Editor’s Note: The match between Atalanta and Torino was postponed due to COVID protocols in the Torino squad.
It’s finally here, and although it’s only been two weeks since we saw any Serie A action, it feels like two months. We have some cracking matches to look forward to in a full card on Thursday.
Check out our Thursday selections below and stay tuned for our Sunday selections later in the week on matchday 21. Now, let’s break down some Serie A odds.
Sampdoria vs. Cagliari
Thursday, January 06, 2022 – 06:30 AM EST at Stadio Luigi Ferraris
It’s an early rise on the east coast to check out Sampdoria and Cagliari, and to be honest this is a bet I will be making and checking out the result later, we are not expecting this to be an exciting match.
With that being said there is some incredible value to be had on the home team, with Sampdoria at -115 when, honestly, we were expecting to see around -130.
Although the home side have the 4th worst home record in the league, they face Cagliari with the worst away record in the league with just three points picked up from a total of 27 on their travels this season. Sampdoria are also unbeaten at home in their previous eight meetings against Cagliari.
On top of these stats and trends Cagliari are missing a lot of their key players for this game and this is the main factor why we see Sampdoria winning this one. It won’t be pretty and it could be a 2-1, with a last-minute penalty, etc, but either way, we see them somehow getting the job done.
Atalanta BC vs. Torino FC
Thursday, January 06, 2022 - 10:30 AM EST at Gewiss Stadium
Winless in their previous two games heading into the winter break; Atalanta will be keen to get back to winning ways against a team 13 points behind them in the form of Torino. Respectively, the road team here has performed much better than anticipated this season as they sit in 11th place, 14 points ahead of the relegation zone.
The big factor for us here is the fact Torino is missing Andrea “The Rooster” Bellotti. They have scored only four goals away from home all season, the lowest in the Italian Serie A, and one of these was an own goal. Meanwhile, Atalanta have averaged 2.0 goals per game at home.
We see the home side dominating here and winning this one 2-0 / 3-0 / maybe even 3-1, worst case scenario they win 1-0 or 2-1. We are honestly that confident that they can come back with a bang post-winter break, even without Gosens, Maehle and Freuler. Take the home side on the Asian line -1.0, that way a one-goal win will result in a push.
Atlanta at -200 is also a nice play to add to a parlay if you like to lay some juice.
AC Milan vs. AS Roma
Thursday, January 06, 2022 - 12:30 PM EST at San Siro
The biggest clash of the round (or maybe the second biggest as Juventus and Napoli will also be a humdinger). Either way one of the juiciest clashes this round sees Jose Mourinho’s Roma head to the San Siro to try and improve on their 3-3 scoreline from the last time these teams met at San Siro.
AS Milan are currently 10 points ahead of Roma in the league and will be hoping to come away with a win here to keep Inter Milan (their arch-rivals) in check. The problem for the Rossoneri is they have at least six players and potentially up to eight missing for this game.
Of those eight, roughly half of them are regular starts. Roma have fewer injuries but all their injuries are key players, with the likes of Tammy Abraham, Pellegrini and Spinazzola also missing.
Our main reason for taking Roma to cover the +0.5 or double chance here is because we see this game ending as a draw and given that we can cover the dog and the draw for a reasonable -120, we are more than happy to take this bet here In this situation.
We also like the fact that all the missing Milan players have combined for 14 goals from their 40, which isn’t a whole lot, but it’s enough to make me wonder when their main and top scorer, Ibrahimovic, isn't out. Jose Mourinho always has a trick up his sleeve when facing the big teams, this one could be the game of the weekend.
Serie A Pick: Roma Double Chance or +0.5 (-120) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.