Brazil vs. Croatia World Cup Quarter Finals Best Bets: Croatian Fatigue Could be Their Downfall

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Croatia's midfielder #10 Luka Modric leaves the pitch after being substituted during the Qatar 2022 World Cup round of 16 football match between Japan and Croatia at the Al-Janoub Stadium in Al-Wakrah, south of Doha on December 5, 2022. (Photo by Anne-Christine POUJOULAT / AFP)

Pre-tournament favorites Brazil come into this quarter-finals matchup against the 2018 World Cup runners-up Croatia as -590 favorites just to qualify and as low as -280 to win in regulation.  

Both teams come into this game with completely different contrasts as Brazil swept South Korea 4-1 in their previous game whilst Croatia was taken to penalties by Japan, eventually winning 3-1 during the penalty shootout.  

The Samba stars will be full of confidence no doubt, whilst Croatia relishes the underdog’s tag. Let’s make some World Cup picks.  

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Brazil vs. Croatia  

Friday, December 9, 2022 – 10:00 AM EST at Education City Stadium 


It’s been a relatively easy campaign for the Brazilians thus far, with their only losing match in the group stage coming when they played their backup team, and even at that, they didn’t lose until virtually the last kick of the game.  

Brazil has scored 7 goals in total and allowed 2 up until now and has totaled an average of 7.5 shots on target per game, which is the second-highest in the World Cup and the highest of any remaining team in the competition.  

Brazil and Croatia have met four times in the previous 20 years, but only two of those on a competitive scale, both in World Cup group stages with the Brazilians winning on both occasions 3-1 and 1-0.  

The only “flaw” Brazil might encounter is that all five of their World Cup exits in the previous 30 years came at the hands of a European nation but given the fact they were 4-0 up at halftime over South Korea and slipped into second gear in the second half, compared to Croatia going all the way penalties, they will be very confident they have the stamina and ability to advance into the Semi-Finals.  


FIFA-ranked-12th, Croatia come into this game as big underdogs as they are priced up with the World Cup betting sportsbooks at +800 to win in regulation and +400 just to qualify.  

Croatia come into this matchup having allowed just 0.5 goals per game, a very solid team defensively, but they are yet to face any “top” teams, one may argue they faced Belgium but in our opinion, Belgium is no longer a top team. Their 0-0 tie on matchday one against Morocco looks to be a solid result considering the African team just knocked out Spain and is in the quarter-finals themselves.  

Croatia has made their third quarterfinals appearance in a row and on the previous two occasions they advanced to the Semis. Just like Belgium, it seems Croatia’s “Golden Generation” may be on the way out and this could be the last time we see them in the quarter-finals for a number of years.  

Pick and Prediction  

Match Result  

No doubt Croatia will be a tough nut to crack, they have not lost in 19 games in a row, with 13 wins and 6 ties. That said we struggle to see them creating many goalscoring opportunities against Brazil and the Brazilians will be looking to tire this Croatian team out knowing they went all the way to penalties last time out.  

We are expecting a tight game here, Brazil won't enjoy the same runaway success as they did against South Korea. We are siding with the Brazilians to just about get the job done in 90 minutes and believe there to be some really nice value with Brazil winning and under 3.5 goals for plus money at +105 World Cup odds.  

Of course, we also like Brazil and under 2.5 goals at +240 but we are going to play it a little safer and take the under 3.5 line just in case.  

Essentially, we believe if Croatia is going to advance here it will be through another penalty shootout, which you could hedge your bet on as Croatia is a huge +1900 to win on penalty kicks.  

Raphinha Shots on Target 

The value on Raphinha to see 2+ shots on target seems too good to be true at odds of +300, he has averaged 2.1 thus far in this World Cup and is a regular starter in this Brazilian team (although we do advise waiting to see the line up before placing this bet). 

Amazingly he is on +220 to score anytime, yet +300 to see 2 or more shots on target, these odds don’t match up and we are more than happy to get on the Brazilian forward to have some shots on target, especially considering that Croatia will be occupied with Richarlison and Neymar Jr.  

Predicted Score: Croatia 0 - Brazil 2  

World Cup Pick: Brazil Wins + Under 3.5 (+105) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Brazil Wins + Under 3.5 (+105)
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World Cup Pick: Raphinha Over 1.5 Shots on Target (+300) at the Top World Cup Sportsbooks  

*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.