Sun vs. Dream WNBA Picks and In-Depth Analysis

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Guard Tiffany Hayes #15 of the Atlanta Dream draws the foul against guard Moriah Jefferson #4 of the Dallas Wings. Tom Pennington/Getty Images/AFP

A two-game WNBA slate lines the card Friday night and the later game features a battle between the Connecticut Sun and the Atlanta Dream. Can Atlanta cover these WNBA odds as home dogs without one of their best players?

Connecticut Sun vs. Atlanta Dream

Friday, July 15, 2022 – 07:30 PM EDT at Gateway Center

Dream Down Number One Pick

The Dream have been up and down this season but tonight at home against the Sun may be another down game. 

They are more than +7 underdogs at most sportsbooks and it’s likely to do with the fact that rookie number one overall pick Rhyne Howard has been ruled out with a shoulder issue. 

Atlanta's Guard Depth

The Dream’s guard depth has been a source of strength this season but that will certainly be tested tonight against the Sun. Without Howard and her nearly 15 points per game, the Dream will have to lean on newer arrivals Tiffany Hayes and AD Durr, along with veteran Erica Wheeler. 

While they may be able to replace Howard’s scoring some, I doubt they are able to replace all of her scoring and that could spell bad news for the Dream’s overall offensive outlook, especially early in games, 

The Sun defense isn’t what it used to be, but it is good enough to build a lead on the road by the end of the first half. 

However, the Dream being at home and still with plenty of guard depth has me concerned for the Sun and their first half spread WNBA odds. However, the defense in this game - especially early in the game – may be good enough to cash the under here in the first half odds. 

The Sharp Pick

On the road this season, the Sun rank fifth overall in first half defense, while the Dream rank third-best in the league in first half home defense. 

While the Dream do play at a super-fast pace, that may not be the case tonight against the Sun. 

Connecticut plays near the bottom of the league in pace of play and over their last 10 games, the Sun rank 11th out of 12 teams in first half pace. 

The Dream Will Struggle to Score Early

With Howard on the bench for this game, I fully expect the Sun to stifle the Dream offense here and force them to play catch up.

Atlanta also ranks 11th out of 12 teams, but in offensive efficiency in first halves. They get a little better at home, but that may not be the case tonight without Howard. 

I could see the Sun holding the Dream to less than 35 first half points with the Atlanta rookie sitting. However, if the Dream defense comes to play tonight, they may keep this Sun offense below 40. 

With that in mind, I’m betting the first half under with my WNBA picks here and hoping for a struggle on offense from both teams and a pace that favors the Sun. 

WNBA Pick: 1st Half Under 78 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

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1st Half Under 78 (-110)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.