EPL Matchday 26 Best Bets: A Positive Weekend for Both Sides of Manchester Expected

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(From L) Manchester United's Brazilian midfielder Casemiro, Argentinian defender Lisandro Martinez and English defender Luke Shaw celebrate at the end of the UEFA Europa league match between Manchester United and FC Barcelona. (Photo by Oli SCARFF / AFP)

Welcome to the home of EPL predictions. Our team of expert handicappers has reviewed the current form and various other trends to deliver the most informed Premier League soccer picks for Matchday 26.  

This week we’re previewing the scheduled EPL fixtures between Manchester City vs. Newcastle, Liverpool vs. Manchester United, and some extra best bets from the remaining games. 

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Our Top Betting Picks for EPL Matchday 26

Manchester City & Over 1.5

Soccer Pick: Manchester City ML & Over 1.5 (-154) at Everygame (visit our Everygame Review)

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Manchester City ML & Over 1.5 (-154)
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These teams regularly put on a show when they meet in domestic fixtures. Five of the previous six meetings between Man City and Newcastle have provided four or more goals. Three of City’s last four EPL games have hit over 3.5, and with Newcastle’s recent drop in form, the home side can find a way to win in another high-scoring affair with the Magpies.  

  • Confidence Rating: 3/5

Manchester United Moneyline

Soccer Pick: Manchester United ML (+180) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Manchester United ML (+180)
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Manchester United has been flying high in recent months. Lifting the EFL Cup, defeating Barcelona in the Europa League, and positioning themselves in the title chase with Man City and Arsenal have lifted spirits in the Red Devil camp to new heights. They possess the tools to upset the home side this weekend, who lost 5-2 to Real Madrid and drew blanks versus Crystal Place (0-0) in recent outings.   

  • Confidence Rating: 2.5/5   

Manchester City vs. Newcastle United Information  

  • When: Saturday, March 4, 2023 – 07:30 AM EST
  • Where: Etihad Stadium  
  • Moneyline Probability: Man City – 68.2% (-214) vs. Newcastle – 21.2% (+372)  
  • Totals Probability: Over 3 Goals – Over 48.3% (+107), Under 3 Goals – 55.6% (-125)   

Manchester City vs. Newcastle Utd Stats, Odds, & Prediction  

  • Five of the previous six games between these two have ended with 4 or more goals  
  • Man City has won 13 consecutive home games versus Newcastle 
  • Man City is unbeaten in 7 straight EPL meetings   

Positivity Dwindles in the Newcastle Camp     

For the first time in over two decades, Newcastle fans were ecstatic with the opportunity to put a piece of silverware in the trophy cabinet. Unfortunately, Manchester United reigned supreme with a 2-0 victory in the EFL Cup final. With a return game versus the defending Premier League champions, it could be challenging for Newcastle manager Eddie Howe to pick up the pieces.  

In addition to their commiserating cup loss, Newcastle’s domestic form has dropped in 2023. Since clubs and players returned to action following the World Cup competition, the Magpies have won just 1 of their previous 7 games, with a mere three goals netted during this stretch.  

Manchester City revived their league title chase when defeating league leaders Arsenal 3-1 last month. However, the title race festivities didn’t last long as they followed up with a 1-1 draw against EPL strugglers Nottingham Forest.  

That said, all is not lost. Pep Guardiola’s men bounced back with a 4-1 success over Bournemouth last weekend and remained the division’s most proficient goal scorers behind 64 goals this term. They haven’t been as impressive in defense, but with the home support in favor this weekend, capitalizing on the weakened confidence of Newcastle delivers the potential for another three points.  

Man City & Over 1.5 (-154): The Betting Pick Formula  

The Premier League odds have the home side as -250 favorites on the moneyline. City is five points behind Arsenal from the EPL summit and cannot afford to drop any more points. The reverse fixture at St. James Park delivered a thrilling 3-3 encounter, and we should expect goals again.  

Although, this time, we can’t believe Newcastle’s goal-scoring ability to match three scored again. They’ve dried up in their attacking efforts, thus giving Man City an edge and a greater probability to walk away from another goal fest, but this time, with a win.  

Score Prediction: Man City 2 – Newcastle 1 

Soccer Pick: Manchester City ML & Over 1.5 (-154) at Everygame

Liverpool vs. Manchester United Information  

  • When: Sunday, March 5, 2023 – 11:30 AM EST
  • Where: Anfield   
  • Moneyline Probability: Liverpool – 40.5% (+147) vs. Man Utd – 35.7% (+180)  
  • Totals Probability: Over 2.5 Goals – Over 54.5% (-120), Under 2.5 Goals – 49% (+104)   

Liverpool vs. Manchester United Analysis, Odds, & Prediction  

  • Liverpool has seen under 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 5 games in all competitions  
  • Manchester Utd are unbeaten in 19 of their last 22 games in all competitions   

Two In-Form Teams With Glaring Similarities    

Ten points separate Liverpool and Manchester United in the EPL standings as the Red Devils continue their efforts to be mixed in the title race with Man City and Arsenal. However, despite this point discrepancy, the Reds and Man Utd have conceded the same amount of goals in domestic action this term (28) and have both won 3, drawn 1, and lost 1 in their last five encounters.  

With that said, Liverpool’s 5-2 hammering at the hands of Real Madrid in recent UCL action, to then draw with Crystal Place (0-0), cannot be matched with United’s EFL Cup win and 0-2 win away at Leeds. Momentum will undoubtedly side with Erik ten Hag. Although Liverpool bounced back with a 2-0 win over Wolverhampton last time out, defending the Anfield fortress may prove difficult versus a vibrant and confident United squad.  

Liverpool fans will be relieved their team has lifted themselves from the middle of the table, but we must face facts, they haven’t looked like the goal-scoring threat of past seasons, and a few more disappointing results are likely to surface before the season’s end.  

The Red Devils have netted 12 times in their previous 5 games in all competitions; they’ve lifted the EFL Cup in a shutout victory over Newcastle and overcame Spanish giants Barcelona in the Europa League. Should a team take three points at Anfield, all signs point towards the visitors having a greater chance of achieving this.  

Man Utd Moneyline (+180): The Betting Pick Formula  

The Premier League moneyline odds are providing plus money on either side, with the home side in a slightly favorable position. However, given their recent cup win, we can rely on confidence in front of the goal to favor United in their Sunday main event EPL meeting.  

Liverpool has failed to score at home in the EPL just once in their last 11 games, and United rarely boasts a clean sheet versus high-profile teams. However, in what we expect to be a tight 90 minutes, the Red Devils can edge this out in their quest to cover ground on rivals Man City in the table.  

Score Prediction: Liverpool 1 – Man Utd 2

Soccer Pick: Manchester United ML (+180) at BetOnline

Matchday 26 Premier League Quickfire Betting Picks 

Chelsea vs. Leeds Best Bet

Soccer Pick: Both Teams to Score – No (-115) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

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Both Teams to Score – No (-115)
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Chelsea’s unattractive season continues as they’ll welcome Leeds to Stamford Bridge with just 1 win from their last 10 games in all competitions. Leeds is struggling with a relegation battle but has still scored more goals than their weekend opponents this term.  

However, goal-scoring isn’t expected this weekend. Chelsea has found the net on a miserable 23 occasions from 25 EPL games this term, and the under 2.5 goals have landed in 8 of their last 10 games in all competitions. Both teams have failed to score in 6 of Chelsea’s last 7 and four consecutive Leeds United games.  

Confidence Rating: 4/5   

*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.