Serie A Matchday 38 Top Betting Picks

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Theo Hernandez (Top) celebrates a goal during the Italian Serie A match between AC Milan and Atalanta Bergamo. Miguel Medina /AFP

The final round of Serie A is upon us and what a season it’s been, we still have not found out our champion heading into the final round, although AC Milan hold all the aces over rivals Inter Milan as they are two points ahead meaning a win and they are champions.  

Let’s check out what soccer picks we are on for the final matchday! Let’s go.

Atalanta BC vs. FC Empoli  

Saturday, May 21, 2022 – 02:45 PM EDT at Gewiss Stadium 

Atalanta BC Performace Recap

This is a must-win game for the hosts if they wish to have a chance at playing European football next season. Atalanta BC currently sit in 8th place, but a win could see them jump into a conference league spot as they are level on points with Fiorentina and one point behind Roma. 

Atalanta have been very poor at home lately and we are unsure if we can trust them, they have not won in their previous 6 home games and suffered a loss in 50% of them.

Atalanta vs. Empoli Betting Pick and Score Prediction

Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals look to be a nice play here as FC Empoli have found their goalscoring form again with 8 goals in their previous 5 games and have also found the back of the net in all five games.  

Atalanta FC have seen both teams scoring over 2.5 goals in 12 of their previous 20 home games. FC Empoli will play with freedom here on the final day, with nothing to play for besides remaining in their current 14th position.  

We would be shocked to see this one go under 2.5 and the sportsbooks agree with the over 2.5 goal line set at Serie A odds of -333 with BMR's top-rated sportsbooks.  

Score Prediction: Atalanta BC 3-2 FC Empoli  

Serie A Pick: BTTS + Over 2.5 (-125) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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BTTS + Over 2.5 (-125)
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ACF Fiorentina vs. Juventus FC 

Saturday, May 21, 2022 – 02:45 PM EDT at Stadio Artemio Franchi 

Fiorentina vs. Juventus Odds Breakdown

Fiorentina have a must-win game here if they want European football and again the sportsbooks have adjusted the odds for this as they have made the home team -130 favorites and the fact Juventus have nothing to play for on the final day has also contributed to this.  

Their normal odds to beat Juventus on home soil would be in around +250/+300 on average so we can’t go anywhere near their current odds. We believe a better play here for slightly better odds is to go with Fiorentina to score over 1.5 team goals for -115.  

Fiorentina, know they need to win and must find the back of the net, the hosts have also scored in 17 of their previous 20 home games. Juventus have conceded in 8 of their previous 10 road games.  

Essentially, we believe Fiorentina won’t win this 1-0 meaning they will need at least two goals, and it's better odds than taking them moneyline, plus you are covered for a 2-2 draw which is our second favored scoreline here after 2-1.  

Score Prediction: ACF Fiorentina 2-1 Juventus FC

Serie A Pick: ACF Fiorentina Over 1.5 Team Total Goals (-115) with BetOnline

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ACF Fiorentina Over 1.5 Team Total Goals (-115)
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US Sassuolo Calcio vs. AC Milan   

Sunday, May 22, 2022 – 12:00 PM EDT at Mapei Stadium – Città del Tricolore 

US Sassuolo Calcio and AC Milan Performance Recap

We are essentially picking our Serie A champion with this pick but we are very confident AC Milan can get the job done against Sassuolo on the final day of the season to lift their first league title since 2011. 

Sassuolo have been incredibly inconsistent this season and their league position doesn’t represent their squad strength as they are sitting in 11th poison, their home form has been mediocre with 6 wins, 6 draws and 6 losses spread across the board. AC Milan meanwhile have picked up 13-4-1 road record making it the best in the league.  

Sassuolo have been able to get some strong results against big teams this season but they have struggled on home soil against AC Milan and lost their previous 5 games against the Rossoneri.  

Milan’s title bid looked like faith when Tonali put them in prime position with his late goal against Lazio four rounds ago, they then impressively beat Fiorentina and Atalanta at home as well as Verona away.

Sassuolo vs. AC Milan Pick and Score Prediction

Milan just need to win here and we believe they will do just that, Sassuolo have a soft underbelly and that’s something Milan can easily exploit having conceded just 2 goals in their previous 5 league games.  

We believe Milan to be crowned Serie A champions. Milan to win and 'under' 4.5 goals at +100 is a really nice set of odds.  

Score Prediction: US Sassuolo Calcio 0-2 AC Milan  

Serie A Pick: AC Milan to Win + Under 4.5 Goals (+100) with BMR’s Top-Rated Sportsbooks.  

AC Milan to Win + Under 4.5 Goals (+100)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.