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2024 Presidential Election Betting Odds: Biden & Trump Clinch Presidential Nominations

Once, twice and three times the GOP’s presumptive presidential nominee. After winning the primaries in Georgia, Hawaii, Mississippi and Washington on Tuesday night, former President Donald Trump crossed the required threshold of 1,215 delegates. Meanwhile, incumbent President Joe Biden notched his second presidential nomination for the Democratic Party after securing a total of 3,933 delegates.

2024 U.S. Presidential Election Odds

Is Election betting Legal in the U.S.?

While it is not illegal for U.S. bettors to wager on the Presidential election, election betting odds are only available at offshore sportsbooks.

Why don’t sites like FanDuel and DraftKings accept election bets?

In the United States, the landscape of election betting is fraught with regulatory hurdles and moral debates. The prohibition on election betting stems from a combination of historical disdain for gambling, concerns about the integrity of the electoral process, and regulatory frameworks that perceive such betting as akin to speculative gambling rather than a legitimate form of prediction. 

The Rise & Fall of U.S. Election Trading on PredictIt

PredictIt, a platform founded by John Aristotle Phillips, sought to navigate this complex terrain by offering a space where individuals could buy and sell futures contracts tied to political events. Initially endorsed as an academic exercise by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (C.F.T.C.), PredictIt flourished, attracting tens of thousands of users and facilitating millions of dollars in trades.

However, despite its popularity and demonstrated predictive accuracy, PredictIt faced opposition from regulators who viewed election markets as potentially destabilizing to the democratic process. In a surprising turn of events, the C.F.T.C. abruptly revoked its approval for PredictIt in August of 2022, citing violations of the original agreement terms. This decision left PredictIt scrambling to close existing markets and sparked a legal battle between the company and regulators.

The emergence of startups like Kalshi, which sought C.F.T.C. approval to offer election-related contracts, highlighted ongoing debates about the future of election betting in the U.S. Kalshi’s request, if approved, could pave the way for regulated election markets, offering higher investment limits and broader market offerings.

Will the U.S. Allow Regulated Sportsbooks to Offer Election Betting?

The outlook for legalized election betting in the U.S. remains uncertain. While proponents argue that prediction markets provide valuable insights and engagement in the political process, opponents raise concerns about potential manipulation, moral hazards, and the commodification of democracy. Offshore sportsbooks have capitalized on these regulatory roadblocks and have given players what they want — the ability to bet on the Election winner, plus a multitude of related prop bets.

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Best Election Betting Sites

When looking to bet on election outcomes, choosing the right platform is essential. Here are some of the top betting sites known for their reliable odds, user-friendly interfaces and comprehensive coverage of political events.

Each of these sites provides a unique betting experience with a focus on election betting. Whether you’re new to betting or a seasoned pro, these platforms offer the tools and odds needed to make informed decisions on election outcomes. Remember to bet responsibly and consider the legalities of online betting in your jurisdiction.

  1. BetOnline – This site stands out for its early election odds and a variety of betting options. BetOnline is a go-to for those looking to place bets on elections well in advance, offering insights into future political contests.
  2. Bovada – A leading name in online betting, Bovada offers competitive presidential election odds and a wide range of political events to bet on. It’s known for its easy-to-navigate website and quick payout options.
  3. BookMaker – Top for early lines and a deep selection of wagering markets for the upcoming 2024 Presidential Election.
  4. Heritage Sports – Heritage Sports is praised for its excellent customer service and attractive odds for election betting. It provides a seamless betting experience with a focus on user satisfaction.
  5. BetAnySports – With its diverse betting options, BetAnySports offers more than just sports betting, including a robust section for political betting. Its competitive odds on elections make it a popular choice among bettors.
  6. Everygame – Formerly known as Intertops, Everygame has a long-standing reputation in the betting community. It offers comprehensive betting options for various political events, including U.S. presidential elections, with updated odds and detailed analysis.

Key Election Betting Points

 Former President Donald Trump has led incumbent President Joe Biden as the favorite to win the presidency for the past year. The former Commander-in-Chief’s odds are currently priced at -120, implying a win probability of 54.55%.

 Nikki Haley dropped out of the race after a huge loss on Super Tuesday. The former UN Ambassador posed the only threat to Trump which means that he should get the Republican nomination barring any legal issues.

 The odds for Michelle Obama have improve in the last couple of weeks despite her declining to contest Biden for the nomination. Currently, she sits at +1800 after being priced at +5000 at the start of 2024. The Governor of California, Gavin Newsom was previously considered a dark horse given Biden’s health issues but the Democrat has voiced his support for Biden.

 The electoral college is a voting system that dates back to 1776 and divides the country into 538 electors. It’s vital in the election process.

 Swing states are territories where constituents have not historically shown any particular preference for candidates from either party. In any given election they can “swing” in favor of one and determine the outcome of the election.

Trump: Odds-On Favorite

Donald Trump

According to the top sportsbooks, Trump is the odds-on favorite with prices ranging from -110 at shops like Bovada (visit our Bovada Review) to -120 at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review). Trump has a strong grip on the Republican base, however, the former Commander-in-Chief has to find a way to attract the more moderate voters, who were crucial to getting Biden elected back in 2020.

Despite facing legal challenges and enduring a second impeachment hearing, Donald Trump’s support remains steady. With four indictments by federal court and 91 charges in alleged crimes, the impact of these cases on the election results remains uncertain. Given the likely delay in resolution until after the election, they may not significantly affect the outcome.

The lack of legal precedent preventing a convicted felon from running for president adds complexity to Trump’s situation. If re-elected in 2024, his administration could potentially dismiss the ongoing legal cases, preventing them from becoming a moral and political quagmire.

Despite recently losing his E. Jean Carroll defamation trial, Trump announced he would appeal and it seems things are looking brighter for him on the legal front after the Supreme Court ruled in early March that his name couldn’t be taken off the ballot in the state of Colorado.

As the political landscape unfolds, and candidates position themselves for the 2024 elections. The odds and dynamics of the race are certain to evolve, shaping the future of American politics as the nation eagerly anticipates this political spectacle.

Joe Biden Trails in Polls & Odds

President Biden Meets With Poland's President And Prime Minister At The White House

Commander-in-Chief Joe Biden trails Donald Trump in most national polls, and this has been reflected in the current odds offered by online sportsbooks.

Joe Biden is currently trading at anywhere from -110 to +220, which carries an implied probability from 52.38% to 31.25%. Biden’s odds fluctuate based on if a sportsbook is accepting wagers on other candidates, such as the possibility of California Governor Gavin Newsom being called on to run in the 81-year-old POTUS’ stead.

Biden recently delivered a controversial State of the Union address that was considered to be something of a campaign ad by BMR Forum community members and political onlookers.

Presumptive Nominees: Biden and Trump ​

While it’s no surprise that we are headed towards a Biden-Trump rematch after Tuesday’s results, what caught the attention of many pundits is the fact that the incumbent President saw his US presidential election betting odds improve by about 20 cents at most of the top-rated offshore sportsbooks

However, it is worth noting that since the 2024 State of the Union address, which featured an amped-up Biden, his odds have improved by about 50 cents. Biden will now be officially named the party’s nominee at the Democratic National Convention, which will take place this August in Chicago.

Shifting Dynamics: Kennedy’s Independent Run

Since every sequel needs a plot twist, the 2024 US presidential elections will feature a new character as Robert Kennedy Jr. refuses to go out quietly. The long-time Democrat also made the headlines on Tuesday after The New York Times reported that his shortlist for running mate includes Jets QB Aaron Rodgers. 

His run as an independent poses intriguing questions: who will he endorse, and how might he impact swing states? While victory seems improbable, his role in the election remains significant.

Battleground States: The Key to Victory in the Presidential Elections

As with previous elections, attention turns to key battleground states, which have historically played a decisive role in determining the outcome. The Rust Belt region, comprising states like Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, swung in favor of Trump in 2016 and then shifted to Biden in 2020.

Understanding the significance of these states is crucial for predicting the 2024 outcome. In 2016, Trump won Wisconsin, which voted Republican for the first time since 1984, along with Michigan and Pennsylvania. In 2020, Biden reclaimed these states, securing 46 electoral votes and contributing significantly to his overall victory.

2024 US Presidential Election Calendar - Key Dates

November 5, 2024

General Election Day. Across all 50 states and territories in the United States, voters will cast their ballots to elect the new President of the United States.

October 9, 2024

The last scheduled presidential debate is set to occur at the University of Utah in Salt Lake City, Utah.

October 1, 2024

The second presidential debate is scheduled to take place live at Virginia State University in Petersburg, Virginia.

September 25, 2024

The sole vice presidential debate will be held at Lafayette College in Easton, Pennsylvania.

September 16, 2024

The first presidential debate will be held at Texas State University in San Marcos, Texas.

September 10, 2024

Delaware, New Hampshire, and Rhode Island will see elections for various offices.

September 3, 2024

Massachusetts will hold elections for Senate and House races.

August 27, 2024

If no candidate secures a majority of votes in June, Oklahoma may see a runoff.

August 20, 2024

Alaska, Florida, and Wyoming will hold elections for various offices.

August 19-22, 2024

The Democratic National Convention will be held at the United Center in Chicago, Illinois, where candidates for President and Vice President will be selected.

August 13, 2024

Connecticut, Minnesota, South Dakota, Vermont, and Wisconsin will hold various races.

August 10, 2024

Hawaii will conduct elections for Senate and House seats.

August 6, 2024

Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, and Washington will have various races on the ballot.

August 1, 2024

Tennessee will see elections for Senate and House candidates.

July 30, 2024

Arizona will hold elections for Senate and House candidates.

July 15-18, 2024

The Republican National Convention will take place at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, where candidates for President and Vice President will be selected.

June 25, 2024

Elections in four states. Colorado, New York, South Carolina (Primary Runoff), and Utah will hold votes for various races.

June 18, 2024

Elections in three states. Georgia (State Primary Runoff), Oklahoma, and Virginia will have different races on the ballot.

June 11, 2024

Elections in four states. Maine, Nevada, North Dakota, and South Carolina will see various races.

June 8, 2024

Democratic Primaries in Guam and the Virgin Islands. Both territories will conduct their Democratic primaries, each offering 7 delegates.

June 4, 2024

Elections in six states. Iowa, the District of Columbia, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota will hold votes for different races.

May 28, 2024

Potential Runoff in Texas. Following the Texas Republican Convention (held May 23-25), a non-presidential primary runoff may occur if no candidate secures a majority.

May 23, 2024

Democratic Caucus in Idaho. Idaho Democrats will convene for their caucus, contending for 23 delegates.

May 21, 2024

Election Day in four states Georgia. Idaho, Kentucky, and Oregon will see various elections, including primaries and House votes.

May 14, 2024

Primaries in three states. Maryland, Nebraska, and West Virginia, including a gubernatorial vote, will hold their primaries.

May 7, 2024

Major Primary Day in Indiana. Indiana braces for a significant primary day, along with votes for Governor, House, and Senate.

April 28, 2024

Democratic Primary in Puerto Rico. Democrats in Puerto Rico will have their say with 55 delegates in play.

April 23, 2024

Primaries in Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania will hold its primary alongside Senate and House votes.

April 21, 2024

Republican Primary in Puerto Rico. Puerto Rico is set for its Republican primary with 23 delegates on the line.

April 16, 2024

Potential Runoff in Alabama. Alabama may see a non-presidential primary runoff if no candidate secures a majority in March’s primary.

April 13, 2024

Democratic Primary in Wyoming. Wyoming Democrats will participate in the primary, contending for 13 delegates.

April 6, 2024

Democratic Primary in Alaska. Alaska Democrats will cast their votes with 15 delegates up for grabs.

April 2, 2024

Primaries and Runoffs Seven states gear up for primaries or non-presidential runoffs, including Arkansas (Non-presidential primary runoff), Connecticut. Delaware, Mississippi (Non-presidential primary runoff). New York. Rhode Island. amd Wisconsin.

March 30, 2024

North Dakota is set for its Democratic primary with 13 delegates in play.

March 23, 2024

Primaries in Southern States Louisiana and Missouri (Democratic only) will host their primaries.

March 19, 2024

Five states head to the polls, offering a total of 350 delegates, including Arizona (Primary), Florida (Primary), Illinois (Primary and House), Kansas (Primary), and Ohio (Primary, Senate, and House).

March 16, 2024

Republican Caucus in Guam. Guam is set to hold its Republican caucus with 9 delegates at stake.

March 15, 2024

Republican Caucus in Northern Mariana Island. The Northern Mariana Islands will host its Republican caucus with 9 delegates up for grabs.

March 12, 2024

Six territories gear up for major voting, including Georgia, Hawaii (Republican only), Mississippi, Northern Mariana Islands (Democratic only), Wahington, and Democrats abroad (13 delegates).

Political Parties in Election Betting

Republican and Democrat logos

In the arena of election betting, understanding the main political parties and their candidates is crucial. Bettors can place wagers on the Republican nominee, Democratic nominee and Independent candidates, each offering unique odds and opportunities.

The Republican Party and the Democratic Party are the two primary forces in U.S. politics, often fielding candidates who become the frontrunners in presidential and congressional races. Betting on the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate involves analyzing their chances of winning based on current national polls, public sentiment and historical election outcomes.

Odds for these candidates can shift dramatically as the election cycle progresses, influenced by debates, public appearances and policy announcements.

Independent candidates provide an interesting variable in election betting. While they typically face longer odds due to the dominance of the two major parties, a surge in support for an Independent candidate can shake up the betting landscape, offering potentially high returns for bettors willing to take the risk.

When placing bets on election parties, it’s important to stay informed about the latest developments in the political scene, including candidate nominations, party platforms, ballot data and key issues driving voter turnout. 

Election Betting FAQs

Yes, it is legal to bet on elections in the United States through offshore sportsbooks. However, domestic sportsbooks are unable to offer betting on elections due to local gambling laws.

Current betting odds favor Donald Trump as the favorite to win the next presidential election.

Governor Ron DeSantis suspended his campaign for president in January and endorsed former President Donald J. Trump.

Donald Trump is a member of the Republican party and is currently the GOP’s presumptive presidential nominee.

No, every incumbent president since 1972 has secured the nomination of their political party.

A swing state is a U.S. state where both Democrats and Republicans have similar supporter bases within the population. Often, these states are the ones that swing an election one way or the other.

The Electoral College is a mechanism established by the U.S. Constitution for electing the president and vice president. It consists of electors from each state, proportional to its Congressional representation.

In the United States, there are two major political parties: the Democratic Party and the Republican Party. However, there are numerous smaller parties, often referred to as third parties, such as the Libertarian Party, Green Party, Constitution Party and others.

There are five basic requirements that every candidate must meet in order to be eligible for presidency. Candidates must be at least 35 and are required to be natural born citizens of the U.S.. They also must have spent at least 14 years in the country and not have already served two terms in office.

What are election betting odds?

Understanding how to read election betting odds is key for anyone looking to place a bet on political outcomes. Odds can seem complex at first, but they’re actually pretty straightforward once you get the hang of them. Here’s a simple guide to help you understand what the numbers mean:

  • Positive Odds (+): These indicate how much profit you would earn on a $100 bet if your prediction is correct. For example, odds of +200 mean you would win $200 on a $100 bet.
  • Negative Odds (-): These show how much you need to bet to win $100. For instance, odds of -150 mean you need to bet $150 to win $100.
  • Fractional Odds: Sometimes, odds are presented as fractions (e.g., 3/1). This means you win $3 for every $1 you bet, plus your original $1 back if your bet wins.
  • Decimal Odds: Decimal odds show the total amount you would get back for every $1 bet, including your original bet. So, odds of 4.00 mean you get $4 back for every $1 bet if you win.

Tips for Reading Odds

  • Betting Favorites vs. Underdogs: Negative odds usually indicate the favorite or the outcome considered more likely. Positive odds indicate the underdog or less likely outcome.
  • Compare Odds: Look at different sportsbooks to see where you can find the best odds for your bet. Small differences can mean more profit.
  • Watch for Changes: The president odds change as the election approaches, based on new information, primary polls and public opinion. Keeping an eye on how the odds shift can give you insights into public sentiment and potential election outcomes.
  • Understand the Context: Always consider the political context and recent news when interpreting odds. They reflect not just the current standings but also public perception and betting trends.

Reading election betting odds doesn’t have to be daunting. With a bit of practice, you can quickly learn to interpret these numbers and use them to inform your betting decisions, giving you a better chance at winning your bets.

Types of Election Bets

Betting on elections isn’t just about picking who you think will win. There are several types of bets you can place, each offering a different way to engage with the political landscape and potentially win some money. Here’s a look at the main types of election bets:

  • Winner Bets: The most straightforward type of bet, where you predict who will win a specific election. This can apply to presidential races, congressional seats or any other elected position. You can also bet on the winner of specific parties, such as the winner of the Republican nomination and the Democratic nomination.
  • Margin of Victory Bets: These bets involve predicting not just who will win, but by what margin. For example, you might bet on a candidate to win by more than 5 percentage points.
  • Proposition Bets (Prop Bets): Prop bets are about specific events happening or not happening during an election cycle. Examples include betting on whether a candidate will drop out before a certain date or how many debates will take place.
  • Over/Under Bets: This type involves betting on the total number of something, such as the total electoral votes a candidate will receive and whether it will be over or under a specified amount set by the sportsbook.
  • State-by-State Bets: Particularly in presidential elections, bettors can wager on who will win individual states. This is a way to engage with the election beyond the national outcome.
  • Futures Bets: Futures bets are placed on events that will happen further down the line, such as who will win the next presidential election. These bets can be made years in advance, often with higher odds due to the uncertainty.

Each type of bet offers a different level of engagement and analysis, from simple predictions to more detailed analyses of election dynamics.

How to Bet on Elections

Betting on elections involves predicting the outcomes of political events and placing a wager on those predictions. Here’s a straightforward guide on how to get started with election betting:

  1. Choose a Reputable Betting Site: First, select a trustworthy online sportsbook that offers election betting. Look for sites with positive reviews, a wide range of betting options and competitive odds. Offshore sites like Bovada, BetOnline and Heritage Sports are popular choices among bettors.
  1. Create an Account: Once you’ve chosen a site, sign up for an account. You’ll need to provide some basic information and possibly verify your identity. Make sure to take advantage of any sign-up bonuses or promotions.

  2. Deposit Funds: Before you can place a bet, you’ll need to deposit money into your account. Most sites offer various payment methods, including credit cards, e-wallets and cryptocurrencies. Choose the one that’s most convenient for you.

  3. Understand the Odds: Take some time to learn how the odds work. Positive odds (+) indicate the amount you would win on a $100 bet, while negative odds (-) show how much you need to bet to win $100. Odds can give you insights into the favorites and underdogs in any given election.

  4. Place Your Bet: Navigate to the election betting section of the site, find the market you’re interested in and choose your bet. This could be a bet on who will win an election, the margin of victory or other prop bets related to the political event.

  5. Monitor & Adjust: Keep an eye on how the odds change as the election approaches. You might find opportunities to place additional bets or adjust your strategy based on new information or shifting odds.

  6. Withdraw Your Winnings: If your bet wins, you’ll want to withdraw your winnings. Check the site’s policies on withdrawals, as there may be different options and processing times.

Betting on elections can add an extra layer of excitement to following political events. However, it’s important to bet responsibly and only wager what you can afford to lose. By understanding the odds and doing your research, you can make informed decisions and enjoy the world of political betting.

Common Mistakes to Avoid

When betting on elections, it’s easy to fall into a few common traps. Being aware of these mistakes can help you make smarter betting decisions and potentially increase your chances of winning.

  • Betting Based on Personal Bias: One of the biggest pitfalls is letting your personal political preferences influence your bets. It’s important to bet based on objective data and analysis rather than who you hope will win. Look at the odds, historical trends and unbiased political analyses to guide your decisions.
  • Ignoring the Odds: Odds are a reflection of how the betting public and the bookmakers view the likelihood of an event happening. Ignoring them or misunderstanding how they work can lead to poorly placed bets. Take the time to understand what the odds are telling you about each candidate’s chances and whether or not the betting public and oddsmakers have a favorable opinion on their chances of making it to the White House.
  • Failing to Shop for the Best Odds: Not all sportsbooks will offer the same odds on election outcomes. Failing to compare odds across different platforms can mean missing out on better returns. Always check multiple sites to ensure you’re getting the best value for your bet.
  • Overlooking Smaller Markets: While the presidential election gets the most attention, there are often good betting opportunities in smaller races, such as congressional or local elections. These markets might have less information available, making it possible for well-informed bettors to find value.
  • Chasing Losses: As with any form of gambling, it’s crucial to avoid the temptation to chase losses with bigger bets. This can lead to a cycle of losing more money in an attempt to recover previous losses. Set a budget for your betting and stick to it, regardless of wins or losses.
  • Not Staying Updated: Political landscapes can change rapidly, affecting election odds. Not staying up-to-date with the latest news, polls and developments means you might be making bets based on outdated information. Regularly check reliable news sources and adjust your betting strategy accordingly.

By avoiding these common mistakes, you can approach election betting with a clearer strategy, improving your chances of placing successful bets. Remember, informed and measured betting is the key to enjoying and potentially profiting from the election betting market.

Conclusion

Election betting turns political forecasts into opportunities for strategic betting. By understanding odds, making informed choices and avoiding common pitfalls, bettors can engage more deeply with political events. Always bet wisely and stay updated to navigate the dynamic world of election betting successfully.

We invite you to discuss the upcoming election with BMR Forum members in the Political Betting section. Bookmakers Review will continue to monitor the U.S. presidential odds and update this page as the odds change in the coming months ahead of the election in November 2024.

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