Sun vs. Aces WNBA Picks and Odds Breakdown

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A'ja Wilson #22 of the Las Vegas Aces is guarded by Ezi Magbegor #13 of the Seattle Storm. Ethan Miller/Getty Images/AFP

The two best offenses in the league face off on a stacked Tuesday of WNBA action. Will Connecticut steal one on the road, or will the Aces continue to come out on top?

Connecticut Sun vs. Las Vegas Aces

Tuesday, May 31, 2022 – 09:00 PM EDT at Michelob ULTRA Arena

Connecticut Bad Luck

The Sun had just gotten back their full squad and were looking like one of, if not the top favorite in the WNBA. However, Jasmine Thomas tore her ACL last week and now the Sun have to play the rest of their season without their most veteran guard. 

Winning it all this season is still possible for the Sun, who are extremely deep, but with the way the Aces are playing so far this season, winning tonight, or a playoff series without Thomas will be tough for the Sun. 

Tonight on the road will be their first major test without Thomas. Connecticut has won their last two games without Thomas in the lineup, but the Aces are easily the toughest team they have faced since losing Thomas. 

Las Vegas is behind the Sun in both defensive rating and net rating per 100 possessions this season, but other than that these two teams are incredibly well-matched.

Jonquel Jones and A'ja Wilson will be a battle to watch the entire game, as will the battle between Dearica Hamby and Alyssa Thomas. I expect we’ll see some cross-matching between these two pairs, as well as Brionna Jones getting plenty of time guarding Wilson. 

While I do think defense will be the name of the game for the full game, these two will have to figure out the best matchups on the fly. This could lead to a higher scoring affair early on, and it’s the reason I’m betting the first half WNBA odds tonight. 

The Sharp Pick

So far this season the Sun are one of the slowest paced teams in the WNBA, but that will change tonight against the Aces. The Aces are going to try and push the pace and make the Sun uncomfortable. If the Aces can control the pace of this one, I think the first half total has some Over value. 

Las Vegas played at the league’s second-fastest first half pace, averaging nearly 100 possessions per 48 minutes and nearly 83 per 40 minutes. This has led to a first half offensive rating of 117.5 points per 100 possessions for the Aces. While both of these teams are tops in the league defensively in first halves, good offense almost always beats good defense. 

There are simply too many options for both defenses to account for, at least early in the game. I’m not sold on the Sun just yet against this powerhouse. So far, outside of their most recent win against the 6-3 Mystics, the Sun’s 6-2 SU record has come at the expense of teams that are combined 13-23 SU so far this season. 

I will take the 1st Half Over for my betting picks. I think the Sun’s defense will be in for some regression here and I fully expect a fast-paced first half where the offenses are the stars. 

WNBA Pick: 1st Half Over 84 (-120) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

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1st Half Over 84 (-120)
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