UEFA Champions League Group Stage Matchday 5: Betting Picks and Predictions

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Barcelona's Polish forward Robert Lewandowski (2L) kicks the ball as he vies with Bayern Munich's French defender Benjamin Pavard. (Photo by KERSTIN JOENSSON / AFP)

The latest Champions League odds are now available as we return with our heavily researched UEFA Champions League expert advice and free betting predictions for the elite European soccer action ahead of us.

Barcelona is on the edge of elimination and is positioned in a must-win situation. At the same time, Liverpool will attempt to replicate the reverse fixture success against Ajax but has the arduous task of accomplishing this in the Netherlands. Which teams will prosper during Wednesday night’s European battle?

Continue reading for our Champions League Matchday 5 of 6 betting advice, soccer analysis, and soccer picks for the week’s fixtures involving Ajax, Liverpool, Barcelona, and Bayern Munich.

  • David’s Champions League Betting Record 2022/23: 3-5
  • Units Profit: -2u

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AFC Ajax vs. Liverpool FC

Wednesday, October 26, 2022 – 03:00 PM EDT at Johan Cruyff Arena

Champions League Trends

  • Liverpool won the reverse fixture at Anfield 2-1.
  • Ajax has lost 3 consecutive Champions League fixtures.
  • Over 2.5 goals have landed in Ajax’s previous 4 Champions League appearances.
  • Liverpool has won their previous 3 UCL meetings with Ajax.

The Dutch Outfit Needs Goals and Points

The Wednesday night meeting at the Johan Cruyff Arena forces Ajax into a position where anything less than a victory would see them take an early exit out of the Champions League with a game to spare.

However, a victory on home turf against the formidable Liverpool, a victory over Rangers in the final game of the group stage, and a hope that Napoli can repeat their matchday 1 performance and dismantle the scousers could see Ajax level the Reds on points. They’re significantly short (-6) on goal difference, ultimately determining the qualifying team should this scenario play out.

It's a stretch of the imagination, but if any squad is known for fighting in European competition, it’s Ajax. This fight was displayed in their opening 4-0 smashing of Rangers; unfortunately, allowing Napoli to score 10 goals in their two meetings has evidently affected the team's morale, as they’ve now lost three UCL appearances on the bounce.

Defeating Liverpool would unquestionably be the Eredivisie champions’ most relevant Champions League success since being seconds away from meeting Jurgen Klopp’s men in 2019 before Tottenham’s last-second shocker sent the Dutch squad packing.

However, as their current domestic form has picked up and they’ve had two weeks to recollect their European approach, Ajax will have nothing to fear heading into the midweek encounter with Liverpool.

Liverpool Doesn’t Perform on the Road

If we use Liverpool’s domestic success this term as a gauge for their visit to Holland this week, Ajax is incredibly under-priced by the best sportsbooks at +275. The Reds have consistently failed to deliver in their road games, losing four of their previous meetings when playing outside of their Anfield fortress.

Recent success in the Premier League over Manchester City and West Ham will undoubtedly boost the Merseyside club’s overall morale. Still, the low-scoring efforts and failure to perform in away games is a glaring red flag we cannot ignore.

Pick and Prediction

The available UCL odds at Bookmakers Review expect the visitors to claim all three points, but the first meeting between these two sides was extremely close. Liverpool managed to win 2-1 with an 89th-minute late entry, and I don’t expect the Dutch champions to roll over this time.

Based on the odds alone and the fact that this is a must-win for Ajax, we have to take our chance on +275 in the most unpredictable soccer competition on earth.

Score Prediction: AFC Ajax 2 – Liverpool FC 1

Soccer Pick: Ajax to Win (+245) [1u wager returns 2.45u] at Everygame (visit our Everygame Review)

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FC Barcelona vs. FC Bayern Munich

Wednesday, October 26, 2022 - 03:00 PM EDT at Spotify Camp Nou

Champions League Trends

  • Barcelona has won just 1 of their previous 6 Champions League games.
  • Barcelona concedes an average of 2.00 goals in their UCL home meetings.
  • Bayern Munich is unbeaten in 13 consecutive Champions League fixtures.
  • Over 2.5 goals have landed in Bayern Munich’s last 5 UCL away meetings with Barcelona.

There’s No Choice but to Open Play

If Inter Milan defeats Viktoria Plzen in their Group C Champions League game, the Catalan outfit will be automatically eliminated from the competition. We’ve witnessed more significant dramas in past UCL tournaments, so don’t assume Barcelona won’t play with everything they have.

It’s a shame that Barca’s domestic success hasn’t translated into the Champions League, as Xavi’s men have now collected 28 points from 11 La Liga matches. Robert Lewandowski is living up to the hype, but the Barca frontman struggled to outwit his former side Bayern Munich in the first UCL meeting between the two clubs.

Collecting just one point from their previous three UCL appearances has left Barca in a fight-or-flight situation. Still, this added stress could easily open up their attack and deliver a plethora of goals at both ends.

12 Points and Two Games to Spare

Bayern Munich has looked unstoppable in their Champions League outings thus far, claiming 12 points and winning all four of their games, netting 13 goals in the process while conceding a mere two goals.

Julian Nagelsmann’s squad ran through Inter 2-0 and Barcelona 2-0 before claiming a double of Plzen with a combined score of 9-2.

However, as Bayern have already qualified for the Round of 16 without the possibility of fixing themselves in first place by claiming one more point in Group C, will the Germans take their foot off the gas in order to save some punching power for their pursuit of 1st place in the Bundesliga?

Pick and Prediction

The current Champions League odds aren’t providing much value as Barcelona are priced at a measly +130, and considering their recent UCL form, I expected a much higher price. For this reason, I’ve looked towards the Over/Under goals market, where Over 3.5 goals can be had for -105.

Considering the importance of this game for the home side and both teams' prolific strike force, a 3-2 scoreline isn’t an unbelievable stance to take in favor of either team.

Score Prediction: FC Barcelona 2 – FC Bayern Munich 3

Soccer Pick: Over 3.5 Goals (-105) [1.05u wager returns 1u of profit] at Everygame

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.