Serie A Matchday 12 Top Betting Picks

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Udinese's defender Nahuel Molina (L) and Inter Milan's forward Joaquin Correa go for the ball. Marco Bertorello/AFP

November, San Siro, derby. It never gets better than this, the pure essence of Calcio. Actually, it can be better when both Milanese teams are involved in the title race, as is the case this weekend, just like it did last year, after a decade of decadence.

As if it wasn’t enough, there is Juventus-Fiorentina too, so let’s get into the Serie A odds for this weekend.

AC Milan vs. Inter Milan

Sunday, November 7, 2021 – 02:45 PM EST at San Siro

The vibes for a Sunday autumn evening with a derby della Madonnina in town is something that every football fan should experience at least once in his life. As someone who hasn't missed a single derby, live at the stadium since 2009 (and apart from the lockdown), I can tell you that the atmosphere in San Siro is absolutely unmatchable.

This works for every derby, even its poorest versions that took place from 2013 to 2017. Imagine now that a scudetto fight is involved. Last year Milan won the first one and took first place exactly until the second derby of the season when Inter won and overtook Milan and went on to win the title.

So it always gives a special boost that lasts for a while, especially this season, after Milan's best start in 67 years, with 10 wins and one draw in 11 games. This is putting Inter in a situation that doesn't allow them to drop points anymore: the Nerazzurri haven't done badly though, with seven wins, three draws, and one defeat.

Nonetheless, the seven-point difference with the Rossoneri means that their scudetto race could be over with a defeat here.

This lack of room to commit mistakes will affect Inter's performance: they are playing consistently good, but keep conceding too many chances, and keep getting surprised on counters. Milan was playing much better a month ago, as they've had only one good performance in the last six games, but it was in the most crucial of games, against Roma. Maybe it wasn't a coincidence that it happened at the right moment.

This time around, San Siro will have a majority of Rossoneri fans, and this will have an impact. Last Wednesday Milan against Porto seemed already distracted with derby, while Inter gave it all. Milan will play between the lines, Inter might not be able to go past a draw with many goals.

Serie A Pick: Draw (+250) at Intertops (visit our Intertops Review)

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Draw (+250)
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Juventus' forward Alvaro Morata shoots to score against Zenit on November 02, 2021. Isabella Bonotto/AFP

Juventus vs. ACF Fiorentina

Saturday, November 6, 2021 - 12:00 PM EST at Juventus Stadium

Juventus dominated Zenit in a way that they've only managed to do so once before, this season, against Malmo. So, that's twice in Champions and never in Serie A. The team was off on a retreat for two days and it seems to be having an effect, for the moment.

Massimiliano Allegri is finally playing Paulo Dybala and Federico Chiesa in their positions. Fiorentina is always proactive but this matchup puts them in a position to open up on the pitch which in turn would leave open spaces, an advantage that a cynical Juve hasn't forgotten how to use.

Anyway, the Bianconeri defense will be too shaky to shut down the player who might turn out to be their future striker, Dusan Vlahovic.

Serie A Pick: Juventus to Win + Both Teams To Score (+175) at Intertops

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Juventus to Win + Both Teams To Score (+175)
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Fiorentina's forward Dusan Vlahovic (C) shoots against Inter Milan on September 21, 2021. Andreas Solaro/AFP

Udinese vs. Sassuolo

Sunday, November 7, 2021 - 09:00 AM EDT Dacia Arena

Udinese is not an entertaining side to watch play but they're definitely solid. This is what Sassuolo is missing the most. A proactive team that's not as sharp as a couple of weeks ago, and missing balance between the defensive and offensive lines.

Both teams come into this match after a defeat, but Udinese's came at Inter while Sassuolo's was at home to Empoli. This should see the visitor have a special motivation to, at least, avoid getting defeated again even though Udinese concedes very little so let's go with the draw for our last Serie A pick.

Serie A Pick: Draw (+245) at Intertops

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Draw (+245)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.