XFL Week 5 Best Bets: Who Starts 5-0?

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Luis Perez #12 of the Vegas Vipers looks to pass against the Arlington Renegades on February 18, 2023. Sam Hodde/Getty Images/AFP.

XFL Pick: Guardians/Vipers – Vipers -7.5 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

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Picks Summary:

  • Defenders/Battlehawks – Defenders -1 First-Half Spread (-110)
  • Roughnecks/Sea Dragons – First Half Over 20.5 Points (-110)
  • Guardians/Vipers – Vipers -7.5 (-110)
  • Renegades/Brahmas – Under 35.5 (-110)

The Week 5 XFL slate has lined up nicely with the first two games of the week featuring a team trying to get to 5-0. However, the Houston Roughnecks and DC Defenders are facing arguably their toughest challenge of the season yet on the road in those games.

On Saturday night, we should finally see one of the Orlando Guardians and Vegas Vipers get a win as both are 0-4. On Sunday night, the Brahmas host the Renegades to close out the Week 5 action.

We are making our top pick in all four games. You will find XFL betting markets at many of the best sportsbooks.

Houston Roughnecks vs. Seattle Sea Dragons

Thursday, March 16, 2023 – 10:30 PM EDT at Lumen Field

Houston is a 3.5-point road favorite this Thursday night in Seattle with a total of 42.5 points. We are focusing on the first half Over (20.5 points).

The Roughnecks have been a great first-half team through four weeks, jumping out to big early leads and letting Wade Phillips call an aggressive defense that has collected more sacks (17) and interceptions (5) than any defense in the XFL.

Check out what Houston has done in the first half this season:

  • Week 1: Houston led 21-6 at halftime before winning 33-12.
  • Week 2: Houston trialed 14-11 at halftime before winning 23-14.
  • Week 3: Houston led 22-7 at halftime before winning 22-13.
  • Week 4: Houston led 26-10 at halftime before winning 44-16.

What do we see in all four games? There were at least 25 points scored by halftime, and Houston itself scored over 20.5 in 3-of-4 games. What we do not see in all four games is the final going Over 42 points as half the games finished Under 37.5 points.

The Pick

That is why we think the first half Over is the best value pick in this game. Beyond Houston’s excellent, Seattle is a competent offense that throws the ball more than any team with Ben DiNucci at quarterback. The Sea Dragons also still have the leading rusher and top two leading receivers in yards through Week 4, so this should be a good offensive game.

For Houston residents looking to bet on this game, you can do it at our top Texas betting sites.

XFL Pick: First Half Over 20.5 Points (-110) at Bovada

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DC Defenders vs. St. Louis Battlehawks

Saturday, March 18, 2023 – 07:00 PM EDT at The Dome at America’s Center

The Defenders (4-0) are a 2-point road favorite with a total of 42.5 points. St. Louis (3-1) should put up a good fight behind quarterback AJ McCarron in this one at home.

What we have here is a DC team that is dominating the running game perhaps more than any offensive or defensive unit dominating anything in the XFL so far. The Defenders (622 yards) have 244 more yards on the ground than the Sea Dragons (378), the No. 2 rushing team in the XFL.

The Defenders are not shabby when they throw the ball either as they pick up a first down on 33.3% of their passes, the best rate in the XFL. The BattleHawks have 5.0 sacks on defense, the fewest in the league.

The Pick

The Defenders have the better running game and defense. The Battlehawks are a team that has been leaning on second-half magic from McCarron to come back on teams. This is why we like the first-half spread going the Defenders’ way as our best bet for your XFL picks.

XFL Pick: Defenders -1 First-Half Spread (-110) at Bovada

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Orlando Guardians vs. Vegas Vipers

Saturday, March 18, 2023 – 10:00 PM EDT at Cashman Field

Both teams are 0-4 but the Vegas Vipers are still a 7.5-point home favorite over Orlando with a total of 42 points.

The Vipers have been a little better than their record suggests while Orlando has been the worst team overall in the XFL. Orlando has already lost three games by 18-plus points. The Vipers have had some good starts to games only to fade after halftime.

But we are going with the chalk pick of having the Vipers cover and add to Orlando’s misery with bad losses. Vegas throws the ball too well to remain winless against the worst team in the league (and while playing at home). The Vipers are No. 2 in passing first down rate (33.1%) and yards per attempt (7.0). This team should have a win by now, but they blew the Week 1 game to Arlington with two pick-sixes.

The Pick

Orlando has not scored more than 16 points in any game this season. It is just too hard to trust this team to keep it close enough with an offense that moves the ball decently. Following the XFL odds, back the Vipers at -7.5.

XFL Pick: Vipers -7.5 (-110) at Bovada

Arlington Renegades vs. San Antonio Brahmas

Sunday, March 19, 2023 – 09:00 PM EDT at Alamodome

The final game this week is in San Antonio Sunday night with the Brahmas favored by 2.5 points with a total of 35.5 points, the lowest game this week by a touchdown.

Maybe the low total is a trap, but we cannot deny that these two teams are abysmal offenses:

  • The Renegades (4.7) and Brahmas (4.8) are the only offenses averaging under 5.5 yards per pass attempt this season.
  • The Renegades (2.6) and Brahmas (3.1) are the only offenses averaging under 3.5 yards per rush this season.
  • The Brahmas (3) and Renegades (4) have the fewest 20-yard pass plays this season while every other team has at least 6 such plays.
  • The Renegades have thrown the most interceptions (5) and scored the fewest touchdowns (4).

This might be fine if the defenses were both terrible, but that is not exactly the case. Still, both teams are held back by brutal offenses. Oddly enough, the Brahmas have had 4 1-point conversions while the rest of the XFL have 5 such plays combined. The only other team with multiple such scoring plays is Arlington (2). The Brahmas have not converted a 2-point or 3-point conversion yet.

The Pick

With both teams somehow in the bottom two for yards per pass and yards per rush, this just feels like one of the lowest-scoring games of the season.

XFL Pick: Under 35.5 (-110) at Bovada

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.