La Liga action this weekend sees us taking a look at some intriguing matches, including the Madrid derby which we have a plus money play for.
Elsewhere we expect some dominant performances from both Valencia and Espanyol on home soil. Let’s take a look at La Liga odds for Matchday 17.
Valencia CF vs. Elche CF
Saturday, December 11, 2021 – 12:30 PM EST at Estadio de Mestalla
Valencia has only lost one home game all season long, and no surprise that was to the league leaders, Real Madrid. Elche, on the other hand, has only won one away game this season, and that was to Getafe, who are second-last in the league right now.
The slight concern for Valencia is that they have drawn a lot of matches this season at home, 50% of their games in fact. They have been trying to close the gap on the top six and this is the perfect scenario for them to pick up three points.
Valencia at -130 is a reasonable value, but we wouldn’t play them any lower than -140. We see a 2-0 / 2-1 home win here so maybe Valencia and over 1.5 might be a play here to get some better odds.
Deportivo Alaves vs. Getafe CF
Saturday, December 11, 2021 - 10:15 AM EST at Estadio Mendizorrotza
We are in love with this play right here, we have all the makings of a perfect storm in terms of cards in this La Liga matchup.
We have Alaves sitting in 17th place, just one spot ahead of the relegation zone, and they have averaged 2.25 cards per game at home. Opponents Getafe have picked up 2.88 cards away from home and sit inside the relegation zone in the 19th. A win for them here would see them go level with Alaves, while a win for Alaves would give them at least a five-point gap to the bottom three.
Our referee here is none other than C.S Grado who has been averaging 5.75 cards per game. With everything that’s at stake here, we see at least six cards handed out in this game and possibly a red also as the referee has handed out two already this season and both teams combined have seen four reds this season.
La Liga Pick: Over 5.5 Cards (-120) at The Best Online Sportsbooks
RCD Espanyol vs. Levante UD
Saturday, December 11, 2021 - 08:00 AM EST at RCDE Stadium
Espanyol has been very impressive at home this season, picking up 17 points in total, the second most at home in La Liga this season (tied with Real Madrid and Barcelona) Levante on the other hand are bottom of the league with eight points in total and they have also picked up the least amount of points on the road with just two from a potential 24.
We are more than happy to take Espanyol on home soil against this Levante team at plus money. Espanyol is undefeated in six home games now and we can’t see Levante upsetting the apple cart here. Even if they do, we are still getting value on Espanyol +110 and we would play this bet again as, given these teams' form, Espanyol wins this six out of 10 at least.
La Liga Pick: Espanyol to Win ML (+110) with BetOnline
Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid
Sunday, December 12, 2021 - 03:00 PM EST at Santiago Bernabéu
The 169th Madrid derby closes out the La Liga card on Sunday night as we have 1st place Real take on 4th place and defending champions Atletico Madrid. Just for some context here, the two teams usually play a tightly fought game with not many goals and plenty of cards to go along with it and that’s the angle we are taking today, well kind of.
18 of the past 20 have seen under 3.5 goals and 13 of those seen under 2.5 goals. We are more than happy to take under 3.5 goals here even though both these teams top the table with the most average goals per game.
The under 5.5 cards is a bit risky as we have two teams who have seen an average of 10.5 cards over the previous 10 games, BUT our referee in charge for this game is notorious "under-cards" referee Lahoz, who has handed out the league’s lowest 3.5 cards per game.
The last time he took charge of this fixture he handed out five cards exactly. You can parlay a safer option for the cards and goals under, maybe under 6.5 cards and under 4.5 goals for your La Liga picks.
La Liga Pick: Under 5.5 Cards and Under 3.5 Goals (+130) at The Best Online Sportsbooks
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.