifting the duo of Messi-Mbappe opportunities to score will be limited by the Bayern back four.  

Score Prediction: Bayern Munich 2 – Paris Saint-Germain 1    

Soccer Pick: Under 3.5 Goals (-133) at Everygame (visit our Everygame Review)

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Under 3.5 Goals (-133)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.