Sun vs. Wings WNBA Odds, Preview and Pick

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Natisha Hiedeman #2 of the Connecticut Sun drives against Kelsey Plum #10 of the Las Vegas Aces. Ethan Miller/Getty Images/AFP

The Dallas Wings are in the midst of an ugly three-game skid. Can they avoid a fourth straight loss tonight, at home, against the Connecticut Sun?

Let’s break down the WNBA odds for tonight’s matchup.

Connecticut Sun vs. Dallas Wings

Tuesday, July 05, 2022 – 08:00 PM EDT at College Park Center

Dog Days of July

The WNBA is over halfway through the season and it's about this time of year that we start to see the grind of a long year take its’ toll.

I’d say it is similar to the NBA in late January, right before the All-Star Break. Now, imagine that the NBA players were forced to play overseas to make a reasonable living during the summer AND play 82 games in the NBA season. In other words, we’re at the "dead legs" part of the season and these two teams are prime examples.

Both the Sun and Wings had hot starts to the year and have started to struggle some to different degrees.

Grinding Out Wins

The Sun earned a hard-fought overtime win against the Washington Mystics two days ago to avoid losing four of their last five games. Meanwhile, the Wings started 6-4 SU in their first 10 games and have gone 3-8 SU since.

As I mentioned in our winning play on the Wings and LA Sparks total last week, Satou Sabally is back for the Wings. She is a huge boost but it will take her some time to get back to 100 percent. She came off the bench against the Sparks last week and had six turnovers in 16 minutes. Obviously she’s not going to be playing 30 minutes tonight. She may come off the bench once again.

Betting Analysis

So, with two struggling teams facing one another, what should we do with the current betting odds for this game?

After some great success fading both defenses last Friday in a similar spot, I think the first half over has a solid amount of value once again, even though it probably isn’t quite as good as last Friday.

Connecticut's Defense Is Only Playing Second Halfs

For starters, the first half road defense has been a sore spot for the Sun this season. Connecticut’s defense has been one of the best units in the league overall but, for some reason, they rank in the bottom half of the league when it comes to first half defense on the road.

The Wings have the third-best home offense during first half's, averaging 108 points per 100 possessions and that continued last week against the Sparks, where they dropped 49 points in the first half. The Sun defense is much better than LA’s, but that has not been the case in their last five first halves.

The Sharp Pick

Both of these teams are allowing 110 points per 100 possessions or more in their last five first halves, which ranks them 10th and 11th in the W over that span.

As long as Dallas plays at their preferred pace tonight and doesn’t allow the Sun to slow things down, I could see another first half where the two teams score 85 or more combined points. As we approach the All-Star Break, defense is going to go by the wayside for a little while and we'll bank on that for our betting picks.

WNBA Pick: 1st Half Over 83 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

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1st Half Over 83 (-110)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.