XFL Pick: Roughnecks vs. Guardians – Under 38 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
Picks Summary:
- Roughnecks vs. Guardians -Under 38 (-110)
- Brahmas vs. Sea Dragons – Over 40.5 (-110)
- BattleHawks -4 (-110)
- Vipers +6 (-110)
The Week 4 XFL slate starts with the first rematch of the season, and it ends with the second as the DC Defenders try to improve to 4-0 against the Vegas Vipers, who are still winless.
There are two games on both Saturday and Sunday. We are looking at our top pick in all four games based on XFL odds.
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Vegas Vipers vs. DC Defenders
Sunday, March 12, 2023 – 07:00 PM EST at Audi Field
The DC Defenders are a 6-point home favorite as they try to move to 4-0, which would make the Vegas Vipers 0-4. The total is 42 points, the highest game this week.
The Defenders have not been as impressive as Houston in starting 3-0. The Defenders had that 18-6 win in Vegas in Week 2, but that was played on a poor, wet field. The other games have not been wins where the Defenders would have covered a spread this large.
There is also the fact that DC is not that much better than the Vipers on a per-play basis, and some of these numbers are skewed by their rushing success on the rainy field in Week 2:
- Passing: The Defenders are No. 2 in first down rate (30.4%), The Vipers are No. 3 (29.9%)
- Rushing: The Defenders are No. 4 in rushing yards per carry (3.9), and the Vipers are No. 5 (3.6).
Bad field aside, the Vipers have two losses by a combined 6 points. So far, 7-of-12 XFL games have been decided by fewer than 7 points.
With a better field expected this week, take the underdog to cover the spread.
XFL Pick: Vipers +6 (-110) at Bovada
Arlington Renegades vs. St. Louis Battlehawks
Sunday, March 12, 2023 – 04:00 PM EST at The Dome at America’s Center
The Battlehawks (2-1) are a 4-point home favorite over the Renegades (2-1) with a total of 36.5 points.
St. Louis is a fun, competitive team, but the preseason hype as a championship team may have been a little too reliant on quarterback A.J. McCarron’s past success. He has been solid for the team, but he was unable to work enough magic in the fourth quarter again in Week 3. The Battlehawks dug too big of a hole this time, and McCarron was sacked on a fourth-and-15 when trying to get the ball back in a 34-28 loss.
But Arlington is a great draw because this is the worst offense in the XFL with 3 total offensive touchdowns so far. Every other team has at least 5 such touchdowns. Worse, it does not matter how the Renegades try to move the ball, they rank dead last in yards per pass (4.7) and yards per rush (2.5).
McCarron is completing 63.5% of his passes, which is second in the XFL, and he is one of three quarterbacks with a league-high 7 touchdown passes. Look for his experience to matter in this home game as St. Louis should finally get a win that does not go down to the final second.
XFL Pick: Battlehawks -4 (-110) at Bovada
Houston Roughnecks vs. Orlando Guardians
Saturday, March 11, 2023 – 07:00 PM EST at Camping World Stadium
The Roughnecks are a big 9-point road favorite against the Guardians with a total for this matchup currently at 38 points. It was 33-12 in Week 1 when Houston beat Orlando.
The Guardians are averaging 11 points per game, but at least they held the Renegades to 10 points in last week’s 10-9 loss, the first time Orlando was not blown out by double digits this year.
Meanwhile, Houston failed to score in the second half of its 22-13 win over San Antonio despite some solid numbers from quarterback Brandon Silvers. He threw a couple of touchdowns and interceptions in the Week 1 win over Orlando that was really fueled by a defense with 7 sacks and 3 interceptions.
We can feel pretty confident that the defense is going to be good again in this matchup, though at least quarterback Paxton Lynch did not throw a pick for Orlando last week. He did however take 4 more sacks and the running game has just not been there yet for the Guardians.
But after that big Week 1, Houston has only scored 23 and 22 points in the last two games. With Orlando maxing out at 12 points this year, this feels like a game that could end 24-12 or so, leading to another cover but also an under for Houston.
XFL Pick: Under 38 (-110) at Bovada
San Antonio Brahmas vs. Seattle Sea Dragons
Saturday, March 11, 2023 – 10:00 PM EST at Lumen Field
Seattle is a 4.5-point home favorite with a total of 40.5 points.
Seattle finally got its first win with a 30-26 comeback against the Vipers. It was none other than Josh Gordon coming through on a fourth-and-2 with a long touchdown in the final minute to win the game.
The Sea Dragons now have the XFL’s leading passer, rusher, and top two receivers in yards through Week 3. This team throws the ball more than anyone behind Ben DiNucci, and remarkably he has only taken 3 sacks as this line seems to have held up better than most around the league.
San Antonio had a rough time with Houston’s tough defense last week, but things should pick up here. Seattle’s defense is dead last with 13 tackles for loss, tied for last with 4.0 sacks, and tied for last with 1 interception, and the Sea Dragons have yet to recover a fumble.
With Seattle’s offensive production and lack of defensive stops, we think the over has the best value in this matchup.
XFL Pick: Over 40.5 (-110) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
