How to Bet on Democrat and Republican Electoral College Results 

What makes the United States different from everyone else? Quite a few things, including this: America is the only democratic country that still uses an electoral college to select their leader. Everyone else, from Spain to South Africa, has moved on to direct elections.

Don’t expect the U.S. to do the same anytime soon. This is a country that steadfastly refuses to adopt the metric system, or even stop minting pennies. The U.S. Electoral College will remain because that’s the way certain people like it, even if 65% of Americans surveyed told Pew Research last summer that they wanted the popular vote to decide who’s President.

Besides, what would U.S. election betting be without the Race to 270? In what appears to be a toss-up for the 2024 election, the fine folks at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review) have assigned Kamala Harris and the Democratic Party a total of 269.5 electoral votes, with the Over and Under each priced at –110 on the politics odds board as we go to press.

Switching things up a bit, BetOnline has given Donald Trump and the Republican Party a higher total of 311.5 electoral votes – but with the Under priced at -800 and the Over at +425. Is there more betting value in tackling either side of the Republican total than you’ll find with the Dems? And how does all this work anyway? Let’s start digging.

What Is the Electoral College?

The U.S. Electoral College is a group of 538 state appointees (thus the name of Nate Silver’s former website) that determines who will become President and Vice President. A simple majority of 270 electoral votes or more is required for victory.

The Electoral College was established in Article II, Section 1, Clause 3 of the U.S. Constitution, with all the procedures laid out; the 12th Amendment in 1804 closed some loopholes so that the President and Vice President wouldn’t be political opponents, like John Adams (Federalist) and Thomas Jefferson (Democratic-Republican) in 1796 and 1800.

There have been other attempts to change the Electoral College. Over 700 proposals have been introduced to Congress since 1800, more than for any other part of the Constitution. But most of the change – and chaos– over the years has come at the state level and how they choose their electors, something that was originally done at the district level.

Will the Electoral College Help Trump?

The fact that the Electoral College exists already helped Trump win the 2016 election with 46.1% of the popular vote to Hillary Clinton’s 48.2%. But that wasn’t the only assistance Trump received; the electors themselves were pressured by both sides to ignore the popular vote, and on December 19, five “faithless” electors voted against Clinton, compared to just two against Trump. Another three electors tried to vote against Clinton but were blocked from doing so.

In a way, it didn’t matter, as Trump and the Republicans won the electoral vote by a fairly wide margin of 304-227. But if you look at the 2024 U.S. electoral map and the way things stand in the polls, Harris and the Dems could land at exactly 270 votes if their “blue wall” holds up in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, while Trump sweeps the more southern swing states in Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona and Nevada. It would only take one faithless elector to balance the scales in this scenario at 269 apiece – and two to give Trump the win.

Here’s the thing: There were zero faithless electors in 2020. Joe Biden and the Dems won 306-232; the Republicans instead tried to field a slate of “alternate electors,” which didn’t succeed. Neither did several other GOP attempts to game the 2020 election through the courts.

Who Should I Bet On?

With the rules the U.S. has in place today, it would take an even larger and more cohesive effort for Trump and the Republicans to sway the Electoral College in their favor. So from a politics betting perspective, Harris and the Dems remain a value pick to go Over 269.5 votes in this GOP-leaning market.

Politics Pick: Democratic Party Over 269.5 Votes (-110) at BetOnline

Democratic Party Over 269.5 Votes (-110)

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As for the GOP itself, they would need to sweep all three of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania to reach exactly 312 electoral votes. Here are the state presidential betting odds at BetOnline for the Republicans in all seven swing states at press time:

Turn those American odds into implied probabilities, multiply them together, turn them back into American odds, and you get… almost exactly +9000 for Trump and the Republicans to sweep all seven. We’ll put the Under in our U.S. election picks, thank you kindly.

Politics Pick: Republican Party Under 311.5 Votes (-800) at BetOnline

Republican Party Under 311.5 Votes (-800)

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.