European Banker of the Week: Tottenham Hotspurs vs. Arsenal FC

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Tottenham Hotspur's striker Harry Kane celebrates after scoring a goal. Alastair Grant/POOL/AFP

Editor’s Note: The Tottenham vs. Arsenal match was postponed due to COVID protocols in the Gunners squad.

We are closing in on the final weekend game of the Premier League here with Tottenham Hotspurs facing Arsenal in this fierce North London rivalry.

What makes this game more enticing is the fact just two points separate these teams and one the Spurs have two games in hand.

Tottenham have opened up on the moneyline at +145, with the draw available at +230 and finally, the road team in Arsenal have been priced as slight underdogs at +190. Let’s break down the EPL odds for this match.

Tottenham Hotspur vs. Arsenal FC

Sunday, January 16, 2022 – 11:30 AM EST at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium

Unavailable Players

Arsenal are missing some key players to their respective nations as they are currently away on international duty at the African Cup of Nations. Tottenham have only lost Pape Matar Sarr to the competition, which isn’t a big loss as he isn’t a starting player.

The Gunners will be without a lot more key players in Thomas Partey, Mohamed Elneny, Nicolas Pépé and maybe we shouldn’t even include the final one in Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang as it seems his playing days with Arsenal could well and truly be over after a fallout with Arteta.

Tottenham

Undefeated across their previous five league games, the Spurs will be confident they can come away from this game with a result given the fact they have more starting eleven players available than Arsenal.

Spurs have picked up two defeats in their previous three games in all competition (both to Chelsea in the EFL Cup).

Tottenham have gone seven games undefeated at home against Arsenal and have only lost twice at home in the previous 10. This is looking heavily favored towards Spurs avoiding defeat.

Although they sit in 6th place behind Arsenal at the minute, they can mathematically move to within one point of 2nd place Chelsea if they win all three of their games in hand.

One big injury concern for Tottenham here is the loss of Son Heung-Min, who is currently out with a muscle injury. The South Korean is the team’s top scorer this season with eight goals scored in 17 games.

They will have to rely on Harry Kane, who is having a below-par season with just four goals to his name in the same number of Premier League games as Heung-Min.

Arsenal

Arsenal come into this road game having won just four of their previous ten away games, which isn’t a super bad return given how hard the Premier League is, but if you want to become a top-4 team you need to be winning at least 50% of your away games.

More importantly, it’s the teams that Arsenal beat in those four away games, three of the four were ranked inside the bottom four in the league, not ideal.

Arsenal have scored just twice away to Tottenham in the previous six games, which is the lowest they have scored away to Spurs over a six-game stretch since at least 1989. That’s as far back as the records we found, so it could be longer or possibly the first time ever they've failed to score more than two over a six-game stretch to their rivals.

Not only are the Gunners missing their African players, but they are also without Emile Smith Rowe and Granit Xhaka, so they are significantly weakened, to say the least.

Arsenal are two points ahead of their rivals, but Spurs have an extra two games to play. Yes, Arsenal would love a win here to create a gap, but we believe they would settle for a draw pregame, if offered to them.

Tottenham Hotspurs vs. Arsenal FC Pick

These two teams have combined for an average of 4.4 yellow cards per game across their last 10 meetings when Arsenal have been the away team.

There has also been two reds handed out in the same period and one of those games was a friendly which saw five yellows (usually friendlies don’t produce more than one or two cards even between rivals).

This is a high number for the Premier League and we are more than happy to bet over 3.5 cards in this one.

Six of the past seven meetings between these teams when Spurs have been the home team have seen under 2.5 goals and just one of the past ten have witnessed over 3.5 goals.

We are going to play it safe here and take under 3.5 goals. Although we like the under 2.5 at -110, this could end up any score, from 0-0 to 2-2 to 3-0 Spurs.

Let’s combine the two for a nice -115 for our soccer pick here. It’s a bit of juice but some small value in our eyes as this play has a much higher percentage of cashing in our opinion.

EPL Pick: Under 3.5 Goals + Over 3.5 Cards (-115) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Under 3.5 Goals + Over 3.5 Cards (-115)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.