UEFA Champions League Round of 16 Leg 1 Best Bets: Two EPL Sides Can Take a First Leg Advantage

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Liverpool's Egyptian midfielder Mohamed Salah (C) makes a failed header attempt at a goal during the UEFA Champions League final football match between Liverpool and Real Madrid at the Stade de France in Saint-Denis, on May 28, 2022. Franck Fife/AFP

Our Top Betting Pick for UCL Round of 16 Leg 1   

RB Leipzig vs. Manchester City Pick: Both Teams to Score (-154) at Everygame (visit our Everygame Review)

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RB Leipzig/Manchester City Both Teams to Score (-154)
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We’re back with another set of UCL best bets and game predictions. The stats have been analyzed, and we’ve studied the current form of each squad to provide you with an informed collection of Champions League predictions for Tuesday and Wednesday’s fixtures.  

It’s the second Round of 16 leg 1 meetings this week, and we expect a couple of EPL sides to perform well when Liverpool meets an old rival in Real Madrid and English champions Manchester City travel to face RB Leipzig. Continue reading for our top betting soccer picks and free predictions.  

UCL Round of 16 Leg 1 Picks Summary

  • Liverpool vs. Real Madrid Pick: Liverpool Moneyline (+133) at Bookmaker.eu
  • RB Leipzig vs. Manchester City Pick: Both Teams to Score (-154) at Everygame

Champions League Round of 16 Leg 1 Best Bets  

Liverpool Moneyline Reasoning

  • Confidence Rating: 3/5  

Despite the lack of consistency for Liverpool’s domestic run this term, they’ve recently found their form, and this can be recognized alongside their 5-game win streak in the UCL competition. Real Madrid isn’t looking as fierce as they once did, and with a revenge spot on home turf arriving at Anfield just as the Reds gain some confidence, a home victory at plus money is holding some excellent betting value.   

UCL Pick: Liverpool Moneyline (+133) at Everygame (visit our Everygame Review)

Both Teams to Score Reasoning

  • Confidence Rating: 4/5   

Leipzig has scored at least two goals in 4 of their previous 6 games in all competitions, and City has netted seven from their last three games. Both teams’ scoring has been a continuous trend at the Red Bull Arena this term, and the home side has yet to draw a blank when defending their home turf.   

UCL Pick: RB Leipzig/Manchester City Both Teams to Score (-154) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review

Liverpool vs. Real Madrid Information  

  • When: Tuesday, February 21, 03:00 PM EST
  • Where: Anfield
  • Moneyline Probability: Liverpool 42.9% (+133 at Bookmaker) vs. Real Madrid 31.8% (+214 at BetOnline)  
  • Totals Probability: Over 3 Goals – 65.5% (+116 at Heritage Sports) / Under 2 ½ Goals – 47.6% (+110 at Everygame)   

  • Liverpool has won 5 consecutive UCL games during this year's competition  
  • Liverpool has won by at least 2 goals in their previous 4 UCL appearances
  • Real Madrid struggled on the road in their Leipzig and Shakhtar UCL games  
  • Real Madrid has won just of their last UCL games versus English teams   

The Reds Are in A Revenge Spot with a Home Advantage

Following an abysmal beginning to their Premier League domestic campaign of the 2022/23 season, Jurgen Klopp's Liverpool squad has seemingly found their form as they return to UCL action behind three consecutive wins to nil.  

Moreover, they'll face Real Madrid, as the bitter taste of losing last year's Champions League final Los Blancos still lingers in the mouth of Liverpool fans, and the perfect revenge spot has now emerged.  

The Reds suffered a painstaking defeat to Real in last year's UCL final in Paris, but the defending champions of this prestigious competition have won just one of their last seven road trips versus English squads. Furthermore, their La Liga season has also displayed a lack of composure, with rivals Barcelona taking the lead in the title race.  

In theory, Real Madrid shouldn't be priced with such a large underdog price. After all, they did arrive in the UCL final 16 as one of the favorites to win it all. However, the bigger picture has displayed many red flags, including a draw to Shakhtar Donetsk and a 3-2 defeat at Leipzig during the group stage.   

The Betting Pick Formula: Liverpool Moneyline (+133) 

The Champion Leagues odds favor Liverpool, however, we can find plus money offerings on each moneyline. But if we're to pick a winner of this fixture, it's challenging not to recognize the two forms of each squad and favor Klopp's men.  

We watched Liverpool get dismantled by Napoli in their UCL opener (4-1), but they bounced back in style and won five consecutive games with 16 goals netted during that stretch. They've already proven their worth in European battle, which has now been matched with their domestic form.  

We Predict: Liverpool 3 – Real Madrid 2  

Liverpool vs. Real Madrid Best Bet: Liverpool ML (+133) at Bookmaker

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Liverpool ML (+133)
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RB Leipzig vs. Manchester City Information  

  • When: Wednesday, February 22, 03:00 PM EST
  • Where: Red Bull Arena  
  • Moneyline Probability: Leipzig 22.7% (+340 at Bookmaker) vs. Manchester City - 33.6% (-125 at Bookmaker)  
  • Totals Probability: Over 3 goals - 45.7% (+119 at Heritage Sports) Under 3 goals - 58.5% (-141 at Heritage Sports)   

  • Both teams have scored in Manchester City's previous three games  
  • Leipzig have scored in all of their home fixtures this term (all competitions)  
  • Leipzig has scored at least two goals in their last 4 UCL games  
  • Man City scored an average of 2.33 goals in their Champions League fixtures  

Expect Goals in Germany

It's been a roller-coaster for Manchester City in recent weeks. After trailing Arsenal in the EPL standings for most of the season, they finally returned to the summit. However, they were soon knocked off the top spot when the Gunners resumed their winning ways, and Pep Guardiola couldn't guide his team to three points when visiting Nottingham Forest.

A 1-1 scoreline versus a lackluster Nottingham Forest squad doesn't bode well for Guardiola's side; Now they must travel to Germany and compete with Leipzig, who've lost just one game on home turf this season and also defeated Real Madrid when they visited the Red Bull Arena.  

With successes over Real Madrid and Borussia Dortmund when playing on home turf this season, Leipzig is entirely capable of causing an upset on Wednesday. They also held Bayern Munich to a draw and will be fired up to give the English champions a run for their money.  

More worryingly for City fans, their team has won just one of their last five away games in all competitions. And during the UCL group stage, this squad only managed just one win.

The Betting Pick Formula: Both Teams to Score (-154)

I wouldn't find confidence in backing either moneyline wager but based on the pricing, taking a shot on the home side isn't the worst approach. That said, we're almost certain this 90-minute meeting will provide goals.  

City has scored in 17 of their previous 19 games in all competitions, and both teams have scored in their previous three games in all competitions.  

Both teams have found the net in 11 of 16 games at the Red Bull Arena this season, and Leipzig hasn't been prevented from scoring at least one game on home turf.   

We Predict: RB Leipzig 2 – Manchester City 2  

RB Leipzig vs. Manchester City Best Bet: Both Teams to Score (-154) at Everygame

*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.